Steven Schier discusses what lies ahead for President-elect George W. Bush

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Steven Schier, chair of the political science department at Carleton College discusses what lies ahead for President-elect George W. Bush and the legacy President Clinton will leave behind.

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(00:00:06) Good morning. This is midday. I'm Mike Edgerly in today for Gary eichten president-elect. George w-- Bush is just a day or so away from naming his first cabinet appointment making his first cabinet appointments news reports suggest at least one Democrat may be on the short list for a cabinet job. The president-elect appears to have two jobs right now putting together a White House and policy staff and healing divisions by one of the brought by one of the most unusual and bitterly contested presidential elections in the nation's history. Stephen sheer. The chair of the political science department at Carleton College is our guest in this our midday to talk about the first days of the Bush transition Professor sheer. Good morning (00:00:49) morning. How are you doing? I'm doing well. Thank you. (00:00:52) Good we talk just about a week ago and we were at least two Court decisions away from learning who the next president elect would be your analysis. Please of these for our listeners who were with us just Week ago what sort of week was it do you think in American politics and American (00:01:09) governance? Well, I can only quote The Grateful Dead and say what a long strange trip. It's been we had a really topsy-turvy week because of the really astounding to astounding Court's decisions really first the Florida Supreme Court ordering a recount of the undercounted votes across the State of Florida and that was very divided chord for two three. And then we had a very divided Supreme Court overturning that and saying the time had run out for recounts essentially ending the presidential race two days ago dramatically suddenly and permanently and I doubt that we will ever see a week like this again. I think it does suggest everyone that courts and elections. Don't mix very (00:01:52) well, but they did it was a volatile mix nonetheless, but it nonetheless yielded a president-elect, (00:01:58) didn't it? It did and what's interesting about it is it seems to have yielded a consensus about this now the This even though it's a brittle one largely results from the behavior of both Bush and Gore two nights ago. Al Gore gave. I thought a very generous and impressive concession speech that I think went a long way towards establishing the legitimacy of the Bush presidency. And in fact, George Bush should be very very grateful to Al Gore for the speech that he (00:02:26) gave. Well, I think some of us were wondering if perhaps the Al Gore speech might be the first Salvo in the presidential election for years from now, but that didn't seem to be the case (00:02:36) that that's hard to say four years is an eternity in politics. I mean one weeks and Eternity in politics look at where we were a week ago. It looked as if we might have dueling slates of electors cut the house deciding acrimony continuing for another month at least and a real really tarnished president. Whomever. It would be now a week later. It's a dramatically different situation. So looking at 2004 from now is in some ways a Fool's errand. (00:03:05) Rather painful for everyone involved to I guess Stephen think that there is another political campaign in our future. (00:03:11) I think we've had enough we've been in the air of what you would call a permanent campaign where a governing takes less of elected officials time and campaigning takes Evermore. And this was I think a particularly pointed an unpleasant example of it the last 36 Days in Florida. And really I think that's one of the really bad Tendencies for our political system. We need get to get back to governing and actually confine our elections to a smaller part of our calendar. (00:03:39) Well, let's look ahead. What is the biggest hurdle the president-elect faces right. Now if you had to name one thing maybe maybe two challenges. (00:03:46) Well, let's see. I would say two challenges first legitimacy in the eyes of the public and that will have to come by establishing an ability to be effective in Washington. So one follows from the other becoming effective in Washington will require a good working relationships with the Democrats as well as the republicans in Congress and a record of accomplishment fairly early in the presidency probably in the form of concrete legislation that is passed into law. I think that's the formula for success for George w-- Bush (00:04:19) but he doesn't have a lot of time does he to to get some credibility established? (00:04:24) Well, the question is whether the public will be indulgent and give him the initial support. He needs to build a build coalitions in Washington from a position of public popularity that may well occur his real problem. Of course is the transition. He only has five weeks to really get it together and that's very difficult when he has over 6,000 appointments (00:04:49) make our guests in this hour of midday is Professor Stephen sheer chair of the political science department at Carleton College. We're talking about the the bush transition and we'd like to hear from you as well to to 76 thousand in the Metro. Two for two two eight two eight outside the metro area Professor share. It does occur to me that if George w-- Bush was trying to mend some fences with the Democrats. He had a really difficult would have been a really awkward situation for him to make calls to Democrats. Even as the even as the election was being decided. He really couldn't he couldn't do much. Could he (00:05:30) when he has neither heat nor Al Gore could really do anything. They were frozen in Amber for about 36 days. It was really impossible to very much at all in terms of transition planning and Coalition building and that's an impediment on the other hand. The fact that we do have a resolution that it is clear. That bush will be the next president is helpful to the country in a way in that we had a clean finish to this it seems unless we have something truly bizarre happen. When the Electoral College votes some electors voting for Gore who were pledged for Bush. I think that's unlikely barring that Villainy, it looks like the future for George Bush is at least perceivable by the bush people and they can do a lot of planning and a lot of work. I think he's very much aided by having Dick Cheney helping with the transition because Dick Cheney has been through several transitions before he's been a white house chief of staff. He's been a defense secretary. He knows how to operate the White House and he's in an invaluable person in this situation. (00:06:34) It would seem that form would take a rollover function as well. Should we saw the president-elect yesterday at a church service the sermon was Unity. He spoke of unity himself. Should we would you advise the president elect to make more public appearances along this line or should he just hunker down basically and put together his (00:06:58) staff. I think that George Bush is