6 minutes past 11. This is a test of the emergency alert system. Programming on Minnesota Public Radio is supported by Dayton's oriental rug departments in downtown Minneapolis Saint Paul and at the Southdale Brookdale and Rosedale home stores. And good morning. Welcome to mid-day on Minnesota Public Radio. I'm very active glad you could join us people of the Irish Republic and the people of Northern Ireland will be voting tomorrow on an agreement which could finally end the violence in Northern Ireland the outcome of the boat seems to be a shirt according to the polls. Anyway, the Good Friday agreement as it's called will be approved by about 90% of the Catholics voting on plants and at least 55% of the Protestants building on the agreement are also expected to vote Yes today on. Midday. We're going to discuss what happens after that expected. Yes vote comes in joining us here in the Studio's Macalester College college political science Professor Andrew Latham. He teaches courses on International conflict. He's traveled it conducted research and Ireland over the years. We also invite you to join our conversation. If you have a question or comment about the meaning of Tomorrow is historic vote on Northern Ireland. Give us a call to 276 thousand is our Twin City area number to 276. I was outside the Twin Cities 1 800 to +422-828-227-6000 or one 800-242-2828. As we preview tomorrow's historic vote on Northern Ireland a professor. Thanks for coming in today. My pleasure are the analysts correcting Anka is the is the agreement certain to pass it certain to pass? I think the question is always being with what kind of majority simple 51% endorsement on the part of either of the two communities in the North or a simple majority in the Republic of Ireland. The south of Ireland is getting to be an adequate in terms of generating or reflecting the kind of political support would make this a sustainable deal over the long run. Numbers in some sense in some ways are encouraging. It's clear that both the Constitutional nationalist in the North End Republican Sinn Fein are supporting the steel to the tune of 96 97 per-cent and that's very very encouraging in terms of taking the gun out of Irish politics a little more troubling is the more measured and less enthusiastic support on the part of the unionist. I've seen numbers ranging from 52 to 50 52% opposed to 55% in favor at the numbers dipped in the aftermath of mr. Adams infelicitous performance with some of the release prisoners 11 or 12 days ago. They seem to have bounced back a little bit but there's not the 6065 70% support amongst the unionist that many people at Hope For What Happens Next if the agreement is approved tomorrow? What's the what's the next step then in the process in the near-term Northern Ireland still has to get over the marching season, which is a. Every. Titan sectarian tensions things could happen there which could in fact derail this peace process still in a longer run over the next year. So we have a number of commissions that have to report on the form of policing which is very important issue in Northern on a very contentious issue as well. It's been put off it wasn't addressed in the Good Friday agreement precisely because the parties couldn't do a deal so I can put off for 12 months or so and that will have to resolve that reform of the administration of justice in Northern Thailand. Also, very contentious so-called diplock courts with your non-jury courts for trying to rush defenses are very offensive to many of the Nationals. Especially the Republican Wing the Nationals community. So they're still a number of hurdles to get over but the point I think is that once this deal is done and divorced and the appropriate legislation was enacted. We have a framework in place that will not resolve the conflict but will allow the ethno-political conflict perspective there for at least 30 years to begin to be resolved in a peaceful democratic. American constitutional fashion, why do so many Protestants seem to have a problem with with the agreement? They have a number of problems some of which go to the core of their very self Identity or understanding of who they are in the world and some of which are on my technical details many unionist view this as the beginning of a process which will lead them into you into a United Ireland that may not sound terribly offensive to outside observers. Both of them. They see themselves as British. It's as if you asked Americans all of a sudden to become Mexican of Canadian, they would recoil of course Prospect. They see the the agreement regarding north-south bodies administrative bodies to be the introduction of Dublin into the internal affairs of what they consider to be an integral part of Great Britain. So they find that offensive but in the short run in the more media sense with a fine defensive is the possibility of gunman, which is there a code word of some Times for Ira Gorillaz to be involved in government. Now, they find this to be reprehensible intensive. They also have some serious concerns about the way in which the ruc the Royal Ulster constabulary the northern Irish police will be reformed in the in the long run. This is always being there police force. It's always been there bulwark against what they consider Ira terrorism and Republican terrorism and they're very concerned about the way in which that might be reformed in ways that will leave them exposed to some kind of residual or perhaps not so residual political violence. So they're very deep reasons why they're concerned about this and then there are more immediate practical security-based concerns as well or talking to shower about the agreement that's going to be voted on tomorrow both in the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland an agreement that was worked out to call the Good Friday agreement and supporters say it will lay the groundwork or could very well lay the groundwork for an end to the law. Long-running violence in Northern Ireland. If you have a question or comment about the bullet coming up tomorrow if you'd like some more information on just what's at stake what's likely to happen next? Give us a call Macalester College political science Professor Andrew Latham has joined us the shower to take your questions Twin City area number is 227-6002 Twin Cities. 