(00:00:00) With news from Minnesota Public Radio. I'm Greta Cunningham. Minnesota seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for March climb to its highest level in eight years the rate inched up one-tenth of a percent from February 24.3% But Jay Musa of the Department of trade and economic security says despite Rising unemployment. Minnesota's economy is recovering still. He says the unemployment rate climbed higher in part because of mass layoffs at companies like Fingerhut and (00:00:25) Potlatch the economic recovery already underway hasn't filtered down to the job market yet. And you know, we expect unemployment rate to continue to rise slowly over the next several months. This is It's usually Improvement in the job market lags during an economic (00:00:46) recovery Moses has non-farm employment dropped by nearly 2,000 jobs last month, but the number of manufacturing and trade related positions increased Minnesota lawmakers are working on ending the state's budget impasse Senate Republicans have offered their own. And the clothes the nearly four hundred and forty million dollar budget shortfall yesterday the plan would shift about 312 million dollars in state payments to school districts and 37 million dollars in Social Service block grants from one fiscal year to the next it would also use 100 million dollars from the state's tobacco endowment House Republicans and Senate Democrats. So far haven't been able to negotiate a budget solution the forecast for Minnesota has a wind advisory for Central and Southern Minnesota. It will be windy and warm in the South today scattered showers and thunderstorms in the west and North sometime this afternoon some of those storms may be severe high temperatures today ranging from 65 in the north to new are 88 in the South right now in Duluth. It's partly cloudy and 46 Ely reports Fair skies and 72 and in the Twin Cities overcast Skies with a temperature of 72. That's a news update. I'm Greta Cunningham programming on Minnesota Public Radio is supported by eagle lab dedicated to improving cleaning and sanitation standards for leading Hospitality Healthcare and food processing customers worldwide. I'd on the web at Ecolab.com. It's six minutes now past 11. And good morning. Welcome to midday and Minnesota Public Radio. I'm Gary eichten glad you could join us Minnesota could get its first dose of severe weather later today. As you heard on the news. There is a possibility that severe thunderstorms or tornadoes could develop later today severe weather should it develop would not be all that unusual for this time of the year. April is traditionally one of the more tornado-prone months of the year in Minnesota. Well given the possibility of severe weather today and the fact that this week is officially dead been designated as tornado and severe weather awareness week. We thought we would brush up on our tornado facts and figures today to get whether get ready for the weather. Should it develop joining us by phone. Today is Craig Edwards who is meteorologist in charge of the Twin Cities Office of the National Weather Service, Mark, Seeley is also with us University Minnesota climatologist meteorologist. Of course, you hear Mark each week on our Morning Edition program. And as always we invite you to join our conversation if you I have a question about severe weather in Minnesota. Give us a call here. Our Twin City area number is 6512276 thousand 6512276 thousand if you're calling from outside, the Twin Cities, you can reach us toll-free and that number is 1-800-321-8633 or 1-800 to for to to 828 Craig Mark. Thanks for joining us this morning (00:03:33) preciate it morning (00:03:35) Craig. Let me start with you. If you would please what are the odds that will actually get some severe weather today (00:03:42) somewhere in our region. We're still taking a look at the weather data coming in. As a matter of fact, we're going to launch another weather balloon at noon today to check the vertical profile the atmosphere right now. It looks like the strongest wind shear that could support tornado activity would be to the northwest of the Twin Cities up in Northwestern Minnesota with more like straight line winds barreling through Central, Minnesota. Time toward dark. So so we'll get this balloon launch today and know and we'll see what the vertical profile is and we'll have a better idea that but I would say before noon time today with the computer models coming in. We're going to have a better idea but very seldom does the severe storm Center Prediction Center put areas in a high-risk unless they're rather confident that something's going to be firing up across the area during during the period (00:04:31) you have any idea should severe weather develop what it likely be in the form of a severe thunderstorm or a tornado or both or (00:04:40) well the wind profile we get back from the balloon today. Will this afternoon will tell us a little bit more about that but we're thinking along with the Storm Prediction Center is that the there's not enough rotation Aloft to fire up tornadoes over Central Minnesota would be more like a straight line winds now straight line winds could produce winds that are tornado strength of a hundred miles an hour. So, I don't want to Lo people to think well if we didn't have a I was not going to be that bad but we get a hundred miles an hour straight line winds occurring after dark that you