executive style will resemble Ronald Reagan's more than Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton had his finger in everything. You know, he was always busy always as always involved in day-to-day Administration Ronald Reagan on the other hand delegated quite a bit. And I think what you're probably going to see from George w-- Bush is delegation of a lot of governing responsibility to his cabinet secretaries, but particularly to his vice president so that the George W bush can concentrate on a few issues and a few themes. So I would actually expect during the transition that he will be more publicly visible than you might expect because I think that will be consistent with his governing style. (00:07:43) Let's go to the phones Bob in St. Paul you're on the air with Steven sheer. (00:07:47) Hi. I just wanted to say that I think that a lot of this talk about unifying under Bush is really wrong. I think that bush won the election by refusing to count undervotes. He could have agreed to a certain kind of certain set of standards. With Gore and those votes could have been counted starting three days after the election then he's put in there by the Supreme Court and now there's this call for unifying under him. Well, his agenda is not my agenda. And when the Republicans were controlling Congress under Clinton, there was no call by them to unify under Clinton and I think this is just a mistake we have difference of opinion difference. We have different goals. I think we need to resist to the Republican agenda not endorse it (00:08:37) for Steve (00:08:38) ensure. Oh, I think that what the caller saying is a very important strain of public opinion see one thing that I think's resulted from the Florida events is that the Democratic base is extremely upset by what has happened understandably. So and I think they're probably going to be energized for 2002. I think this is a very serious political problem in the elections of 2002 for George w-- Bush and probably for governing as well. So I don't think what I don't think the caller is an isolated individual. I think he speaks for many Americans (00:09:12) right and you when you refer to 2002 you're talking about the the midterm (00:09:16) congressional election campaign exactly. So (00:09:20) in 1994 two years into the Clinton President Clinton's first term it was a that was a bitter (00:09:27) campaign in her and I think the caller is right to bring up the fact that the Republicans have been ferociously partisan was Bill Clinton in recent years and that certainly is a context in which it will become more difficult for George w-- Bush to build bipartisan coalition's now I think he does have an opportunity in the short term to try and do that. I think he will be trying to do that. But as he governs and as the 2000 elections become closer and as the honeymoon whatever there is of a honeymoon dissipates, it'll become increasingly difficult for him. (00:10:00) And what about the Republican base George w-- Bush doesn't just have Kratz to worry about he has a lot of Republicans who have a fairly significant agenda of their own (00:10:08) right? I think what you saw in the election was a very clear cultural divide that's been commented upon frequently in the media between a culturally conservative part of America which tends to be in the interior and the southeast and the two coasts that are culturally more liberal and and Minnesota probably fits in that side of the cultural divide, although it's it's a divided State as well. And that is the country that George w-- Bush governs. Now, the Republican base has very different cultural agenda than the Democratic base and trying to govern in a bipartisan fashion while still satisfying the social agenda. The GOP base is a big challenge for George w-- Bush and the question is how is he going to proceed to do this? There are certain hot-button issues like abortion that really energizes Republican base, but nevertheless turn off a lot of Swing voters. So if he were to pursue an aggressive antiabortion agenda, for example, I think that would produce a political difficulties form on these in the number of other social issues. He's got to walk a fine (00:11:10) line. He's really Boxed In by both parties, isn't (00:11:13) it? Potentially now, it'll be interesting to see how much time the Republicans give them. First of all Republicans are very happy to have the White House and I think that by George w-- Bush sometime probably buy some several years whether it will buy them re-election and a unified base in 2004 remains to be (00:11:30) seen. Let's go to the phones Mark you're on with Stephen (00:11:33) share. Hi. How you doing? Morning. All right. I've been fascinated by the past five weeks. Although I believe it served the further polarize the American people but one thing that they came to mind to me while I was watching. It was never brought up by any of the major News Network saying push the president taking over without a mandate from the people, but I guess I kind of look at in the context that old we've had a growing economy, you know and significant growth over the last 10 or 12 years. We've got virtually zero unemployment. It seems to me that an incumbent should have walked right into opposite for Bush even to wage a wage a serious campaign in itself is a mandate and I'll take my comments off here. Thank you, (00:12:17) Steven share. What do you make of that analysis? (00:12:19) Well, I agree with part of it, you know political scientists developed a number of statistical models to predict the outcome of the election and all of them predicted that Al Gore would win between 53 and 60% of the two party vote. Well, he came in at about 50% of the To party vote between geologist counting of the votes between Bush and Gore which is well below what we would expect. So I think the caller is right that in this situation the incumbent party should have won by a substantial margin. And by the way, I think that a lot of Democrats think that and that's going to be a problem for Al Gore if he decides to run for the Democratic nomination in 2004, however, the part of the caller's comment I disagree with is I don't think that necessarily translates into a mandate for George w-- Bush because I mean, let's face it. He came in second in the popular vote. He wins The Electoral College by two votes. This doesn't look like a mandate by any conventional definition of a mandate. (00:13:18) Let's go to the phones again, Jerry. You're on the air with Steven share. Jerry you're on the air with Stephen share heard me you're on the air with Stephen. (00:13:30) Sure. Okay, you're very much. I wanted to say that there isn't any unity and considering a senator bro as a Unity person to come into the cabinet. He is a right-wing Southerner. He just happens to call himself a Democrat and I think a lot of us Northerners are really tired of the Southern pitch on life. And secondly, I can't understand why Jeb Bush has not received more criticism first having a voting system that he knew from the beginning was unfair and now he's trying to set up some sort of a presidential Forum to look at the problems the problems were there before everybody knew it and I'll tell you what, I don't know how