1-800. 242-282-8227 6001 802-422-8284 Scholars from Duluth Richard go ahead place. I believe that the Patterson militants Northern Ireland or developing a situation that will put the IRA and Sinn Fein in a win-win situation because if it's defeated in the Protestant North the election campaign could say in the ira we came to the table. We negotiated we wanted peace. I would like that. That's very interesting inside because it's clear that as Iration famous political strategy has evolved over the years especially in recent years. Mr. Adams has try to represent himself as a reasonable man as a Statesman as Peacemaker and he has gone to considerable lengths to bring along the IRA with him that's important to recall that Sinn Fein in the area related but distinct and mr. Adams has has had to have to play a particular role here in terms of moving the peace process forward but also not leaving the IRA Gorillaz behind any way to get to the to the comment. He has represents himself very effectively as a peacemaker indeed. He has being a peacemaker and if this agreement now is frustrated by the union is community and especially by the Loyalists the extreme part of the Union Community, then that will leave. Mr. Adams and Sinn Fein in the position to represent themselves as as peace. She made a good-faith effort to resolve this conflict along constitutional Democratic Alliance and they will then be in possession Point their fingers at the unionists and the loyalist and say while you frustrated the process and let it be on your head. Apparently British Prime Minister Tony Blair head up question and answer session on the BBC here recently and virtually all the questions had to do with the question of Sinn Fein whether or not they have truly or whether the IRA has truly Forsworn violence and whether I should faint should be allowed to participate in any future peace process unless there is a firm guarantee that the violence is off the table and how's that going to get resolved? That's a tricky one that the culture if you like strategic culture of Sinn Fein Ira historically has been one of No Surrender. They have never in the long history of the IRA surrendered or turned over arms to the British. Add during times of Peace. They've simply done away with their arms put in during the mid back Gardens Etc. So it's unlikely that there will be a formal turnover of weapons. This is another one of those issues that has to be resolved so-called decommissioning issue at this place very very poorly amongst the unionists. Of course, he want from guarantees Ironclad guarantees. In fact that the gun will be taken out of our politics and that's the the young man will not have a voice in the future of governance in Northern Ireland in a sense. This is unreasonable because we won can't imagine reconciliation in South Africa for example, not including. Mr. Mandela of course was a gun man of sorts in his day. In other words in order to do this peace agreement. The Union Community has to sit down not only with the Constitutional National singles, but also with the Republicans those who favor the use of violence. So the first thing we'll have to sit down and do a deal with them. Second of all, they have to understand. I think that it's unlikely that they'll be a formal surrender. On the part of the IRA involving a turnover of arms be practical measures taken to reduce the circulation of arms in the north to get the arms weapons out of politics, but there's not going to be I don't think I Surrender UPS on the part of the IRA and formal turnover of weapons not even symbolic that I would suggest why isn't it reasonable for the unionists to insist if not surrender humiliating surrender, at least turn the guns in I think it's very reasonable for them to insist on it, especially from their perspective without wanting to sound as if I am apologizing for Ira and the engine fan will not disarm while there is a 6,000 member Protestants an Army regiment in the north while there is eight or nine thousand armed paramilitary police that serve the unionist community in the North or simply not going to do that. What will happen I think over. I miss that the social support for the IRA. If this if this deal takes hold and beans to address the social underpinnings of the conflict, then the social basis of support for the IRA will begin to evaporate. And once that happens will be continued to be acts of violence on the part of extremist, but the broad social base of support for this kind of armed struggle will go away. And eventually you will see the most natural that diminution of that dimension of the struggle. The weapons will go away on their own accord if the social basis for