know, that'd be pretty dangerous. So I think regardless of whether it's a tornado or straight line winds, I think people need to be in touch today and what we're trying to do is communicate information so that people aren't caught off guard as many times as you mentioned it is today and it's been on the news reports is that they're still going to be people that are are out of the loop and say I didn't know it was going to be this bad tonight this came up and it was you're going to hear the word surprise and I don't want people to be surprised when the storms come rolling in at 40 miles an hour. (00:05:42) Now you folks will be issuing. I suppose your usual watches and if necessary warnings, could you remind us again what the difference (00:05:50) is? Well, what we try to do is is people start their day. We try to give some information to them so they could plan their course of activities. So they're not rushing around doing things at the last minute. So the forecast this morning is already alerted people to the potential of severe weather if you will that's almost the same. Is issuing a severe thunderstorm watch ER some sort of severe weather watch the Storm Prediction Center. Then we'll refine the information later today is a see the parameter setting up and things starting to align themselves were precisely the area is going to be developing. And so what we'll probably see is the severe weather watch issued some time three o'clock or so covering Western Minnesota then extending East into Central Minnesota and into Wisconsin, that'll that'll set the stage for narrowing down to timeline. So I think if we get people through the afternoon hours and get all the activities done right after work and after school, we can hold the severe weather off till that time. We'll have people may be safely at home or the residents. So there won't be much good as as much a concern is there what is that? We had people in the transition area around the dinner (00:06:57) hour now Mark as I understand it there been no tornadoes in Minnesota yet. And as a matter of fact as you look across the country there have been very few tornadoes. No, so far this year compared to what we would normally have any explanation for that (00:07:13) - good question. I know it says substantially less than what the historical averages would suggest for mid-april and there hasn't been a lot of activity probably because of the nature of the weather disturbances. We've had the contrast in air masses has not been particularly significant, especially the way we had widespread colder than normal conditions in the month of March not just in Minnesota's case, but all over the place and so we didn't have the convective potential because as we all know we need High dew points and we need some kind of convective potential to get severe thunderstorms in the first place. And then of course from those parent clouds we can get tornadoes so but I don't know if that's a sufficient next month explanation or not Gary. There might be a lot of other reasons certainly Behind it as well, but it is very unusual to be this deep end of the month of April and have so few (00:08:13) reported. Have you folks settled on an explanation as to why last year we had a record number of tornadoes in Minnesota. (00:08:22) Well Craig might speak better to this but I noticed and I think all of us here at the University notice that the numbers Nationwide were not all that extraordinary last year, but then here we are in Minnesota with what was it Craig 74 last year seventy four tornadoes the thing about it Mark you say? Okay, what were they doing different in Minnesota? What was going on with that? We looked at the Iowa statistics and they almost parallel to what we had in Minnesota. So it was like this Corridor and the Upper Midwest had the had the market on tornadoes last year, you know something we don't like to be proud of but it was the fact that nature so the 74 tornadoes in Minnesota and the high number of tornadoes in Iowa were pretty much the highlight. This is a severe weather events Across the Nation last year (00:09:11) and that's just luck of the draw best. You can tell (00:09:13) well, what do you think Mark? Well, I think it brings up an underlying point that maybe the public doesn't consider and I don't I don't bring it up necessarily to alarm people but I think it's a point worth pondering that is a lot of people are tending to think that are incidents of severe weather is getting more frequent in this country. And that's a that's a point of dispute but I think unequivocally since the modernization of the Weather Service in the nineteen nineties. Our detection is so much better that there really isn't a severe weather episode that slips shall we say by us? I think literally we probably detect all severe weather in the u.s. Now and we can quantify it much better than we ever have in history. So the fact that are counting statistics with respect to hail or severe storms. Blind wins or tornadoes or a variety of Mother Nature's devastating weather seems perceptibly to be increasing has to be taken shall we say or tempered by the notion that our detection Technologies improved so much that we really don't miss anything anymore (00:10:28) make sense to you (00:10:29) Craig. I think that that's true. That's right onto the capabilities. We have a Doppler radar to identify more specifically the areas of concern where we can contact