George can ever make himself legitimate in my mind. Thank you. (00:14:20) Thank you Steve insurer (00:14:21) and I mean liberal Democrat liberal Democrats are not going George Bush presidency and I just as conservative Republicans did not like the the Bill Clinton presidency and I expect that sort of that sort of partisan divide and that sort of differing evaluations just be a fact of life in American politics and I think the caller was reflecting that but Jeb Bush is getting some criticism. I've seen the number of AP stories in the last two days listing him as one of the losers in this election because he will face an energized Democratic party out to get him in two years when he runs for re-election as for his proposal to reform the Florida election system. I think that's a great idea and I actually think we need reform of our election system not just in Florida, but Nationwide as well and I salute him for for doing something about that. I'm not sure that we were aware that the election system operated as badly as it did and the reason that we were not is because we haven't had an election this close at the national level in a long long time and so as a result You could have all sorts of vote ballots not being counted one way or another but with a lopsided outcome. It didn't matter. We do know that there were between two point one and two point eight million ballots Nationwide thrown out for inappropriate markings and so forth. So it didn't just happen in Florida. In fact the Florida the number of votes thrown out in Florida was about proportionate to its percentage of the population. We have a national problem here that really does need a national solution. Although I'm glad to see Florida take the initiative to do something about (00:15:58) it. Do you see any signs that the nation is ready to tackle this as a national issue as opposed to a state or a county level. (00:16:05) Well, this would be it's a controversial thing because the administration of Elections is traditionally been a state and local responsibility states allowing counties often to decide their own election operations. If you decide to nationalize this for presidential elections, that will be a new National regulatory function now in Enough to Supreme Court in its opinion last week or this week indicated that there are that the equal protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution applies to the counting of votes and presidential election that is a new interpretation and expansive one which indicates that there may be a national role in ensuring equal protection and due process of law possibly through the national administration of election. I personally think a national administration of Elections would be a good thing with uniform national standards. Now, the estimate is that it would cost about 8 billion dollars to have state-of-the-art technology in every Precinct in America. So it's not inexpensive to upgrade to the to the state of the art equipment on the other hand. I would think given our large budget surplus we should be able to find money to do something like that. (00:17:18) And but we also have to have the sort of the collective will do we (00:17:22) not that's right and it's not clear to me that we have the collective will to do this at National level I think you're going to see various States and localities attempting to improve their election procedures as well. They should we really should never be dealing with Chad's again. My hope is that this election will move us beyond the subject of Chad's that's an obsolete technology. We've got to get rid of (00:17:45) it. Let's go back to the phones Patrick and st. Louis Park you're on with Stephen. Sure. (00:17:49) Hello. I just have a few things to say. I think President Bush is going to have an easier time at governing than you think because first of all, he's not a polarizing figure like William Jefferson Clinton was and also there's a lot of blue dog Democrats that may be willing to see his side of it. Also, I believe that the politics of the protests and the contest phase of the election have been ignored with the fact that the Republicans really one 90% of the court cases that occur during that protest and contest phase and So believe that that was a strategy by the Democrats to discredit the presidency of George Bush by using, you know, the courts and everything to you know, by using that those politics just say that his presidency is going to be illegitimate when actually when Louis ruled Forum Clark ruled form only the only course that didn't rule form where the Florida Supreme Court. Thank you Stephen chair. Well, there's a lot there to talk about. I do think that George Bush's demeanor does help him in this situation. We know from his the governorship of Texas that he has worked. Well with Democrats there and is very interested in getting results not scoring partisan points, and I think one of the problems Washington has had in the last 10 years is there's been a lot of food fighting of a partisan sort and relatively few results. That's actually been true in the second term of the Clinton presidency with Republican Congress. He Accomplish some things with Republican Congress, but on a number of issues he drew distinctions in a way that really exacerbated divisions in domestic policy and didn't allow compromise to occur. And I think bush is less likely to do that on the other hand. Let's keep in mind that a Texas Democrat as the caller suggest might well be a blue dog Democrat and there are lots of liberal Democrats in America largely populating the coasts of America, but sending representatives to the US House and Senators to the US Senate will have problems finding any sort of common cause with George w-- Bush so he is going to face a more conflictual environment just given the diversity of opinions represented in the Congress compared to the Texas state legislature is going to face a more calm conflictual environment than he did in Texas and that's going to really put to the test his ability to bring people together. (00:20:21) Let's go to Jason and Minneapolis Jason you're on with Stephen (00:20:24) shear. II I think that his point about the liberal Democrats would definitely apply with our own Senator, mr. Wellstone and the kind of problems that we may see between him and a bush presidency. But the point that I wanted to make is that I think that mr. Shears comment a bit ago about how 2.1 million ballots were thrown out in this country really illustrates that what we saw here was basically a tie and that whoever won the election was going to come out of Victory in in an extreme amount of controversy and I think that over the next two years leading up to the next congressional election will see a lot of talk from democratic pundits over how mr. Bush won in the court system and how they did not think that the outcome was fair and that there should have been a recount and etc. Etc. Whereas however if mr. Gore had won we would have seen the same kind of talk from Republicans. pundits over the next two years over how he had stolen the election in the court system and how they believe that their man was rightfully the Victor and that basically what we have now is a situation where the