(00:00:00) Support for this program comes from the NPR news and information fund contributors include the Corporation for Public Broadcasting for historical reporting the Pew Memorial trust RKO General radio and television Broadcasting Company and the communications workers of America representing 650,000 members Nationwide in telecommunications and other fields. This program is a production of national public radio, which is solely responsible for its content. (00:00:46) From National Public Radio in Washington. This is an election 82 Special Report. We sat down and really looked at the amount of time that we try to have influence over the legislative body that was there and we decided it was really wasted effort. And so we just decided that with that it was obvious we had to do something different and that was to change those individuals that were in the legislature that it was the only way we were going to have an impact and as women like Carmen horrible started organizing groups such as her own project 13 in Minnesota were born. I'm Cokie Roberts will explore the impact of women in politics on this election 82 Special Report. Every week when you pick up the paper, you read the gender gaps widening or the gender gap is shrinking not since the credibility gap of the Johnson days. It's such a gulf been so discussed. It's the political writers shorthand for the difference in Attitude between men and women as they look at political parties and candidates in 1980 more women voted for Ronald Reagan than Jimmy Carter, but the percentage of women who voted for. Mr. Reagan was considerably lower than the percentage of men that Trends held up throughout the Reagan presidency women have consistently given the president overall approval ratings lower than men and one recent poll women rated the president's foreign policy 13 points lower than men did and his Economic Policy nine points lower and on the economy men have been steadily moving towards women Republican candidates all over the country are running better with men than they are with women except in a few cases where The candidates are women and among the under 30 population where women voted more than men in 1980 women are democratic by a large. Margin while the young men identify themselves as Republican by a small margin women traditionally separated from Men on What's called the war peace issue questions of the use of force in Korea, then Vietnam or ending the draft but in the last couple of years, it's the economy that's keeping women away from the Republican party. They worry more about unemployment than inflation and they're concerned that federal budget cuts disproportionately affect them one area where men and women seem to agree is on the so called feminist issues the Equal Rights Amendment abortion and equal pay for equal work, but some analysts like Ruth Mandel director of The Institute of Women and politics at Rutgers University believe that the defeat of the Equal Rights Amendment has mobilized women politically NPR's Margo atler filed this report. Board as the 1982 elections approach. There are more women running for political office than ever before that shouldn't be surprising because the number of women in federal and local office has been increasing steadily if slowly over the past eight years from three and a half percent to a little over 12 percent Rosalie whale and executive director of the National Women's education fund says the 1982 elections will continue this trend. I think we are maintaining and in several cases moving a little bit of head. (00:03:58) We have 55 women nominated for congress. That's a few more than 80 and a few more than 78 and more than twice as many as 1970. (00:04:11) We have at least sixteen (00:04:13) hundred and twenty seven women nominated for state legislatures. And that's a 12% increase in nominees over 80 and 15% over 78. (00:04:24) So obviously the momentum is still there in 1982 there. More Women campaign managers. There are a few more women who are high-level political Consultants. Although some will tell you it's still difficult to find men who will hire women as strategists. There are more women with money to fund campaigns. Although the price of a campaign these days is much higher and the women who are running for office are more viable candidates. There are more women these days who run for open seeds who run and races where they have a decent chance of winning who run with significant backing from important sources Ruth Mendel director of the Center for Women and politics at Rutgers University. There's another Factor what political consultant Darryl Glennie calls a quiet Revolution behind the scenes women are moving up in the infrastructure of both parties in many cases. They're doing better in the Republican than in the Democratic party. All these factors have been part of a slow but steady Trend an increase in women's participation in the political process. What is new and different this year is that national and local women's organizations have a lot more political and Financial Clout. It's what a number of observers have called the hidden or invisible victory of the Equal Rights Amendment. For example, the National Organization for Women now doubled its membership since 1982 220,000 in the last six months of the ER a battle. It raised 1.3 million dollars a month and is targeted three million dollars for this election, which is just about the same amount raised by the Democratic National Committee. It's trained thousands of people. It's got the troops. It's got the money and the defeat of era has led to a change in tactics Ruth Mandel says that while it's too early to talk about a post era women strategy what's obvious and Apparent at this moment a couple of months after