the struggle that is addressed or talk in the shower about the vote tomorrow. The upcoming vote on the Northern Ireland peace agreement Macalester College political science Professor Andrew Latham has joined us to help us or through or what's at stake here with likely to follow the boat. If you'd like to join our conversation. If you have a question or comment give us a call to 276 thousand in the Twin City area to 276 thousand outside the Twin Cities one 802-4228 28227 6000 or one 802-422-8288, please. Just concerned. I'd like to know some background just for I have the orange men are concerned. Who they are and what that's all about and it seems as though they once a year they walk through a Catholic District. And that why do they continue to do this. William of Orange who was king of Britain and in seventeenth-century their role in politics of Northern Ireland. First of all there a sectarian organization that is to say membership is only open to Protestants of various Persuasions. They are lichens by the Catholic Community to the Ku Klux Klan into this kind of politics they play but that's perhaps an oversimplification. It had a very close relationship with a northern Irish state for many years, which is to say that many of the senior members of the northern Irish establishment. We're also Orangemen. This is a fraternal organization. It's an organization. That designed to promote and protect the interests of the Protestant community in Northern Ireland, which is always in itself is being under siege and it's a kind of other side fraternal organization the marches. I have a long history there triumphal is March's designed to demonstrate on a repeated basis on an original ritualised way the superiority of the Protestant tradition in Northern Ireland over the Catholic tradition and between well over each summer. There are number of very important part is not only conducted by Watchman. But by a number of other Protestant or unionist fraternal organizations have become an increasing source of contention, they March through nationalist a Catholic neighborhoods in a way that is very intimidating and designed to be intimidating and of course generates all sorts of resistance on the part of the Nationalist Community every year. This is an issue every year. This generates intense sectarian Patriots Diner. And it's one of the issues that has to be addressed in the context of this piece of Bremen. There is a commission which is supposed to OK certain marches or redirect them when they might go through Catholic neighborhoods, but as we saw last year and indeed the year before sometimes the northern Irish state in fact quite often gives into the Orangemen. It doesn't want that kind of Confrontation. One of the reasons. Why there this so Good Friday agreement had to be done so quickly was timing it had to be signed sealed and delivered before the marching season in the summer. Otherwise the concern watch the fees height and sectarian tensions would really derail the process. If you have to have a referendum in in July Late, July or early August, it would be conducted against the backdrop of these sectarian marches through Catholic neighborhoods with all the tensions that they generate. Is there any indication that has the the various factions at least presumably move toward some Peace agreement that they that the Unions would be willing to give up these Marching In the marches or at least avoid the cafeteria don't conduct these marches the issue is where they conduct them and the geography of the demographic geography of Northern Ireland has changed so that the traditional Roots which often which some of which many of which in fact we're through traditional Protestant neighborhoods are now because of the changing settlement patterns in Northern Ireland now run right through recently become Catholic neighborhoods. What the Catholic Community wants someone specific Catholic communities want is for these marches to be re-routed so that they're not through their Community. Once again the principle of consent which the Union as people invoke on a regular basis is being invoked here by the Catholic Community. Do not March where you are not wanted. 2276 thousand if you'd like to join our conversation this hour we're talking about the situation in Ireland and Northern Ireland the big vote Tomorrow People in both the Republic of Ireland and the people of Northern Ireland will be voting on these so-called Good Friday agreement which would set up a whole process for presumably bringing some peace finally to Northern Ireland right now. It's assumed that the agreement will be approved. The real question is what happens next joining us this hour to talk about that Macalester College political science Professor Andrew Latham again, if you'd like to join our conversation to 276 thousand or one 800-242-2828 Kim go ahead place. I wanted to know that the effect of the hunger strikes in the early 80s. I'm in Long Kesh prison. On the process today kind of how that played out with the British government and there was a lot of going back and forth on that whole thing and and just just kind of, you know, if you can somehow connect to that with today cuz I know that was a major event in the history of the IRA. An excellent question because in fact the the hunger strikes in the early 80s catalyzed the current peace process. I don't think this peace process would have developed quite the same way without the hunger strikes. The hunger strikes is a reminder of your listeners