party that won the executive office is Is going to be facing a large movement of support on the opposite side and that while personally I am a liberal. I think that a bush presidency is going to be one of the best things that's happened to a liberal movement in this country in a long time. (00:22:04) Thank you for your call. Steven. Share your analysis of (00:22:06) that. He's last point is very interesting. When I think that that's quite possible that the bush presidency given the circumstances under which he takes office could energize that the liberal wing of the democratic party in a way that has not been energized in the past. I think right now it is energized very much and that will have a I think a significant effect on the 2002 election. What kind of course we have some governance to occur between now and that election and what bush has to has to demonstrate is that he can accomplish things in a way to produce broad public popularity and support even among some Democrats in a way. Sort of curb that liberal art or so that Republicans can do better in the 2002 elections, but as it stands right now, I think Democrats Democrats are quite energized and he's I think you're caller is also exactly right that if Al Gore had won the presidency, he would face exactly the same problem with a very energized Conservative Republican base who's ready to get Democrats in 2002. It was inevitable that whoever won this election and I think given the fact so many votes Works thrown out. I agree with the caller. It's very hard to see that this was a mandate election for either party. It looks roughly like a tie to me whoever one was going to face. These political problems (00:23:24) are guests in this first hour of midday is Steven sheer the chair of the political science department at Carleton College. We're talking about the the transition from the Clinton presidency to that of George W bush will continue in the next half hour with with Stephen Sharon will also take a look as well at the Clinton Legacy. Stephen Shear is the Of a book that the takes a look at the post modern presidency President Clinton's role in creating that post modern presidency. Thanks to the more than 7,000 members who joined or renewed their membership to Minnesota Public Radio during our last membership Drive. God holiday travel plans, Minnesota Public Radio can help you get there become a member of MPR at the $1,000 leadership Circle level before December 31st, and we'll send you 10,000 Northwest Airlines World perks frequent flyer miles as our thank you gift plus you can claim most of your membership as a charitable contribution at tax time call six five. One two, nine zero fifteen sixteen today or click and join it, Minnesota Public Radio dot org, and thanks coming up at noon today. We'll talk holiday book gift giving with Colleen Coughlin a longtime librarian and a a bookstore owner in the Summers and we'll be taking your calls as well at noon about about books and which ones are good. And which ones are maybe not so good to give as gifts. But first let's get a look at news headlines. Here's Greta Cunningham. Good morning. Mike president-elect Bush could be announcing his first cabinet picks as early as tomorrow Ade say one of the first announcements could be retired General Colin Powell as Secretary of State. A bush meets with Louisiana Democratic senator, John Breaux, who's also a possible cabinet pick Congressional leaders say they hope to vote today on a compromise 450 billion dollar spending package that will end work on the 2001 budget and allow lawmakers to go home for the holidays the compromise includes spending increases to hire more teachers and repair schools among the items dropped from the spending package is more than three billion dollars to help Amtrak build High-Speed Rail facilities freed American businessman, Edmond. Pope says, he was not physically mistreated while being held on spy charges by Russia, but he says he did battle depression during his more than eight months in a Moscow prison Pope is getting a check-up at a US Military Hospital in Germany hurricane-strength winds and heavy snow are making life difficult in the Pacific Northwest at the height of the storm wind gusting up to 90 miles an hour knocked out power to about 200,000 customers in Oregon and Washington the high winds tore roofs off of houses along the Washington coast heavy snow and Fallen trees has made Driving in the region very difficult in Regional news. Senator. Paul wellstone says he will continue to press for a full and accurate account in the death of an American priest who was found dead alongside a busy highway in Kenya and investigation by Kenyan police and FBI agents into the Reverend John Kaiser's death insist. There's no evidence the priest from Perham Minnesota was murdered the forecast for Minnesota today has a winter storm watch for the northern portion of the state tonight and Saturday and a winter storm watch for the far Southeast on Saturday. There's a chance of light snow today Statewide. That's no could possibly be mixed with sleet in the southwest highs today ranging from 10 above in the Northwest 225 above in the Southeast chicken current conditions around the region. Mostly cloudy skies reported in st. Cloud reports cloudy skies and 12 degrees. It's cloudy in Rochester and 15 Duluth reports cloudy skies and 10 degrees and in the Twin Cities Cloudy Skies a temperature of 14 degrees Mike. That's a check on the latest news. Thank you Greta you're listening to midday on minute. The public radio I'm Mike Edgerly in today for Gary. Eichten Our Guest this hour is Stephen sheer chair of the political science department at Carleton College and Stephen sure. You are also the editor of the post modern presidency Bill Clinton's Legacy in u.s. Politics. That's a new book that looks at President Clinton's role in defining us politics and the presidency could you tell us a little bit about that, (00:27:25) please? Well, he did have a significant effect. I think the Democratic party I think became more electorally competitive as a result of his political silent Politics on the other hand. He was a very divisive figure in terms of the culture wars of this country. We have a chapter in there about Clinton impeachment in the culture wars by James Guth the Furman University and he does an extensive public opinion analysis and finds, you know, they're really two Americans regarding Bill Clinton. He was either seen as Darth Vader or Luke Skywalker depending upon your political beliefs and I think we saw that also in this Loop Potential election where Bush and Gore really appealed to very different parts of the country in very different ways. But when we say postmodern in the title what we mean by that is that Bill Clinton faced a very treacherous politics in Washington of partisan, but evenly divided no one really in control in the knives were out and what when we say post-partisan, we are post-modern we mean that Bill Clinton was able to reinvent himself in the eyes of the public a couple times in a way that showed remarkable political skill. He was able to court public opinion by emphasizing different parts of his Persona and his agenda over the last eight years in a way that