our spotters and say if somebody can give us a report from there we can have a ground truth or what the radar is showing so we have a better tool to identify the trouble spots and also clue people in ahead of time so that they can be looking for these things instead of saying gee what was that that just went by so what we're doing is we're training people the spotters are invaluable to what the warning system is all about. So, I think we're doing a better job of identifying the problem areas the rule the rule nice of Minnesota. The tornados may be in the 50s and 60s were slipping by areas where there just wasn't anybody there to report it. We just didn't have the staff to go out there to investigate if there was a tornado in a field. It just didn't report get reported to us. And also the I think in the urban areas we've had this expansion of the suburbs that where you had a farm area you now have subdivisions. So I think in the urbanization of the Twin Cities and West Central, Wisconsin, you've had a better chance of people seeing something and reporting something (00:11:38) we're talking this our about severe weather. It's possible that we could get some severe weather today, which would be the first of the year for the state of Minnesota. Craig Edwards has joined us meteorologist in charge of the Twin Cities Office of the National Weather Service Mark Sealy, dr. Weather is joined us University of Minnesota climatologist meteorologist and regular here on Minnesota Public Radio again, we invite you to join our conversation this being a tornado and severe weather, Awareness Week. That would be a good time, especially with the forecast for today good time to Bone up on our weather information. And if you would like to join our conversation, if you've got a question about severe thunderstorms tornadoes and the rest give us a call six five one two, two seven six thousand. That's our Twin City area number six five. One two, two seven six thousand outside the Twin Cities one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight. I'm interested gentlemen a severe thunderstorm now Craig you were noting that in many cases can be just as damaging or virtually as damaging as a tornado is a severe thunderstorm or I'm sorry is a tornado just as severe thunderstorm gone bad, or are they qualitatively (00:12:52) different? Well, what we have in Minnesota is we have a variety of each variety of you opportunities for tornadoes storms in the southern states, you typically get what they call these super cells that are more isolated covering a wide area of the Plains and forecasters and get a real good looking at that's why you have very good video shot from these storms because you've got a great look at a single cell thunderstorm in Minnesota. We have we can have that type of storm as well as a line of thunderstorms that can produce a rotation it can set up a small tornado. So we have a variety of options when it comes to tornado producing thunderstorms and that includes thunderstorms that are moving from Northwest to Southeast when we get to the the early portions of summertime like in June we can get these Northwest flow thunderstorms that could produce Those as well, so we have a number of options and that's unfortunate when we come to tornado statistics and maybe that's one of the reasons why we saw High number last year. (00:14:02) Mmm mark have we had historically many incidents of severe thunderstorms not tornadoes now, but severe thunderstorms doing massive damage in Minnesota (00:14:15) indeed. We have I mean certainly for most minnesotans they'll recall the one that struck The Boundary Waters canoe area just a couple of summers ago on the July 4th time period and devastated such a wide area of both old and new growth trees. In fact, you know, there's still quite a fire danger in The Boundary Waters canoe area as a result of that because of all the downed Timber that was a derecho that's a term that snot kicked around too often D. ER e CH. Oh, it's a Spanish term of means Straight Ahead Straight Ahead wins. And there was excuse me a similar one Gary that went across central Minnesota and I forgot exactly what year it was in the teens 1915 or 14 or something like that that devastated a bunch of Timber and Central Minnesota. And there was a course one not too many years ago that devastated Itasca State Park. In fact even close the state park for a period of time because they had so many down trees. So these are not anywhere near as frequent as many of the other severe storms, but these did Rachel or straight line wind storms can be very very devastating indeed with winds just as as Craig to describe strong enough wins to harm trees buildings Bridges other structures. (00:15:41) So just because we have a severe thunderstorm doesn't mean we can relax and say well no tornado. Everything will be fine. (00:15:47) No, in fact, I I'm uh strong Advocate that we not really Take any of the Weather Service warnings nowadays very lightly, you know for some for some people on unfortunately even today when the siren sounds or when the alarm goes off on the NOAA Weather Radio when they get a warning message, that's the trigger to run outside and see what's going on and and II think that in the context of judgment today, that's that's very poor judgment. Although you may have a you know, a great curiosity take care of yourself first and then maybe satisfy your curiosity by watching