were Ira prisoners who are being forced to wear prison. Garb is part of the British government attempt to criminalize the struggle to politicize and represent the IRA a gorilla's ass stupid criminals part of that process was to get into a prison uniforms. They refused to wear prison uniforms they went on the blanket that if they wouldn't wear anything and so on and so forth Bonnie the hunger strikes and number of them died including Bobby Sands in France use in a few others this surprised. Mrs. Thatcher's government in London in that there was an in the deaths really generated a lot of support for the IRA amongst the Catholic Nationals Community Support, which it has not had for the previous decade. What effect did this have first of all of forced the British and Irish governments to sit down at the table and Begin to negotiate some kind of an agreement. So we have the anglo-irish agreement of 1985 coming out of this and also Force the moderate or constitutional nationalists in the north who were afraid of losing part of their constituents either electric tuition thing it forced them to begin to develop a common what's called sometimes a pain nationalist front involving the Irish government the Sinn Fein and the sdlp which is the main constitutional nationalist party this set in train the process which is let us do today when we have a negotiated agreement that might lead to some kind of social peace in the future. So the hunger strikes are absolutely essential and crucially catalytic to the overall peace process if the agreement is approved and the in the process moves along as outlined in the agreement is Northern Ireland remain part of Britain, then does it become part of Ireland. Does it become a separate country? What happens to it remains part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and North Ireland unless and until a majority of the people of Northern Ireland as demonstrated through a referendum determine that they no longer want to be part of the United Kingdom and all three part of the Republic of Ireland built into this agreement is the principle of consent which is to say that there can be no constitutional change no change in the Constitutional status of Northern Ireland unless and until the people of Northern Ireland demonstrate to referendum that they want such a thing to occur. So it remains it's not an independent country. Although there are north-south bodies linking Belfast and Dublin an administrative sense. There. It is not know that it's not becoming part of the Republic of Ireland which has been very difficult for Jerry items to sell to his Republican constituency, by the way. There's no change there for a until some referendum terms that they should be changed sometime down the road does the Republic of Ireland have any interest in Northern Ireland becoming part of it articles 2 and 3 of the Republic constitution of the Irish Republic ale specific claim to the territory of the north. And in fact part of this agreement is that the that the Irish Republic has to repeal those parts of the Constitution and no longer lay claim technically speaking to the north. So there is a constitutional Dimension to this which cannot be ignored does the Dublin government actually want to administer Northern Ireland and I suspect not in the short run perhaps if down the road at some of the social tensions have been used and it looks like the transition to a United Ireland would be relatively smooth then I think Dublin might be enthusiastic. But neither the Irish people in the Republic of Ireland North think the government of the Republic of Ireland are Keen to assume all the Abilities for security and whatnot that would attach to some kind of reunification of northern and southern Ireland. There was a paragraph in one of the stories written about this agreement and that I was reading that indicated something to the effect that the people of Northern Ireland would have an opportunity to choose whether they were British or Irish. That's what I said about the heart of this conflict is that you have two social cultural groups occupying the same area at Each of which view themselves in terms of their identity and mutually antagonistic ways the Nationalist Community the Catholic Community sees itself as Irish and to varying degrees is Gaelic and the Protestants are you in this community sees itself as British ulster-scots Angela Scots would have anglo-irish rather whatever the case may be. In order to allay the fears of both of those communities because those identities are mutually incompatible in order to and that's really been the core Dynamic of this conflict in order to get us beyond that with this agreement creates a space in which it is possible within the context of Northern Ireland to be British to think of yourself as British and to have that tradition respect to be Irish to be accepted as Irish and have that tradition as respected. What do they both claim both heritages? The belief here is that this will begin to allay the fears of both communities that there can only be one public identity in Northern Ireland either Ulster unionist Protestant or Irish Catholic involved what I said, he teaches political science at Macalester College teaches courses on International conflict. He's travelled and conducted research in Ireland over the years. He's joined us at this hour. To preview tomorrow's historic boat on an agreement that some say will or could bring peace to Northern Ireland great opportunity to get your questions