that final defeat is that the major national feminist organization is saying that it is going to be concentrating its attention and quite a sophisticated way on the electoral system with a set of rewards and punishments financial and otherwise So that is a much more hard-nosed practical political electoral political strategy a broad scale one then a targeted approach to one issue. It's not only now that's changing its strategy and Louis political director of the Democratic National Committee says the ER a defeat taught women a specific lesson that it is not enough just to be the best educated in the best organized lobbyists in the world. There comes a point where if you want to change the policy, you have to change the policy makers many local women's groups, even before the defeat of era became disaffected with lobbying in some cases abandoning the national level for local politics project 13 in Minnesota was created by the members of several pro-choice groups Koren horrible. One of its Founders told me that years of lobbying didn't work. We sat down and really looked at the amount of time that we try to have influence over the legislative body that was there and we decided it was really wasted. Bird and so we just decided that with that it was obvious we had to do something different and that was to change those individuals that were in the legislature that it was. The only way we were going to have an impact project 13 organized potluck suppers around the state during which women listen to a radio program paid for by project 13 in Minnesota the opportunity to significantly change. The climate begins with Precinct caucuses project 13 sent representatives to 1,000 local Precinct meetings women before I have always tried to have access and access is not the same as having real power and real power is when you have organized your own power and you have your own candidates and you move forward with your own agenda, that was very scary to them because we weren't in a we weren't in a compromising or asking her pleading position. We held the votes. It's too early to tell what effect these changes will have it certainly won't see a women's revolution in the 1982 election. It's pretty certain that the process of change will still be slow a few seats here a few seats there. But however slow the pattern is says Ruth Mandel. That's what makes it significant. If it's slow you have at least some sense of confidence that it's it's really hooking itself into the system that that slow change is part of it and that it's going to remain and Rosalie Whalen of the National Women's education fund told me that it's this slow and steady Trend that is almost Unstoppable because the social economic and educational changes affecting women are (00:09:01) fundamental the underlying social Attitude Change Is So enormous that I don't think you can turn that back radically any longer (00:09:12) and these changes are not that affected by a single Administration or a single legislative defeat like era that a feat which ironically may have led to the further expansion of women's political power. I'm Margo Adler. Joining us now are John Sears who served as President Reagan's campaign manager and Robert Squire a political consultant for Democratic candidates Bob you have been quoted as saying that the best advice you could give your candidates this year would be to have a sex-change operation. Did you say that and is it true? (00:09:43) I said it I guess I wish I hadn't said it I think but what I was trying to say with that is that I think we're in the era of the woman candidate and I think that over the next two to four years you're going to see a real outpouring of really first-rate women candidates and they're going to have some advantages that the men that are running against the my really not prepared to do with (00:10:06) what we have 56 women running for the House of Representatives this year and and the most anybody's really expecting us to hold the number that that are currently there are 20 people. John Sears is all this women stuff been blown out of proportion. (00:10:21) Well, I don't think it's been blown out of proportion women is I've observed anyway. Politics have a rather long really history now at this point of having more and more influence on politics. I can remember 20 years ago when and compare the present time to that and find that really this has been something that's been going on even outside. The women's movement in really is is moving ahead even further now. I don't really think myself that the women's movement in and of itself is going to change the character of that participation. I think what's happened is that the fact of the women's movement is going to move ahead the pace of it a little bit. (00:11:00) Is it something for Republicans to worry about? (00:11:03) Well, I don't think the Republicans are particularly worried about it actually the Republican party. If you measured it against the Democratic you would find that it has actually has a history of involving women at a faster pace and in higher occupations in politics that really is better than the Democrats if you go back 20 25 (00:11:24) years bomb. Are one of your candidates in New Jersey is running against one of those Republican women for the Senate. How is that work? (00:11:34) I think that one's a special case in that our opponent. There is a candidate who is very well known in terms of just flat name identification, but whose policies are not very well known and that's a really what the campaign is well down to just a case of basically trying to separate what is a kind of cartoon of you know image from what is is her kind of voting profile (00:11:57) but moving on to one of your other states, Virginia, is that the kind