the the program's the satellite imagery the radar and the other visual depictions of what the storm was like, but you certainly don't have to capture it on your own (00:16:41) eyes. Wanda is on the line from Starbuck with a comment want to go ahead please. (00:16:47) Hi, good morning. How are you? I want to make a comment last year. Our home was taken on June the 11th. When the tornado hit Benson Minnesota and I just want to tell everybody to take it very seriously. I was at work and wasn't at home when it hit but I was telling us fellow employee that everything was going to be alright, and that tornadoes really are that bad and will be okay and sure enough I was wrong. So it was a big emotional impact on the family and I just hope that everybody really listens and take safety (00:17:23) precautions. So in the past you had tended to kind of poo poo these things a little (00:17:27) bit. Is that right? Yes. I had just Actually, we I did go to a place of safety where we were at work, but I was not real thrilled, but I thought it's not going to get me and it destroyed our home it just I mean pulled off our garage door off the roof and we had to relocate there were 35 Acres of woods around us. That was totally destroyed. It looks like somebody play Pick-up sticks right now and we sold our land moved away. They're probably going to clear it and develop that land and it's just unbelievable what happened in such a short amount of time. (00:18:13) Why does thanks for your call? And I hope you have a better summer this (00:18:16) year I do to thank you. Bye. (00:18:18) Bye Craig. Does that get pretty frustrating to those of you out of the Weather Service the issue the warnings and all the rest and frankly a lot of people don't take these things very seriously. (00:18:32) Well, I'm glad I'm Cameron you can see my blood boiling. That's a year after year. We do these awareness weeks. We tell people we caution them. We give them the information and then it undoubtedly something comes along and says, I didn't know what could happen here. I didn't expect it to happen here. We had no warning and and I think people have got realized that nobody is off-limits to Mother Nature. There is no status with Mother Nature. You're your economic situation doesn't matter. Although all those things are out the window. It's just that everybody has to recall that their own Public Safety is at risk During a severe weather event and when I went out and did a survey following the comfrey and st. Peter tornado. I continue to hear people say we didn't think it could happen here. It hadn't happened before so we get this impression that mother nature tends to put these tornadoes through areas that That are going to impact us. So all I would caution people is to say we are in a business. This is to provide information timely information. And though the way we can be of most value is if people I'd like to say people should be busy bodies during severe weather report what you see when you see a so we can help share that information that tornado and Benson as soon as I started to develop we were grasping at information so we could validate the what the radar was showing what people were reporting say, yeah, we had something on the ground so we could communicate it what's really frustrating to me is when I find out that there was some some semblance or evidence of a tornado and it get it didn't get reported to the Weather Service our Radars looking up at the clouds out on the ground. So we need to know what's on the ground so we can communicate that information to get people to take action. So the more information we get into our office and more we can give back to the public. (00:20:26) Let's go back. Let's go back to the phones here. Tom's on the line with a comment for us Tom. Go ahead, please (00:20:32) so I'm on I thought I always watch the weather and listen and take advantage of the warnings of one time. I didn't because I was tired of kind of this crying wolf, which I know you're you know vulnerable to be being accused of and my car was destroyed in South Minneapolis by hail. I had to take cover. So I guess a you know, I'm one of those stories that you don't like to hear but how often are you accused of crying wolf, you know USU these things and then nothing happens and if they see I told you I'm going to go out. Thanks for a great question because we are on the side of safety. We can't take a risk that if we see something on radar and is coming toward a populated area and nothing has been reported. That doesn't mean that it isn't happening. A lot of times people get stunned when they see something like that. They almost got paralyzed and they say and then then you start calling local people. Maybe you start calling your neighbors and friends say hey, I see something coming head for cover. And then the Aaron gets blown and then all of a sudden maybe 10 minutes later that information gets to the Weather Service and you hear something has occurred. So what we tend to do if we see something on radar based on our meteorological experience and the Doppler is a very good tool to give us Clues. We will issue a tornado warning is just based on the Doppler radar. And unfortunately we have about a 70% false alarm that despite what we're seeing in the clouds and what we think might be happening. It's not happening on the ground. So we're we're not happy to report that but that's the fact of the matter