allowed him to Prevail and be a popular president despite the very difficult Washington politics that he confronted and that's why I think he is one of the most talented politicians of his generation. If not the most talented politician who have overcome his many flaws that we know a lot about it. Last few years and leave office is a popular prison is a remarkable (00:29:06) achievement. Well, it's interesting today on the front page of the New York Times. There are stories about George W. Bush's transition politics and so forth but there's also a photograph of President Clinton with Queen Elizabeth at Buckingham Palace and he's very much on the world stage right now, even though this domestic drama is winding its way through to some sort of conclusion, but there he is. He's still president, (00:29:30) isn't he? Right? And after the Lewinsky scandal he moved much more of his attention to the international Arena really worked hard to try and get a Mideast settlement has been he has traveled more overseas than any president in American history and that's been particularly the case in the last two years. He has Faith chronic frustrations with a republican Congress. And in order to try and burnish his legacy has been more internationally (00:29:57) active and you mentioned earlier that that there was in Fact some effect on the presidential campaign of Clinton's position. I'm curious if in looking ahead to the looking back in analysis of the just completed campaign if you think that Al Gore somehow made a mistake and not utilizing Bill Clinton given his abilities to reinvent himself and to and to deliver a message to the American (00:30:26) people. Well, I know that is the perception amongst some of Bill Clinton's advisors about 10 days ago. I speaking to a senior assistant to the President Clinton on the phone and he referred to the gore campaign as a minor league team. He said we were watching, you know, it's like the Yankees watching a minor league team and not able to really guide them to Victory which is pretty harsh. Although I don't think that's far from the mark because Bill Clinton's re-election campaign in 1996 was a state-of-the-art effort. It was very very well done. And the gore campaign simply did not match that I would have to say that George w-- Bush learned the right Les It's from the Clinton re-election campaign. And that Al Gore did not Al Gore made a critical mistake about a year ago. He fired the pollster who was The Guiding strategic intelligence behind the Clinton re-election campaign of 96. That's Mark pain and instead went with another group of pollsters who believe that a more populist liberal and partisan message was the formula necessary for victory. Bill Clinton did not adopt that strategy in 1996. He hugged the center aggressively in his in his symbolism in his choice of issues as president and so forth and I think that was a strategically and essential and important decision that really helped him to win a fairly comfortable re-election. So I think that is actually one of the important legacies of Bill Clinton is how to how to in a situation where Washington politics and governance is quite difficult how to manage a campaign with the right selection of symbols themes and issues and To get reelected and George Bush learn from that because George Bush essentially locked up his Republican base in the primaries and then move towards the center with this compassionate conservatism theme and that was essential for appealing to enough swing voters to arrange a tie with Al Gore in an environment the really favors the incumbent party. (00:32:24) So you're saying the George W bush learned from Bill Clinton in a way that Al Gore did (00:32:29) not yes and I find that very odd and surprising but it's an important element of Clinton's Legacy. (00:32:35) We're talking to Steven sheer chair of the political science department at College at the Carleton College about George W. Bush's transition. And in this half hour about the legacy of Bill Clinton and it would seem Stephen sure that Bill Clinton's footprint is rather large, isn't (00:32:52) it? Yes, it is as I say, I think he's one of the most impressive politicians of his generation and I actually think that the way to look at the 2000 election and I've said this before publicly is that you basically had to choose one half of Bill Clinton Bill Clinton is very bright man. He's one of the smartest people ever to be president and he is a great person at political in terms of political skills. He feels your pain he communicates well on the podium as well as one on one. Well, I think with with Al Gore you got the brainy side of Bill Clinton, but clearly he did not have the inner personal and political politically persuasive skills that Bill Clinton had that was clear in the debates and I think in in a number of his public speeches with with George Bush who got the empathetic the warm personal campaigning side of Bill Clinton, but it's quill clear that George w-- Bush does not have the mental Acumen of Bill Clinton. So essentially you had a choice between 1/2 a Bill Clinton or another half of Bill Clinton and I I think the public was a would have preferred to have had the whole (00:33:59) package and said we chose almost sort of (00:34:02) Neither. Well, we chose the Kinder gentler empathetic side. It seems to me but not a person who would will be distinguished by his intellectual treats (00:34:12) 2276 thousand or one eight hundred two, four two two eight 282276 thousand in the Metro outside the metro area 802 for 228282 speak with Steven Shearer about the the Clinton Legacy the the transition to George W. Bush Bill Clinton seemed to make the most of the presidency as a bully pulpit in a way that Ronald Reagan seem to George w-- Bush and for that matter Al Gore don't seem to have the oratorical skills (00:34:44) of either going to work quite right? (00:34:47) What? What do you want? That's going to hurt George W. Bush one would (00:34:51) think I would think unless he develops his skills or finds a better way to Showcase them and I think one way to Showcase them is in a more interactive environment and Clear that George w-- Bush is a bit stiff as a public speaker. And in fact, so is Al Gore although Al Gore speech. This week is the best one I've ever seen him. Give and one wonders where that Al Gore was during the campaign and might it would have helped if he had appeared before this. So yes, I would agree with you that both Reagan and Clinton were great at public persuasion. However, they were they had very different governing Styles. Ronald Reagan did focus on a few themes and was mainly a public spokesperson sort of a chairperson of the board Bill Clinton was into everything on policy. He was not removed. And in fact that made managing the White House with him difficult because he had his finger in so many pies so he had a very different governing style and than Ronald Reagan, but he did have oratorical abilities that Mark I think Clinton and Reagan is the two most impressive public orators in the presidency in the Decades, (00:36:03) let's go to the phone Scott in Minneapolis. You're on with Stephen sheer. (00:36:06) Yes. Thank you. Very good show George Bush had claimed he was