of case where you really working on getting out of women's vote along with the black (00:12:05) moan? Oh, yes. I think Gender Gap is here and that it's something that dispels good news for the Democrats. I think what happened five ten years ago was it you had a situation in which men were the ones that really were came to the voting process and we're interested in it and led women into voting decisions and you could see this in late undecideds and races especially in Southern States now I think almost exactly the opposite is taking place. I think women are getting two more issues and more interesting issues in a wider range of issues early and are basically bringing men to them. I think the story this year is going to be that we've had this gender gap as the race begins to kind of settle down and that with the kind of turnout. I think it's going to come because I think we're gonna have a high turnout election that women are going to basically bring the men with them into this election. And for the kinds of issues they care about in the kind of candidates they care about if I'm right about that. That means we're gonna have a big Democratic Year (00:12:55) John Sears. Do you see that (00:12:56) kind of turnout? Well, I think the most interesting thing relative to women is just what Bob's been discussing here. It is whether afterwards and looking at the results we can make the assessment that women in this election moved men to their side of the issues. If that is true that will indicate quite a significant change in the way. The pollsters have looked at these things. I'm prepared to rename our party the national women's party if that takes place, but you'll do anything but four votes to (00:13:23) NPR's Linda wertheimer. On our way back to Washington from South Dakota. But before she left she did some reporting on what the two political parties have been doing about This Woman's vote. What what to woo, the women Linda. What did you find? Well, I found a Republican National committee's effort largely defensive the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee all agree that if there is a big women's vote. It will probably move toward the Democratic party. So the Republican party's approaches defensive. It's a kind of damage control approach for example on war peace issues. The president has had considerable success in defeat in defusing. They problems that women have with him by talking about disarmament. He says he opposes a nuclear freeze, but what he wants to do is to talk to the Soviet Union about reducing arms and then freezing and that's an approach which you know, which has which has tended to improve the Standing with women on those War peace issues and the Republican committee is advising candidates to talk about that kind of thing to emphasize the positive aspects that for the long-term economic health stay the course and so on using essentially the same kinds of approaches that the president who is after all the kind of candidate who has trouble with women has used the Republic of the the Democrats you would think would be making an aggressive jump for the women's vote and to some extent they are but the Democratic party is just simply does not have the funds to be very aggressive about anything they but they maintain that their issues already separate men from women to some extent they will be pounding away on the economy on job security on unemployment. And these are issues that women care very much about and they will be talking a lot about the war peace issues and they question of the enormous amounts of money which President Reagan proposes to spend for military purposes all issues, which And all ready to appeal to the women's vote. So they say that they really don't need to do anything beyond what they what they would do. Anyway, it is true that both parties use women to reach out to women. The Republican party is John pointed out has a lot of work horses within the party on tremendous number of office holders and heads of Divisions in the Republican Party are women, but they still do tend to have a lot of show horses to her men around the place as well. And the fact that the Republican party has backtracked on some women's issues particularly era and the fact that the leader of the Republican Party the president feels as he does on a lot of women's issues has tended to negate that approach the DNC says that they have steadily moved toward women brought women into the party given women power and they have never moved backwards on that. So they maintain that they're in a better position. Although I agree with John that there are an awful lot of powerful women in the Republican Party an impressive number in fact Linda you are now in Chicago. I know but you've been in South Dakota the last few days and you've been talking about this question of the the overriding influence of the economy as the issue in this race. What are you seeing there in South Dakota? How's it working there? Well, South Dakota, as you know, Cokie is one of those plain states that just stretches out from Horizon to Horizon. Neatly divided into sections divided into quarters with Family Farms on each one. It's the most organized looking States you've ever seen from the air and it's incredible to look down on all those people sort of evenly sprinkled from border to border the the farmers who make up everything that is South Dakota are very depressed. And I think very despairing about the economy. They feel that there is nothing that can help them. They don't see any programs. They don't see any any Heroes. They don't see anybody out there who who is going to rescue? Them from the from the problem they have which is bumper crops and terribly low prices. They see the president's actions to to