answered on just how that agreement would work and what happens next. If you'd like to join our conversation to 276 thousand Twin City area number to 276 thousand. I'll try the Twin Cities. You can reach us toll-free at 1 800 to +422-828-227-6802 for 22828 and we'll get to see more colors in just a moment. Why is it so hard for some women to manage their own financial affairs? How can they conquer their fears? What according to financial educator Ruth Hayden their future well-being depends on the actions they take now? Hello, this is Bob Potter will be talking about women and money on some money this weekend and you're invited to join us song about a Saturday morning and again Sunday afternoon at 5 on Minnesota Public Radio W FM 91.1 in the Twin Cities. Also an invitation to join us over the noon hour today II Arbor. Midday program or going to hear from Jeremy Rifkin one of the nation's leading social critics. He is out with a new book that talks about the genetic Revolution says it holds of course great promise, but also raises some pretty troubling questions and he is calling for the start of a real public debate on just how to deal with the the biotech Revolution that's coming up over the noon hour today Weather Service says for the most part we can look for a partly cloudy Sky across Minnesota this afternoon highs in the 70s, maybe a shower or thunderstorm in the southwest but generally partly cloudy eye in the seventies the Twin City forecast for the afternoon calls for partly cloudy sky with a high 7 me to 75° ask for the weekend while the Weather Service says there's a good chance for rain all across, Minnesota tomorrow. Possible rain at least in northern Minnesota or a good chance for rain all across the state. I'm sorry on Saturday and unfortunately rain on Sunday and Monday to looks like it could be kind of a wet Memorial Day weekend right now in the Twin Cities. We have a partly cloudy skies 68° were talking this hour about the historic boat that will be held tomorrow on an agreement with some say could bring peace finally to Northern Ireland and a joining us here in the studio Macalester College political science Professor Andrew Latham. If you have a question or comment give us a call to 276 Thousand Oaks on the Twin Cities one 800-242-2828 and adjoining is so now by phone probably Minnesota's most famous Irishmen Joe Dowling who is artistic director of the Guthrie Theater and Native of Dublin. Good morning, sir. Appreciate you appreciate you joining us. What do you think is going to happen. Vote tomorrow? August all the experts are expecting it will be approved the agreement view the large majority to have any credibility and that's an issue that concerns a lot of people but it's it's moving more in the direction of the yes vote but they're still a sizeable no minority that could if if the assembly elections happen next month couldn't get sufficient votes to disrupt this whole thing. Well, unfortunately, we lost Joe Dowling there for a moment and hopefully we'll get him back here in just a moment again, if you'd like to join our conversation to 276 thousand or one 800-242-2828 in the Twin City area 1994 ceasefire in Northern Ireland did that essentially stop most of the violence so that the that in a way the service agreement is just a follow-on to that or has there been quite a bit of violence since even the ceasefire. It was announced by the apartment to see so far as the first one in 94 and that was there was little sectarian violence between the communities although certainly within the Nationalist Community some of the Paramount recognize ations were conducting punishment beatings and so on and this place very very poorly amongst the unionists who said that look these people have declared a cease-fire, but but not really that she's far eventually, bro. Ostensibly because of the intransigence of John Major's conservative government in Britain and its inability to come to grips with the peace process and to move it forward and a way that IRA and Sinn Fein had believed the process would move forward fast forward to a few years and we see a second C Spire and put in place which enabled Sinn Fein find me to come to the table and to begin negotiating as a full partner in this process. Once again, though. It's been not entirely it's very difficult to bring along some of the Republican Fringe elements and anytime is a cease-fire. This has been true throughout the 20th century anytime that I erased declared a cease-fire. They're both me factions with your broken off and have continued to struggle and that has been the case here as well. Although the provisional Ira the main body the IRS declared a cease-fire and by all accounts honored it's for the most part there have been a number of breakaway group Springs groups etcetera. Which have not recognize the ceasefire with you are not a different. Seaspar how much are continuing to perpetrate acts of violence which some of which have a political motive and some of which are perhaps more criminal in nature are in your question place. I know the previously the the Catholics of Northern Ireland had a lot more children than the Protestants and it has resulted in like an increasing percentage of Catholics in the population in just wondering if that's still the trend and if that might if that might cause the Protestants to fear that that soon the Catholics could buy this new Arrangement vote to join with the South that is in fact a source of some concern the representation in the Union's