going to restore honor and integrity to the White House, but I remember reading about two weeks before the election that the Bush campaign was fearful that they could win the electoral vote but lose the Electoral College and they had a plan in place to essentially continue the campaign Beyond election day so that they could sway some Electoral College votes over to them based on a moral Authority that they had won the majority of the vote now to me that's either hypocrisy or contempt for democracy and I would conclude that honor and integrity are leaving the White House not arriving (00:36:45) Steve. Have you heard that? (00:36:46) Yeah, that's plan I had read about and I guess I what I would say about that is that probably if if George Bush had come into that situation, they might have pursued that plan although one can ever Be sure about that. I think it's clear that both Bush and Gore in their situations. We're going to do whatever they possibly could to win the presidency after all when you get this close, you may never get this close again, and you had better pull out all the stops. So it did not surprise me the last 35 or 36 Days of bush and Gore were tactically extremely flexible trying all sorts of things to try and either maintain the Florida margin as Bush did or to overcome it as Gore did I see sort of a moral equivalence between the two of them in the Florida battle and and I would simply see that bush plan as part of that moral equivalence that is once you get in a situation and you're close to winning you do whatever you can within the law and the Constitution to win (00:37:49) speaking of winning. It must be especially galling to Bill Clinton that he was or the campaign of Al Gore was unable to create a democratic successor for him Ronald Reagan got George. Senior into the White House, but Bill Clinton's successor couldn't pull it off. (00:38:07) Well, but remember that that Bill Clinton really was not used much by the gore campaign at the gore campaign concluded early based on their public opinion polling that a lot of Swing voters did not like Bill Clinton as a person and would probably react negatively towards Al Gore if he campaigned as the heir to the Clinton mantle now that may well have been true. But the fact is that Al Gore underperformed what historically we would expect his party to do in this election. So I think there's a lot of second-guessing it can be done here. Certainly Bill Clinton believes that he was not used as effectively as he could have been during the fall campaign and one has to wonder if he had been brought into campaign in certain areas where Al Gore lost narrowly whether that might have made a difference (00:38:57) Steve insurers our guests. You can reach him at 2276. In the Metro one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight were talking about the Clinton Legacy the transition of George w-- Bush. Let's go to Sharon in Rochester. You're on with Steven share. (00:39:12) Thank you. I wonder if Professor sheer would comment on a perception that I have about George Bush and that is that he may be a warm and friendly person, but I don't perceive him as being a strong leader at all. And I have great concern that this Administration will be managed by people from his father's Administration and my perception is based on the presence of Dick Cheney and Jim Baker throughout the last five weeks speaking for George Bush and whenever George Bush was called upon to speak about these events. He really emerged as I thought an opinionated and inarticulate. Thank you. I'll take my answer off the air Stephen sheer. I think was a conscious strategy of the bush people over. I several weeks to keep George w-- Bush away from public comments about what was happening in the Florida battle probably sort of stay above The Fray as it were because one thing we noticed in public opinion is that George to the the public impression of George w-- Bush over the last 35 days went up as he stayed away from The Fray and that the Public Public view of Al Gore went down as he assiduously in speeches and press conferences tried to present his message about Florida. So I think that was a deliberate strategy. And by the way, I think it did actually help but George w-- Bush and public opinion to do that. Now, what will what will it be? Like now that the Florida controversy is concluded George W bush will be out in public much more. I think although I think he will depend heavily on Dick Cheney to help with the operations of the administration the People are aware of the fact that they need to make this Administration not George Herbert Walker Bush term to you know, his father's second term. So I think that they will try and minimize the number of appointments of people from the father's Administration. There will be a few and they'll be very high profile but there will need to be a number of other high-profile people who are not from his father's Administration. Also, I think it it wasn't perhaps not politically mistake to rely heavily on Dick Cheney. He is of the four candidates for president vice president opinion polls find that he is in many ways the most popular as a for which is interesting and in fact his public presence during the transition a seems to have been well received by the American public. He is an extremely evil man. I've interviewed him personally when he was in the house as minority whip. He's a very smart man and I think he knows how to run things and I think that George w-- Bush would be well served. By delegating a fair amount of authority to him after all Bill Clinton did delegate unusual authority to Al Gore. So we have a precedent for that and wouldn't surprise me if that president has continued in this (00:42:14) Administration. Let's go to Patrick and Plymouth you're on with Stephen cheer. (00:42:18) All right. Good morning. Thanks for taking my call. Sure. I'm not a quick question. I agree that President Clinton is just incredible politician and credible or Raider and that he's able to change his public Persona a couple of times. I wonder what you think that downsides to that are if it's sort of speaks of disingenuousness. And also what do you think George George Bush will have the same problem? Thank you. Well, there is a downside in the downside is that we discovered in the Lewinsky scandal that what he appeared to be is not always what he was and that is that was a real problem for him because we know that a majority of American public personally to this day disapproves of Bill Clinton while a majority approves of his job as a job he's doing as And the Slick Willie tag, I think is stuck with him and will be in the history books because of the Lewinsky Affair and other matters that did not reflect. Well on his personal behavior. That is the downside of being so politically a depth is that sometimes you can get caught being inconsistent or less than true to the ideals that you espouse and unfortunately that is part of Bill Clinton's record. (00:43:30) It's almost two years now since the move to impeach Bill Clinton has he had all shed that slick Willy image that you just described at all has that left him in any sense at all? (00:43:44) I think that he actually survived that better than many