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SPEAKER: Meteorologists say it's not a question of if, but of when. Odds are a powerful tornado, much stronger than the storm that hit North Minneapolis last year, will rip through the Twin Cities sometime in the future. But with nursing homes, shopping malls, schools, and stadiums, be prepared. With severe weather season upon us, Minnesota Public Radio news and KARE 11 news teamed up to answer that question. We found plenty of preparation, but experts say even with planning, it's impossible to protect everyone.

Curtis Gilbert has the first part of our special report, Storm Ready.

RADIO ANNOUNCER: We interrupt this program with a weather advisory.

CURTIS GILBERT: This 1965 radio broadcast is part of a Minnesota History Center exhibit about the worst tornado outbreak in state history.

RADIO ANNOUNCER: This is a dangerous storm with large hail. Stay in.

CURTIS GILBERT: The warnings were justified. 47 years ago, on May 6, five tornadoes touched down across the Northwest metro. Several were rated F4 with top wind speeds of more than 200 miles per hour. They leveled buildings and tossed cars in the air. 13 people were killed, hundreds injured. Since then, the metro area has grown by more than a million people. University of Minnesota tornado researcher Kenneth Blumenfeld says if those storms struck today, the damage would be much worse.

KENNETH BLUMENFELD: You would have dozens of strip malls affected, probably at least one major regional shopping mall. The 394, 494, 694 corridor would have been crossed multiple times, plus Highway 94 plus 169, plus Highway 100. I mean, there was just a tremendous amount of tornado activity and the kinds of things that get affected by that are almost too numerous to name.

CURTIS GILBERT: Blumenfeld says historically, storms of that magnitude hit this part of Minnesota once every 40 to 50 years. Sooner or later, he says, they will strike again.

KENNETH BLUMENFELD: It's inevitable.

CURTIS GILBERT: In collaboration with KARE 11 news, Minnesota Public Radio news created a simulated storm to test the preparedness of the Twin Cities in 2012. Our chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner, designed a scenario in which a tornado touches down in Shakopee at a relatively weak EF1, but as it moves Northeast, it gains strength. It strikes Eden Prairie in Edina. By the time it reaches Minneapolis, it briefly becomes an EF4, with wind speeds approaching 200 miles per hour before it lifts over the city of St. Anthony.

Huttner says, while the storm's path is only a simulation, its strength, scope, and trajectory are based on science.

PAUL HUTTNER: It fits with the climatology of tornadoes in Minnesota. It's the most likely scenario for a tornado touchdown in the Twin Cities, moving from Southwest to the Northeast.

CURTIS GILBERT: Along the path of our hypothetical storm, we asked businesses and institutions of varying sizes and circumstances to discuss their tornado preparedness. Most agreed to interviews, and some even shared their written policies. All, but the small retail stores, had weather radios on site. But in spite of all the preparations, our research shows people will likely be hurt or even killed the next time a major tornado hits the metro.

To explain why, we'll take you to three locations. Not because the plans there are lacking, but because even the best plans can't necessarily protect everyone.

ANNOUNCER: Oncoming riders, welcome to Renegade. When the gates open.

CURTIS GILBERT: 6:30 on a weeknight in May, our simulated tornado makes its first touchdown at Valleyfair in Shakopee. About 5,000 people would be riding the roller coasters, playing games on the midway--

WOMAN: Ready, set, go.

CURTIS GILBERT: --and listening to the Glee-inspired sounds of the band Shout.

[MAROON 5, "MOVES LIKE JAGGER"] For the stars if it feels right.

Harold Armstrong is in charge of security for this 90 acre amusement park, and he says his staff constantly monitors the weather.

HAROLD ARMSTRONG: Well, it's the responsible thing to do. Not only do we want to provide an attractive entertainment area for people to come to, but we also want a safe area, and that's one of the safety things that we need to do.