community. Of course, it's that Catholics do have more children and a lot sometimes represented in less flattering terms at a certain extent. That's true demographically the union after Nationals Community rather Catholics have tended to have more children. There has been a shift in the relevant relative percentages. It's now 47% Catholic normal Catholic 53% nominal Protestant in the North and the Online is such that sometime around 20 20 20 25. If the current trends continue there will be a slim majority of Catholics in the province. The numbers are changing. However, not so much because of different birth rate. But because in recent years Catholic immigration rates, which of historically been very high in the province and indeed in Ireland overall have began to decline. So we're now in a situation where fewer Catholics are leaving the province at birth rates are still difference and the long-term trends. I said somewhere around 20 20 20 25 suggest that Catholics will be in the majority. This is a source of some concern to those Union has to have the foresight to look that far down the road and May in fact be part of the reason why they're willing to do this deal. Now if they can lock in this constitutional agreement locking their right to be British, even if Northern Ireland up somewhere down the road to become part of the Republic according to this agreement. They still have the right to retain their British identity and to have their tradition respected on an equal level with the IRA. The Gaelic identity so it is a source of some concern but we should be very careful about historically the way in which the union is community has represented Catholics in terms of their very high birth rates that's been at the rogatoria sort of representation. Bob your question place a question concerning the origins of the partition, but I like the answer checked as the rest of the Empire receded the right to me remain British may have been allowed in the Indian subcontinent in Rhodesia and South Africa to Singapore out in tonight at odd nauseam, but they did not retain territorial rights, but with respect to the origins of the partition, correct me if I'm wrong, I believe it's Barbara tuchman's book. I can't remember what I was told that the onset of War 1914 killed home rule. Because the orange members of the British officer Corps essentially mutinied Parnell would have gotten home rule and Ireland would have eventually become free as a single unit the retention of territorial rights in occupied. Ireland is unique in the recession of Empire, perhaps Angola or Mikhail. We have an exception, but I think the camp followers do they retain rights and will the camp followers of the great Russian leader in the Latvia retainer right to vote and perhaps even form a Russian element in Latvia, which becomes part of the Russian Republic. Thank you. Touched on some very very interesting issues and I can't recapitulate the history of partition and the the long and somewhat sordid history of the the northern Irish state but let me address anniversary is what your last set of comments. If we want to move this peace process Ford. I think it's very very important that we recognize the parody of esteem between the two Traditions historically in the northern Irish day. The Catholic Gaelic nationalist tradition has been devalued has not been a lot expression in public space. And in fact that as I said earlier one of my comments earlier, what's that? I think this is part of the root Dynamic of this conflict. The obverse of that. Of course is that in any future Arrangements on the island of Arland there have to be Ironclad guarantees that the unionist people can retain their sense of britishness that they're British Traditions that can be respected and that they can be assured that they will be who they want to be in in the future that may not affect. Directly to political Arrangements, but there has to be some collective a communal rights built into the government structures of any future Northern Ireland or indeed unified island of Ireland that will assure the unionist people that they're not going to be forced to be to have an identity that they don't want and don't feel in their bones. As I said earlier. It's like asking Americans even if there was some monetary compensation to become Mexican or Canadian or German or French, they simply wouldn't feel that way for the most part and so would resist that if we want peace in Northern Ireland. We not only need social and political and economic Justice. We not only need some degree of security human security, which means that people can go about living their lives without fear of harassment or violence. We also need partybus team. We'd both of those Traditions to be expressed in the public space. We need both of those Traditions to be respected and we can't have I think the kind of rhetoric which the values or more. Either of those two Traditions if we're serious about a sustainable peace in Northern Ireland Joe Dowling is back with his John. Sorry about the phone problems. Would you agree with my and relate them that it's it's essential for any kind of long-term solution here that the both the Traditions be be valued and be allowed to the share the public space of ownership of this new process that's know about to undertake assembly and with the north-south bodies, you know, what is a z test elevation of the Catholic Community in Memphis. This is not going on. Do you need this population in the attempt to persuade them to accept