release more grain to the Soviet Union as a straight political move. They don't even think it will do them any good because they don't anticipate that the Soviet Union will buy all of it, but they don't translate that at this point in South Dakota, which of course is a very conservative and Republican place that is not translating into any kind of rebellion against Republicans and I was I must say I was amazed to see that number of people after just giving me chapter and verse about what was bad about their situation and what their problems were and what the and how the farm program is failing them and how the loans are failing them and how the banks are failing them in the interest rates are failing them. I said, how do you feel about the what this Administration is doing and they said well, it's painful but we feel that the president is on the right track. Has there been some strategy? You can look at that you can say now this is what the Republicans did to keep these people behind them. I think the basic stay the course ring the inflation out of the economy is something that the farmers seem to appreciate intellectually as something that might work the people that I talk to don't find it's working in their lives, but they don't they don't yet seem to be to be thinking that they should make take any political action on the basis of that. So I think the strategy the just this the president's strategy of saying I am your president I'm trying to do a difficult thing stay with me is working in South Dakota. These are people after all who are farming and what and in a harsh climate who are accustomed to risk and taking Gamble's and losing from time to time and I think I think that for somebody to put considerable Misfortune on their plate is something that in some ways they feel as About par for the course Linda stay with us. We have Ted Clark our White House correspondent joining us here to talk to us about that that Republican strategy, especially the president's own strategy tend to Linda mentioned the question of the grain deal with the Soviet Union. Are there other things that the White House or the president has been doing to make things better for Republican candidates. (00:19:48) Well, I yes there are the stay the course theme of course is a probably the most important one as far as I can see the economy being the number one issue and I might just say one thing about that that when inevitable bad economic news comes along as it did when the unemployment figures came out about 10 days ago and unemployment rate went up to 10.1% the White House spent so much time anticipating that news and interpreting it their way so that when the figures finally came out it almost seemed like old news and people were perhaps less critical than they might otherwise have been but there is a obviously a policy Of giving people other things to think about besides the economy Linda mentioned the grain agreement with the Soviet Union, but if you think back over the last couple of weeks last three or four weeks, the Litany of other issues that have come out of the White House is quite striking. We've seen them come out for school prayer for tuition tax credits. They've come out on the abortion issue again, the balanced budget amendment minority business plan has been they talked about proposing one of those in the last few days alone. We had a major initiative to court to combat organized crime with 12 Regional task forces. We've we've been told about new action to be taken in the Poland situation. And just today we had a report on the military Manpower situation, which concluded that the all volunteer army is working well and we won't need a draft. So all of these are issues which are of interest to other people perhaps not (00:21:16) with women to going back to that earlier subject. What about the the kinds of things that a White House can do aside from the issues themselves? Do to really help people out. I hear that was some money that went into California some Dairy subsidies that are about to be removed but won't be removed until after the election some EPA regulations that will not be loosened until after the elections. Is that kind of thing going (00:21:40) on? Well, I think you have to say that the the organized crime task force is are the kind of thing that only a president can pull together at the last moment. One thing which does not seem to be happening which might in other situations have happened is no foreign crises are emerging at the last moment to make the president look presidential and that frequently happens, but this president has so far stayed away from that if two more weeks, you know, (00:22:07) John Sears, is it common for a president to do this in the weeks before an election to start using the presidency and and ways to help his (00:22:15) friends. Oh, of course, it's very common. I think the Striking thing to me about this particular year. Is that really in comparison to other elections that I've seen? I don't think either Side is doing as much as I would have expected some of the things the Ted mentioned are normal fare for the White House to be doing at this time. And while they really are trying to get interest over to other issues. You don't see the reiteration of all these new programs and new ideas that usually accompany presidential action during the last few weeks of an election to drive home to the people that he's really working the other side. I don't think the Democrats have done really anything much at all to press what's on the table for them. Certainly. There's been some mention of the unemployment problem. But again, you don't see in the papers and on the news forecast this regular beating in of the bad economic news that you would expect Democrats to be doing