but we can't take that chance of the 30% probability. There's something is happening and then we wait for a place to get hit and then we issue the warning for three farmsteads that are down down the path. They doesn't deserve the warning but now we just missed a warning and and now we have the potential for fatalities. Let me tell you Aguirre. That is I'm looking at the tornado statistics for 2002 From The Storm Prediction Center. The number of tornadoes is downed there has been zero. Fatality is according to the statistics for 2002 from tornadoes this year. So I don't want Minnesota to be on the map tomorrow morning that we had a tornado activity and we had people killed. So again, we are on the side of safety and it's we're only going to inconvenience people for a matter of minutes and I hope that doesn't disrupt their lifestyle but err on the side of safety and and we'll all be better (00:22:56) off people a lot of people wait for the sirens to go off Mark. Is there any uniform standards for when those Sirens are triggered? (00:23:06) Well, I wish there was and I'm not absolutely up-to-date as we stand now, but in recent years there were discrepancies in their there were Regional based discrepancies such that the warning system, especially with sounding the sirens across the communities was not necessarily uniform in terms of the preparedness some some communities had for example As is often the case with severe weather you lose power and power dependent alarm systems. Then are of no use to you. You have to have some kind of power back up some communities have seen to it that they have this in place and some have not so that was one discrepancy that had been pointed out in recent years. I'm not sure what other discrepancies are out there as of yet. But Craig may know more about that area, too. I'm glad you brought up the question of sirens because it's an outdoor warning system people think it's an indoor warning system and some people like to hear hear the sirens before it validates the warning and as I travel around and I talked to other meteorologist across the country. It's almost the standard at people if there is no siren people say they had no warning, you know, you can have warnings on TV and radio with it till the tornado siren goes off. It's not validated. It's just part of a tool to get people. Tune into weather information to say what's going on with the weather and I think between the weather radio the siren systems the internet systems the Porsche systems that are out there to give people information. There should be enough Clues out there to Something's coming. So I hate to have people caught off guard (00:24:51) just to just to clarify here just because a siren hasn't sounded doesn't mean that there isn't the Potential Threat to your immediate (00:25:00) area at the edge exactly right into there that you could be the wind direction could be blowing at sound away from you and you didn't hear that. So the siren systems are a part of the warning system, but I would not wait for the siren to go off before I moved to safety matter of fact, there's a lot of visual clues that people just to being astute can say it's getting black. There's the the lightning is increasing. I know there's potential for severe weather. Let's start thinking now about going to a place of safety so that within a matter of seconds we could locate to that area the siren sounds validates it matter of fact, that would be the next question. I would have to sum Our listeners how much lead time would they like to have her during a tornado event? We think that maybe a 30 minute lead time beyond that that's that's almost too long of a lead time. So I'd like to hear some of the comments from the listeners on how much lead time. They think is sufficient for a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. Okay. We'll put (00:25:52) that question to the listeners Craig Edwards who is meteorologist in charge of the Twin Cities Office of the National Weather Service is with us here to talk about severe weather we could get some today. And so there's something to ponder. How much lead time. Do you want for the Weather Service tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings Mark Celia's with us University Minnesota climatologist meteorologist and a regular weather commentator here on Minnesota Public Radio. We do invite you to give us a call with your questions and comments X51 2276 thousand or 1-800 to for 22828. We'll get to more of your questions in just a couple of minutes British guitarist, John. Williams has recorded over 70 albums but after a half century of Performing classical and folk music from Europe and the Americas his musical Explorations have taken him somewhere new Africa. I'm Lisa molins guitarist John Williams. And the latest news from the Middle East on the next edition of the world at seven o'clock this evening here on Minnesota public radio programming of Minnesota. Public. Radio is supported by Sarah Kenny professional Real Estate Services matching people with property for over 20 years Coldwell Banker Burnett in the Crocus Hill office. By the way, your membership makes public radio happen. We thank you for your continued support news headlines. Now, here's got a Cunningham Greta. Thanks Gary. Good morning, the US Supreme Court today struck down a congressional ban on Virtual child pornography. The justices say the first amendment protects