this agreement? Give me the something else except also is a change the whole island of Ireland being even though not in the emotionally Eunice if it is such a turns out to be really is the acceptance of British rule in Ireland. They're two sides to this and what I think the Paris team is essential elements of cat was brought together by people who don't even speak to each other. I mean they argued Cindy's meetings without ever speaking directly to each other one whole cup with that. They work together. It's a very very tentative delicas almost I think over the fragile Coalition has been put together and tomorrow is only by really on the very very start of something and it's going to take a very long time to break down the differences between the two Traditions. I asked if I was there earlier, let me ask you to Joanna is a native of Dublin if push came to shove with the Irish Republic actually be interested in taking over Northern Ireland and taking over all the problems that would go with that say we've done the best we can we wash our hands when we walk away and I didn't tease they have I've done in other parts of the world throughout history. There is no possible way that Take on a canonical Eeyore indeed socially can take on Northern Ireland and I think one of the soda prophets of Doom in a send someone indeed a man who's been very instrumental in Irish politics for many many years is Conor Cruise O'Brien who sees this scenario is leading to a civil war if the British decide to withdraw because they washed their hands of a process that seems to be going nowhere by the band The Comfort will will escalate and I think while I'm not by any means supporting our kind of position, I think his argument has a lot of the Irish government needs this this this arrangement in the settlement to work in order the progress can be made of bringing the two parts of the island together in some sort of orderly fashion hundred north south Council which which will have at least some teeth and it won't be a problem with want. United Island sense but it certainly would have some teeth is the first step. But if they if the British would withdraw it would be devastating situation for the South bill that is on the line with a question, New Hampshire have been made about the decommissioning of arms and present struggle talk about it. The little or nothing is said about the weapons in the hands of the illegal Protestant paramilitaries like that. Yeah uvf the uff the red hand Commandos 2 for the most part. I've been fighting for any political gain whatsoever. But I've been just Secretary of murderous. These are very The shankill Butchers who actually had Catholics publicly. In the police force in the other organs of the British rule in Northern Ireland, but nothing about these illegal paramilitaries do many believe house who have been in the past play the British government either openly as in the case of the UVA or secretly is in the recent case of Uzis and Remington's being nicer play to them or British intelligence forces. That's how I'm important points when we talked about the decommissioning of arms, which means getting the gun out of our pockets. It's not just the Republicans the Nationals the Catholics the IRA that have these weapons. Although that has been the focus of attention in recent months. We have to remember that the union is community is in fact armed to the teeth and I'm not just referring to the variety of pernoshal groups that the color just mentioned but your average Farmer for example is armed there are enormous amount of guns, perhaps even driving the number of guns in this country on the street in Northern Ireland are there is an enormous number of of armed police and soldiers than that. Heavily-armed as well. I guess what I'm getting at here is if we really want to take the gun out of Irish politics Norman R politics. It has to be done in a comprehensive and sustainable basis. We have to move away from the kind of policing for example that allows one Community to police another that has to do with movement. And this is I think within the spirit of the agreement a movement towards community-based policing that generates enormous Spirit amongst the Union as to think my God all of a sudden now, we're going to have the IRA in uniform and maybe policing our streets and we certainly don't want that but if peace is to be sustainable if we could get away from this protracted social conflict in Northern Ireland. We need to get the gun at the hands of the paramilitaries and the terrorists and criminals for that matter, but also it out of the hands of the state to transform policing and Law & Order from a situation now where you often have military occupation to one in which a small community based in which the guns are not pointing at at at at the community but policing is done in a more sustainable. I need a style orientation Joe Dowling. How in the world do you break down the demesne levels of distrust among the people? Well, it is a very long process and it starts I believe with education and I think one of the failures of Northern Ireland has been the failure to educate young people of different Traditions together and to make them recognize the other in their Community is not a Monster icon from my grandparents. My grandfather was in Northern Pakistan to my mother and my father's people at the southern Catholics. And so then the notion of people coming together from different Traditions is not unknown Iran heard of it under many many examples