Transcripts

SPEAKER: Now back to StormReady, a report on tornado preparedness in the Twin Cities. Our project was reported in collaboration with KARE 11 News. If you're just joining us, we asked our chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner, to design a simulated tornado that follows the most likely path for a twister in the Twin Cities.

Now, we use the simulation to check in with a variety of businesses and institutions along its path to gauge their storm readiness. All had plans in place, but in spite of that, our reporting revealed that people will likely be hurt or killed when a powerful EF4 tornado hits the metro. And that's something experts say is inevitable. Curtis Gilbert picks up the story.

CURTIS GILBERT: At 7 o'clock on a weeknight, our simulated storm is bearing down on Target Field, an open-air ballpark with nearly 40,000 seats. The hypothetical tornado started in Shakopee. It ripped through Eden Prairie and Edina, and it was gaining strength as it moved toward Minneapolis.

That northeast track is typical of severe weather in this area. In fact, just over a year ago, the National Weather Service was watching a powerful thunderstorm traveling almost exactly the same course. It was May 10, 2011, and the Twins were playing a home game against the Detroit Tigers.

COMMENTATOR: And Kubel bounces one off the tip of Cabrera's glove.

CURTIS GILBERT: By the fourth inning, heavy rain was drenching the field and lightning flashed in the sky.

COMMENTATOR: We've got a lot of electricity in the air.

CURTIS GILBERT: And the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for southeast Hennepin County. It was 10 minutes after 8 o'clock, and radar indicated the storm could produce a tornado in Minneapolis. About seven minutes later, umpires called a rain delay. Golf-ball-sized hail fell on the field, and the Twins say they instructed fans to move to covered areas of the stadium.

Most people followed directions, but a few stayed outside and were captured on YouTube videos.

MAN: These guys are trying to catch the hail balls.

BOY: [INAUDIBLE] with their gloves.

CURTIS GILBERT: The Twins decided not to tell people about the tornado warning. Kevin Smith is Executive Director of Public Affairs for the team.

KEVIN SMITH: The sirens were going off, but our information was from our meteorologists, from DTN, from the Weather Service, that, actually, the tornadic activity or possibility was actually decreasing.

CURTIS GILBERT: Based on that analysis, the Twins determined it wasn't necessary to activate the tornado plan. Smith says the team worried announcing the warning would just cause confusion.

KEVIN SMITH: And this is a situation that I think we're still working through, quite frankly, is, how much information do you want to put out there that might cause people to panic?

CURTIS GILBERT: The Minnesota Twins are one of only three private businesses in Minnesota that have received the StormReady seal of approval from the National Weather Service. They also have an onsite meteorologist advising them during every home game. If the Twins determine a tornado is likely to hit Target Field, the team's plan is to move fans into the concourses, down ramps, and into the bowels of the ballpark.

An automatic door rolls up and reveals an 18-foot-wide service tunnel that runs beneath much of the stadium at field level. Smith says it's a good place to weather a storm.

KEVIN SMITH: Cinderblock walls, cement floors, concrete ceilings.

CURTIS GILBERT: He estimates thousands of people could fit down here, but probably not a 40,000-person capacity crowd.

KEVIN SMITH: Does the IDS tower have enough space to put all the tenants in a safe spot if there's a tornado that goes through downtown Minneapolis? Does Valleyfair? Does any golf course in the United States have enough places to put people in safe places? Absolutely not.

But what you do is you use the space that you have, wisely, to get the most people out of harm's way as you can.

CURTIS GILBERT: This is the third reason some people might be injured or killed under our hypothetical tornado scenario. Most buildings aren't designed to be tornado shelters. There are spaces in them that offer protection. But as with Valleyfair, some people at Target Field might find themselves hunkered down in less secure places than others.

Of course, under our scenario, the simulated tornado doesn't hit Target Field in the middle of a game. It comes at 7:00 PM, just before the scheduled first pitch. And that means a lot of fans could be driving to the ballpark. It turns out drivers and passengers and cars are among the most vulnerable people in our scenario.

Todd Krause is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. He says people stuck in their cars have few good options.

TODD KRAUSE: Well, I don't know that there's really a safe way to be out there on the highway.

CURTIS GILBERT: Krause says if you're in your car during a tornado warning, you should get into a building if you can. Barring that, if you can figure out a way to drive away from the tornado, some experts say you should try that. Up until three years ago, federal agencies recommended getting out of your car and into a ditch.

But the latest research shows you stand a better chance if you stay in your car. Disaster researcher Richard Bissell helped change the National Weather Service's official advice on the matter. He says if a tornado is bearing down on you, you should leave the engine running, keep your seat belt on, and duck your head below the windows.

RICHARD BISSELL: It's not perfect, but it's better than being out in your sneakers and blue jeans.

CURTIS GILBERT: Every year, tornadoes kill people in their cars, and that's the fourth reason there would likely be casualties as the result of our hypothetical storm. Tornado researcher Kenneth Blumenfeld says it's not reasonable to expect everybody will survive.

KENNETH BLUMENFELD: So a plausible best-case scenario would be, people are really amazed at how well everything worked. You want to come out of it going, wow, that was tough. But everything was working.

CURTIS GILBERT: Blumenfeld says it's important for the Twin Cities to prepare for a major tornado, because sooner or later, another one will hit, just like it did in 1965. And being prepared will be the difference between that best-case scenario and something much worse. Curtis Gilbert, Minnesota Public Radio News.