images that only appear to show children engaged in sex. The 623 ruling is a victory for both pornographers and legitimate artists such as Movie Makers who argued that a Broadband Simulated child sex could make it a crime to depict a sex scene like those in recent movies such as traffic or Lolita. The court said language in a 1996 child pornography law was unconstitutionally vague and far-reaching. It won't quite be a formal ceasefire. But US Secretary of State Colin Powell is hoping for something close to that. He's been meeting again today with Israel's prime minister and has another meeting set with Yasser Arafat. He's hoping for some kind of ceasefire plan within 24 hours. It's another step toward bringing Afghanistan into the post-taliban era the country's interim leader has arrived in Rome to bring home his country's to pose King. The former Monarch has been in Exile in Italy for nearly three decades a government report says consumer Prices rose by a modest three-tenths of a percent last month suggesting inflation is mostly under control despite higher energy costs in Regional news State lawmakers are negotiating the state's budget and transportation bills today Senators. Hope to increase gas taxes by six cents per gallon and spend money on roads and Transit house members say they don't want To increase any taxes for Road improvements Governor. Jesse Ventura says the XFL Football League paid for about 320 thousand dollars of expenses during his 13 week stint as a television commentator, but the governor is still not revealing the fees. He was paid. He doesn't have to report a salary just the charter flights limo rides and meals and lodging he received in connection with XFL broadcasts the forecast for Minnesota has a wind advisory today for Central and Southern Minnesota. It will be windy and warm in the South scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the west and North sometime this afternoon, some of those storms could be severe high temperatures today will range from 65 in the north to near 88 degrees in the South right now in cook. It's sunny and 72 Rochester reports cloudy skies and 72. It's partly sunny and Duluth and 53 Fair skies and Moorhead and 72 and in the Twin Cities scattered clouds with a temperature of 74 Gary. That's a look at the latest news. Thanks Greta 26 minutes before twelve o'clock. This is midday on Minnesota Public Radio and Cause we might get some severe weather today and because this is a tornado and severe weather awareness week. We thought today on. Midday, we would focus on on tornadoes severe thunderstorms in the west bone up on our weather knowledge. So we're ready to go if if the warnings are posted Craig Edwards is with us meteorologist in charge of the Twin Cities Office of the National Weather Service in Mark Sealy has joined us as well University of Minnesota climatologists and meteorologist. Lots of callers on the line with questions and comments for our weather experts. Rondi your necks. Go ahead please (00:30:08) hi. I have a question. Yes. What do you do? If you are in your car out in the middle of nowhere and suddenly you see bad weather around you mark boy. That's a tough one Rhonda. I if you're if there's absolutely nothing around in a situation like that. You might be better off to stay in your car if you have Ability because you have Mobility or at least you have better Mobility than you would have on foot if there's a ditch near by or some place for you to take cover. That's probably also a good idea. However increasingly, I think the weather service is warning against something that used to be thought as a safe haven, which is a a Road overpass or a bridge. I guess. There's been some recent incidents where those have who have been getting out of their vehicles and trying to take cover in and around those structures have been have been injured. So I don't know whether Craig has any other modifications to that he would be another one that would have a worthwhile opinion on that. Right? Well, I know a Dan Miller who used to be at our office as a trainee it was down in Oklahoma City for the Oklahoma City tornado in 1998, and they had considerable traffic jams on the interstate with people stopping to take shelter. Under the overpass is there and the study showed that what happens is the actual the wind gets funneled into that area and you're putting yourself in like in a blender, where is all sorts of debris can just slam into you. I think the safe thing to do in an automobile is try to have an awareness of maybe we're a rest stop is or you see thunder or see lightning and or Thunders approaching try to judge your travel so you can say well I could look like I got about 10 minutes. I can make it up to the next town. I'll just take an exit pull off into a convenience store or something. So just try to get to a safe place before the storm hits even if it isn't severe because you might have blinding rain and hail and maybe disruptive a dangerous to your travel at a speed of 65 miles an hour. I remember driving through Atlanta one night and saw thunder storm approaching and wasn't smart enough to turn off and get off the highway and we had 65 mile an hour winds and blinding rain. We're doing 65. That's not that good. Not be able to see if a couple feet in front of you. (00:32:35) But Craig any tips for our caller. If you are marooned out in the middle of nowhere, there's nothing in sight no place