these days really at this point two weeks before the election. I think that much of how the voters are going to decide their minds is really on the table and really during the remaining time. It will be a matter of who does a better job of just driving. (00:23:25) Home Ted Clark. The President also has some trips planned to drive it home in some places more than another places why why are certain areas picked for him to visit? (00:23:36) The White House says that they will go to those areas where the president's appearance can make a significant difference to the candidate to the Republican candidate and last week. The White House officials were saying that the in smaller in states with smaller populations of visit by the president can mean as much as five to ten percent Improvement in the polls for the Republican candidate that they say that was the case in Nevada when the president went out there. There are there are trips planned this week. He's going to Peoria, Illinois and he'll be campaigning for Bob Michael who's been a very good soldier for the White House the House minority leader and then on to Omaha, Nebraska, I think these this being Farm country helps to explain perhaps the timing of the grain announcement last week. The fact that the president is going there today in the future. They aren't the White House has not committed themselves to anything but strong possibilities are a presidential trip to North Carolina possibly. Virginia possibly another swing through the West to Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, California. This point seems less and less likely (00:24:43) pop Squire you have a candidate in Virginia. Will it help him or hurt him to have Ronald Reagan come for his (00:24:48) opponent based on his trip last time for Coleman. I think we might go halfsies on the cost of the (00:24:52) trip. This is the gubernatorial candidate. (00:24:55) I think that what's happening this year? It's kind of interesting because I think that you've got the sudden grain deal. We're going to have social security solvent, but not until after the election we have this instant jobs bill which the president sort of poured water on and so on. I think the one thing that's come out of this election is that we've we found a real solution to the problem of high interest rates, I think all we have to do is hold an election every six months in this country and will keep High interest rates down forever. I think the American people are not as naive as some politicians on both sides of the aisle believe them to be and I think that these kinds of actions will have only very limited effect upon this election. I think the cast and this election is now set. I think the issue is jobs economy. Employment. I think that's that's the way the selection is going to (00:25:39) turn Linda wertheimer. We are now two weeks and one day away from this election and we are now going to get into the very Risky Business and making some predictions. What do you see now that you've made this swing through the middle west the Midwest Battleground. They are in Chicago. Are you seeing are you seeing a democratic Landslide or little change? Well, I think it depends upon I think the industrial States will rise up for the Democrats in in considerable numbers. I think that there are there are just too many people who are out of work and too many people who are afraid of being out of work immediately not to do that. As I said the farmers this we're having a late a late harvest in this part of the country because it's so wet and when farmers are harvesting and they're bringing in a good crop even though it may mean low prices. There's still this little flutter of optimism for them. So Linda we have very little time you have any numbers any guesses on how seat numbers any real sense? To the landslide in it. I say that the Democrats hold their own in the Senate pick up 20 or so in the house and that they really make big gains in the middle west especially for Governors. All right, Bob Squire, very (00:26:47) fast big gains for Governors 36 seats in the House of Representatives. And I believe that when this election is over the Democrats will control the Senate of the United (00:26:55) States you do. Yes by how many seats won one seat extra and John Sears with going with that. What are you have to (00:27:04) say? Well, I think about three weeks ago. I said that the Democrats should win about 30 seats in the house. I think it should be in that range not agree with Bob. It'll be in the range of 30 to 35. I think they may lose a cedar so in the Senate and they'll lose about four or five governors. (00:27:20) Thanks very much. John Sears who served as President Reagan's campaign manager and Robert Squire a political consultant for Democratic candidates are program was produced by Frank fitzmorris and edited by Mark Rosenbaum. Richard. Firestone is the director. He had help from Sam Mackey. Beat him next week. The money factor Republicans are greatly outspending Democrats this year and we'll examine how important that's likely to be on November 2nd. We'll look at where the money's coming from and how it's being spent please join us for the next election 82 Special Report with Linda wertheimer in Chicago Ted Clark and Margo atler. I'm Cokie Roberts. (00:28:12) Financial support for this program is provided by the national public radio news and information fund contributors to this fund include the Corporation for Public Broadcasting for historical reporting the Pew Memorial trust RKO General a radio and television Broadcasting Company and for Midwestern coverage the Joyce Foundation. This program is a production of national public radio, which is solely responsible for its content. This is NPR National Public Radio.