CURTIS GILBERT: Valleyfair's customers are more spread out and more exposed to the elements than people at any other site along our hypothetical storm track. The park is also the most proactive when it comes to informing visitors about weather conditions. From the moment it's determined severe weather is possible, Valleyfair broadcasts a recorded announcement over the park PA system.

ANNOUNCER: Attention, ladies and gentlemen, this is a Valleyfair weather update. The National Weather Service has just issued a severe weather watch.

CURTIS GILBERT: Once the watch becomes a warning, parts of the park will shut down. Armstrong says that concentrates patrons into a smaller area and frees up staff in case severe storms look like they'll hit the park directly. At that point, security instructs staff and patrons to seek shelter immediately. Staff are trained to put as many guests as possible into what Armstrong calls level one buildings.

HAROLD ARMSTRONG: Level one building would be maybe a larger building with concrete walls, that type of thing.

CURTIS GILBERT: Armstrong says there aren't enough level one buildings to accommodate 5,000 visitors, but using other less wind-resistant buildings, he says, Valleyfair can provide everyone with some type of shelter. Luckily, our hypothetical tornado would be pretty weak. Let's call it an EF1 when it first touches down at Valleyfair. So just getting indoors would probably suffice. But history shows us not everyone would necessarily stay inside.

The last time the warning sirens went off in Shakopee when Valleyfair was open was July 10, 2008. Brittney Gabrielson was working there at the time. She says it took only 10 minutes to round up the guests in her area and herd them into a nearby bathroom. That's fast enough to escape most dangerous storms. But Gabrielson recalls keeping the visitors there, especially the school kids visiting the park that day, was another matter.

BRITTNEY GABRIELSON: There were some that had a bus to catch because it was a field trip day, and they asked, is it OK if we leave? We need to get back to our bus. And there were other guests that were separated from their group. Their group was in another seek shelter area. They found that through calling them on their cell phones. So they had to venture out into the storm.

CURTIS GILBERT: Gabrielson advised the students to stay with her, but she had no authority to detain them against their will. Luckily, no tornado hit Valleyfair that day. This is the first reason some people could be hurt or even killed by our simulated storm. Even when the plans are executed perfectly, the public isn't required to comply with them.

KENNETH MOPAR: The second floor TCU.

CURTIS GILBERT: After Shakopee, our hypothetical tornado passes near Edina Care and Rehabilitation Center. It's a nursing home located just off Highway 62. Kenneth Mopar is Director of Environmental Services here.

KENNETH MOPAR: We've got long-term care. We've got memory care, short-term.

CURTIS GILBERT: The 130 beds in this facility are spread out over three floors. There's also a basement, but Mopar says there's no way to get all the residents down there fast enough to protect them from a tornado.

KENNETH MOPAR: You've got residents in wheelchairs, in beds, and it wouldn't be possible at all. You want to move as quick as possible, and you would be looking at quite a bit of time.

CURTIS GILBERT: This is the second reason some people could be injured or killed under our hypothetical tornado scenario. It's much harder to protect people who are elderly and unable to get themselves to shelter. When a tornado warning comes over the weather radio, staff at Edina Care and Rehabilitation Center are instructed to move residents to the Northeast hallway of each floor. That keeps them away from windows with as many walls as possible between the people and the storm. But that's not always enough to protect you from a powerful tornado.

16 people died at a nursing home in Joplin, Missouri, last year when an extremely powerful EF5 tornado reduced it to rubble. Just like the plan at Edina Care and Rehabilitation Center, the Joplin nursing home's procedures called for sheltering residents in a hallway. A report from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services released last month found deficiencies in emergency preparedness at many nursing homes around the country. The report recommended more stringent requirements. Volunteers of America, the nonprofit that owns Edina Care and Rehabilitation Center, says it will use the report to refine and expand its emergency planning.

SPEAKER: Well, that's Curtis Gilbert. He'll be back in just a moment with more from our special collaboration with KARE 11 News, Storm Ready. Specifically, we're going to find out how the Minnesota Twins plan to protect fans from a tornado.