to (00:32:43) go. You are at the you no mercy of Mother Nature because the the fatality and st. Peter comfrey tornado was a minivan where people just just were caught in the circumstances where you had nowhere safe to take shelter. So I think what you have to do is just feel intuition just say what do I need to do here? Is there a road I can turn down and and and maybe avoid the thunderstorm of the tornado. We try to say drive at right angles, but you got to assess that first about which way right angle might be and secondly there has to be a road that goes at right angle. So maybe you maybe you just need to stop and assess the situation just say Let me let me get my wits about myself and if you do have to abandon your vehicle suggest you go to a ditch or Ravine and look for a young tree a small tree that has some Bility to it and said of a forested area. Just just get to the ditch as quickly as you can (00:33:40) Mike's on the line and Mike. I understand you two are a meteorologist in charge of the Duluth office of the weather service, (00:33:47) right? Yes. I'm Craig's counterpart up here and both Greg and I are offices work closely together and forecasting the weather and then especially on days like this when severe weather is in their area moves in our area. We're always on the phone a lot and just kind of emphasizing just call to emphasize the the threat of severe weather today and what we're expecting with damaging winds and large hail across most like the area that our office is responsible for Northeast, Minnesota Northwest, Wisconsin, and just to back up a lot of things that Craig and Mark has (00:34:23) said well, thanks for calling in Mike and thanks for keeping us posted on weather in your part (00:34:29) of the state. Appreciate it. Thank you. (00:34:32) How much? Craig Edwards, how much lead time do you folks get in terms of a (00:34:41) tornado? Well, what we're shooting for is, you know, if we're going to post some goals and it's always good to have some goals and aim high but also you've got to be realistic and we are thinking that somewhere in the order of a 10 to 12 minute lead time allows enough time for people to call somebody else again save you heard about a warning I found when I was down in Oklahoma City that their people just driving around and they're tuned to radio stations that are just more interested in playing rock and they're doing their thing and are not given weather information and then somebody actually called them and says, did you know that there's a storm coming here you aware of that and whether we are we are such weather Fanatics it Weather Service. So we're thinking everybody's excited and exclude in as we are and I find that that's not true. There's people that are just doing their thing and they're not interested in that. So we think that if we give a 10-minute warning that As people time to call other people and move people to safety and so I'm afraid if we give like a 30-minute lead time that's people get people are expecting instantaneous weather and it and I think 30 minutes might be too long. So we're shooting for about a 10 to 12 minute. I I wonder if that fits with what other people are (00:35:53) thinking. Well so far one person has called in and suggested as long a lead time as possible half hour 45 minutes. What's your what's your thinking on this Mark on the one hand? It would be good. I supposed to have a nice long lead time on the other hand if if mr. Edwards and his crew issue a warning and you look outside and boy, it's really nice out. Wouldn't you tend to Discount that warning? (00:36:20) Yeah, that's a very good point Gary and of course we're dealing with the variability here in people's personalities and how they handle how they handle stress how they react to getting a message that raises apprehension and You know if we had a I suppose if we had a model personality of our citizen out there we could maybe hone in on that a little bit but I don't I don't think we're ever going to get it. I I think that you know trying to have a reasonable lead time though as Craig said a Target setting a Target 10 to 12 minutes or something like that is probably realistic in terms of getting information out. If you told certain people with a 30-minute or 40-minute lead time for crying out loud there you'd probably get Applause but you'd probably also get some grapes just because of the variation in the way people handle apprehension out there. It's that's that's really a difficult question. I'm not might add that one underlying theme in our conversation for the hour so far that I would really like to emphasize is the importance of NOAA Weather Radio whether it be that Traveling across Minnesota or you're traveling and another state whether it be that you're camping and The Boundary Waters canoe area or whether it be you're at home or you're at your office at NPR or at one of the government buildings downtown your kids school. It doesn't matter. There was a proposal in Congress recently that now with the technology to do specific area messaging on the no alarm radios that every public building including Schools and Government institutions should have this at their disposal so that they can receive firsthand straight from the Weather Service Office the watch and warning information and I'm a big advocate of that Gary. I think that that's something everybody should seriously (00:38:22) consider. Let's go back to