people expected and one reason is that I think that as John Pitney in one of the chapters of my book about Quentin indicates, he met the one result of the impeachment battle was that his opponents tended to Come out of that looking extreme judgmental and and threatening in some ways and that really hurt the Republican party. I think in the midterm election of 1998 it an unusual way. So it's clear that his enemies didn't necessarily personally benefit by taking on Bill Clinton on the other hand. It's true that the personal disapproval of Clinton in the public mind is still there. And I think that that's part of his image that is more or less permanent. (00:44:29) Now, it's is there a lesson for the opposition party the Democrats in this case from Hal what happened to the Republicans when they went after Clinton sodium Italy there's something for them to (00:44:42) learn. Yeah, and I think I think a politicians both parties in Washington figured this out you if you're going to beat a president should beat him on the issues. Now, you're not going to be able to beat them on on on the personal comportment necessarily that the public really does make a distinction between the president as person and the president as Of a particular set of a job with a particular set of responsibilities. And so I think that what you what you will see is partisan jousting can find more to issues and less to personal matters and that's probably to the good (00:45:19) if memory serves there was a great deal of bitterness on behalf of the the Bush campaign in 1992, the the campaign of George W bush senior George Bush Senior that Clinton took away essentially what was his legacy another shot at at four more years to solidify his role in American history. Do you think that's that played any role at all in this current campaign that was there any residual bitterness from the from the bush Clan towards Gore over the way the Father Was Defeated so handily by by Bill Clinton in 1992. (00:45:55) Well, I think there probably was but you know, I I mean the bush Clan are human beings. Human beings are subject to such feelings, but they did a good job of keeping it out of the press which I think was extremely important because bitterness makes a public figure look small and looking small is not good in the eyes of the public. We know that Bill Clinton for example is extremely bitter about the impeachment controversy and yet he has not really paraded that out for our public inspection with the exception of that one speech he gave shortly after being deposed by the grand jury concerning the Lewinsky Affair. It was one time. He really let his bitterness out and that didn't help him. So bitterness is just a given in politics. I'm sure there's a lot of bitterness on that Al Gore feels personally right now and I think that's inevitable because politicians like the rest of us are human beings and when you get when you face a major challenge or disappointment bitterness is going to be part of your thinking so a but good politicians Major League Tietjens know how to put a cork in that and not let it show (00:47:05) well next week George W bush arrives in Washington. He has a meeting with Al Gore and and with President Clinton. I'm wondering if you could give us some analysis of what will take place in in each of those conversations. (00:47:17) Well, I think what's I doubt that there's going to be a lot of substantive progress that results in those conversate from those conversations this what matters in with those meetings is the symbolism and how the tone of the meeting progresses if the tone is constructive if there is a comma t c om ity and an appearance of mutual respect and a cord that I think will reassure the American public that the transfer of power will be peaceful and respectful that the government does in fact work that we can have confidence in our institutions. And that is the major message that the major positive message that can come out of those meetings (00:47:58) next week Stephen chair. Thanks for joining us again today. (00:48:01) My pleasure. (00:48:02) Stephen Shear is chair of the political science department at Carleton College. He is also the editor of the new book the post modern presidency Bill Clinton's Legacy and u.s. Politics. He's the editor of that book and Stephen. Sure. Thank you for joining us this morning. You're listening to midday on Minnesota Public Radio. I'm Mike Edgerly in today for Gary eichten. A confession a correction and a telling look at what's in a name. (00:48:29) The emphasis is actually on in so it's Intel and it actually was derived from integrated (00:48:36) Electronics. I'm David brancaccio the full story plus the latest in World business later on Marketplace from PRI. That's today at 6:30 here on Minnesota Public Radio time now for the writers Almanac And here is the writers almanach for Friday. It's the 15th of December 2000. It's the birthday of novelist Edna O'Brien born in tuam grainy County Clare Ireland 1932 a little village in the west of Ireland. She left County Clare when she was 14 to move to Dublin where she became a pharmacist and married and had two sons and brought out her first novel the country girls in 1960 about two Irish girls who leave their strict homes for the excitement of life in Dublin. It was the first of a Trilogy which included the Lonely Girl and girls in their married Bliss, which came out in the early. 60s those books and others of Edna O'Brien's were banned in Ireland for being obscene and pornographic because of the frankness of the dialogue and the fact that they dealt with the sexuality of young women. She's written many books since including Johnny. I hardly knew you and House of Splendid isolation. It's the birthday of the poet Muriel rukeyser born in New York City 1913 author of four Decades of poetry concerned much of it with social issues. It's the birthday of Betty Smith born in Brooklyn 1896 famous for her very successful. First novel which came out in 1943 A Tree Grows in Brooklyn. It's the birthday of playwright Maxwell Anderson born in Atlantic, Pennsylvania. 1888. His first successful play was what price glory in 1924 also author of Key Largo Candle in the Wind The Bad Seed. It's the birthday of the inventor of the first automobile built and operated in the United States Charles Duryea born in Canton, Illinois, 1861. He and his brother Frank were the inventors they demonstrated their first automobile on the streets of Springfield, Massachusetts on September the 22nd 1893. It was on this day in 1815, Jane Austen's novel. Emma was published a day before her 40th birthday in which she said one half of the world cannot understand the pleasures of the other and it was on this day in 1791. The American Bill of Rights was ratified as amendments to the US Constitution and freedom of religion freedom of speech freedom of the press the right to assemble the right to a speedy public trial were guaranteed. Here's a poem for today by Charles bukovsky to lean back into it like in a chair the color of the sun as you listen to Lazy piano music and the aircraft overhead are not at War where the last drink is as good as the first and you realized that the promises you made yourself were capped. That's