of as many opportunities for people to come together the the intractable nature of this time. Do I spend more time together and there is a great deal of of of of trust me. But I think it does have to happen over a long period through education and true. I'm also Assembly and any government that emerges from that assembly and collapsed because the union and population refuse to accept it. I think we have moved on if this can get up and running and we can see the the route starting of cross community policing cross community and government I think over the. Of time with or without the commissioner because I happen to believe the decommissioning is a red herring. I'm out of politics. Because they're never going to admit defeat and laying down your arms means that you've been defeated the IRA to negotiate a table without either side accepting defeat and I think that's a terribly important principle. Once you start demanding that the IRA lay down their guns and they're going to have to admit defeat and I think one of the big issues of the last couple of years is going to try and get off this hook of how do you take commission? It's got to happen over a very long period of time left the guns Ruff rather than trying to put them into the middle of the street to one group of the other can be Triumph list. So forget about the guns and try to focus on what people are doing with the guns has is that there have been safe houses that has been an acceptance among not not a majority by any means but I am on the section of the Northern Ireland national population and acceptance of violence. Reginald maudling a former British Home Secretary of the IRA once you put in place pictures and pleasing is a very very important one of those Patrol. Also I would say is the acceptance of a dimension in Irish culture Dimension within the northern structures in itself can help to reduce the detentions. We are unfortunately just about out of time. But Rick has been waiting patiently here with a with a comment. Go ahead with plays. Yes. What influence from the American money flowing over to Ireland on the support of the IRA? It's actually had on this process. America's rolling in this has been crucial in a number of ways Direction American Community has on-and-off supported either advertently or otherwise support at the IRA with money and what not the American government certainly never supported at the Paramount reason to fax played a crucial role, especially recently in terms of catalyzing. This peace process center. Mitchell's roll indeed President Clinton's role in all this has been absolutely indispensable and crucial. So what's it important to recognize that there? Is this Bedrock of support amongst the Irish American Community for the Republican tradition and indeed for paramilitary violence and there has been money that explode from the United States in North America more broadly into the coffers of the IRA. But the American government is always worth against that and especially in recent times has really played an important role in terms of moving this beef broth in a way that perhaps it otherwise mightn't have pressure. What should we be in your mind? What what what should we be looking for assuming that the that the agreement is approved tomorrow? What's the next big thing where people who are trying to follow the story should focus on what's my expected expected upsurge perhaps in violence on the part of those paramilitary groups that are not moving in lockstep with the peace process be the Republican or a loyalist watch for the marching season in the way in which that says that. Of heightened sectarian tension effects or shapes. The peace process as it involves watch for the legislation a lot of the elements of this agreement have to be enacted into law in both Republic of Ireland and by the Westminster parliament in London that has to be watched and over the medium-to-long-term watch the extent to which these new structures begin to encourage confidence among the two Traditions that they can fat work with each other speak with each other first of all, and then work with each other and watch for the way in which these two Traditions the Gaylord National is Catholic and the Protestant unionists British are afforded some kind of quality of a steam in the public space. I think unless and until that happens. This process will not really take hold Joe darling and 30 seconds. What will you be king on I think and I think the big issue over the next number of the size of the charger tomorrow. I think it's a unionist majority tomorrow. Is not very large, then I would be very concerned that the and legislation for this coming to bring in at the assembly that could easily be ruined. It's a very fragile process. I don't think this a any complacency. It's it's a it's a long way to go. The marching season is just upon us and that's going to be the Tender Box. I think this year. Thank you, sir. Appreciate you joining us later bought of Ireland and related who teaches political science at Macalester College. I'm learning Benson on the next all things considered the Minnesota Orchestra wants to bring in more money to do that. They want to build an Amphitheater that can seat more Summer ticket buyers a new idea by any means because you've seen what's happened around the country, but it is a new idea here because one has not been built here, next to All Things Considered weekdays at 3 on Minnesota Public Radio k n o w FM 91.1 in the Twin Cities. time now for The Writer's Almanac