plenty that last about the promises. What's not so good is that the few friends you had are dead and they seem Irreplaceable as for women. You didn't know enough early enough and you knew enough to late and if more self analysis is allowed it's nice that you turned out well honed that you arrived late and remained generally capable outside of that not much to say Except you can leave without regret until then a bit more Amusement a bit more endurance leaning back into it like the dog who got across the busy street not all of it was good luck. A poem by Charles Bukowski to lean back into it from what matters most is how well you walk through the fire published by black Sparrow press and used by permission here on the writers almanach brought to you by the people at 21 North Main.com where Book Lovers find 13 million gently read Classics bestsellers and rare masterpieces on the web at 21 North Main.com be well do good work and keep in touch. Regional broadcast of the writers Almanac are supported by market Banks your community bank offering a broad range of financial services for your business and personal needs you're listening to midday on Minnesota Public Radio. Good afternoon. I'm Mike Edgerly in today for Gary eichten a reminder coming up in just about a minute national public radio news than book talk. On the next All Things Considered Governor Ventura test drives a new cleaner burning snowmobile. We'll have that story plus all the day's news on the next All Things Considered weekdays at 3:00 on Minnesota Public Radio. This is Minnesota Public Radio. We have Cloudy Skies 14 degrees at knoo wfm 91.1 Minneapolis st. Paul Twin Cities weather for this afternoon light snow in the afternoon the highs around 20 degrees tonight this afternoon, then tonight snow likely the lows around 15 degrees more snow tomorrow turning colder and much windier. From NPR news in Washington, I'm Frank statio president elect George W bush might offer the cabinet position of energy secretary to Louisiana Senator John Breaux today, but it's not certain if bro, a Democrat would accept the position from Austin Janet heimlich has (00:55:12) more - we'll have lunch with bro and then posed for photos bushes. AIDS have said that the president-elect is planning on naming Democrats to his cabinet, but it's not certain that bro is on board. The senator has expressed reluctance to leave a seat at this time. His departure could tip the Senate's 50/50 balance to Republicans and Democrats have been increasing pressure on bro to stay but even if bro declines bushes AIDS are ready to spin Bush adviser, Karen Hughes said that if nothing else Rose visit would be part of bushes reaching out to members of the democratic party Bush could announce his staff as early as Saturday. I'd say is first announcement could be General Colin Powell a Secretary of State for NPR news on Janet. Hi. In (00:55:56) Austin, the lights are out at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. The side of the world's worst nuclear accident has been shut down for good. The closure comes 14 years after another reactor at the Ukrainian plant blew up the explosion sent a radioactive Cloud over Europe thousands of cleanup workers reportedly have since died millions of other people suffered radiation related ailments. Today's closing is the result of intense International pressure Israeli soldiers have shot dead at least five more Palestinians today, the violence raged even as the two sides held their highest level meetings since fighting broke out in September the leaders discussed resuming peace talks and PR Jennifer Ludden reports. Three of the Palestinians killed in the West Bank were members of Yasser arafat's feta movement Palestinians charged Israel with political assassination. What they said was the latest in a series of such killings this week in another incident in Gaza. Israel's Army shot dead a man. It said tried to stab a soldier there also scuffles in Old city where Israel again tightly controlled. The number of worshippers allowed to attend Friday Muslim prayer the violence followed a late-night meeting between Arafat and Israeli foreign minister Shlomo. Ben-ami, the two sides say they'll hold more meetings next week. And if they agreed to resume peace talks, those will move to Washington Israeli Prime Minister a hood Barack is eager to reach a peace deal before snap elections in February Jennifer Ludden NPR news Jerusalem, a leading Human Rights group today appealed for quick action in dealing with Serbia on alleged human rights violations Human Rights Watch called on Yugoslavia to cooperate fully with the UN war crimes tribunal in the arrest and transfer of former president Slobodan milosevic milosevic and others have been indicted by the tribunal in The Hague. They're accused of having a hand in atrocities committed during the Kosovo War last year stock prices are sharply lower at this hour on Wall Street the Dow down 209 the NASDAQ down 131. This is NPR support for NPR. Comes from Fox Searchlight in the film quills inspired by the writings of the Marquis De Sade starring Geoffrey Rush Kate Winslet Joaquin Phoenix and Michael Caine open in select cities with news from Minnesota Public Radio. I'm Greta Cunningham. Minnetonka based Cargill is recalling almost 17 million pounds of turkey products at the request of the Centers for Disease Control. Cargill's Mark. Klein says the CDC has diagnosed 25 people with listeria osis and are linking it back to the company. The illness can be fatal and causes high fever and nausea and also causes miscarriages and stillbirths client says anyone who's bought cargill's ready to be poultry products between May 1st and December 11th should return it to the place of (00:58:35) purchase Nationwide, even though we may not have distributed to every state there are secondary Distributors and we felt it was just best to say, this is (00:58:46) Nationwide. Well, I wouldn't say how much the recall will cost you database Tequesta cam says, it has laid off about 120 employees 42 percent of its Workforce. He done a company offers a website for information technology workers seeking jobs and companies looking for workers minneapolis-based Xcel Energy company recorded record power consumption. This week Xcel says below zero temperatures pushed power demands to a new high at about six o'clock Monday evening. The old record was set on December 20th of 1999. The power demand was measured in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan North Dakota and South Dakota. The National Weather Service is predicting a winter storm for South Dakota and Southwestern Minnesota tonight and tomorrow an arctic front will move across South Dakota into Minnesota this afternoon bringing high winds and bitterly cold temperatures. There is a winter storm watch in effect for the north tonight and Saturday and in winter storm watch for the far Southeast on Saturday light snow is in the forecast date why today that's no could be mixed with sleet in the southwest highs today ranging from ten in the Northwest to 25 in the Southeast right now in the Twin Cities cloudy skies and 14 degrees. That's a news update. I'm Greta Cunningham.

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