the phone's carries on the line with a comment carry. Go ahead, please. (00:38:28) Yes. I live out in Credit River Township, which has become more populated and we Without any weather Sirens or that we can hear the on contacting my Township Personnel. Is there a source for more information on Sirens so that I can provide that information to them? I would suggest you contact your local County Emergency Management director. The Emergency Management people in Minnesota are standing there wanting to do the right thing for the community for the community at large. And I know in Chanhassen here a couple years ago as we expanded there was not enough siren systems. They looked at their budget and say well, what are we going to cut if we're going to put $150,000 in the budget for a siren system? What what are we going to take that money from? So I think in the interest of Public Safety everybody would benefit from a siren system. And so I suggest you contact your Emergency Management director of the county and say what can we do to help get a movement going to establish a Baseline and some strategies for putting in Siren system is a community continues to (00:39:34) develop back to the phones Sean's on the line with a comment for us. Go ahead Shaun. (00:39:40) Oh, hi. I live in Downtown Minneapolis and my question. As if a tornado should strike the tornado suit strike Hennepin County how How likely will it be to have have any impact or any significant impact on out for those of us that live in the downtown area (00:39:59) here? Okay. Thanks Sean. Well that raises the interesting question about the so-called heat island effect. There is a theory and probably still is a theory that says essentially if you're in the middle of a big metropolitan area are pretty safe because those storms tend to bounce around the outside of the metro area any truth to that (00:40:20) Seeley. I have not seen any documentation that would That would substantiate that the downtown Minneapolis area would have a relatively lower probability of having a tornado than any other part of the landscape in Hennepin County. I in fact some of the more devastating tornadoes in history have actually hit. Well the one for example in Omaha Nebraska that I think previous to the Oklahoma City tornado was the costliest in US history that hit downtown Omaha back in the seventies and caused over a billion dollars worth of damage. So but again, that's that's based on what I know of the research in the area and what I've (00:41:14) seen Craig, what's your is there anything to the heat island Theory? (00:41:20) Well, I suppose until until we get something going through downtown. We could always say that there's a theory that something the major urban area with the additional heat to the city. Has something to do with limiting the potential but I agree with Mark that we saw a tornado is real close to downtown Nashville, Salt Lake City. Again. This is these theories it says if it hasn't happened, I guess it doesn't happen and mother nature and I don't I just don't think we've got enough information to say that that that's a protective Factor the heat island (00:41:51) effect. If you are downtown and a storm does roll through the middle of downtown if you're in one of those high-rises, are you a pretty much a goner or are the way we are the way we build those large buildings now, are they strong enough to withstand a severe storm either one of you know anything about (00:42:11) that. Well Mark, you want to start out with something? Well, I know that there is a a wind in architecture. So to speaker in the building trade. There is a consideration. I know when he put up multi-story buildings in terms of withstanding certain levels of wind. I don't know that tornado with winds are factored into play there. The the the other feature course with the tornado is that you have a rotating you you don't have necessarily have a straight line wind. So you have rotating winds. I really don't know I would guess my personal reaction would be that I would have great anxiety. If I were caught in the upper levels of one of those downtown buildings and that I would want to get out of there as rapidly as I could. If for no other reason that they're the exterior walls are so full of glass that I wouldn't want to be around with all that's kind of thing flying (00:43:16) around Greg. Would you join Mark and his Exodus from the skyscraper (00:43:20) know it what I would do is yeah, I would sort of have an awareness and I sort of be waking my way over to the exits and this gets back to the NOAA Weather Radio and the alert systems that we do these drills and we've been a lot of focus on schools and public institutions and I just wonder how much emphasis we are placing on Public Safety in in manufacturing or industrial plants or business buildings and says, let's find we're going to save all the school kids and their moms and dads are down in these high-rises thinking that these architectural we build a building that could withstand a tornado. I recommend people have somebody who is the safety officer say where we going to go during a severe weather event these windows blow in you know, we're just sitting Target. So if nothing else you should be going to the interior portion the restroom facility a hallway. We don't want you running out in the street running to your cars, you know, you debris will be all over the place. So interior portion of a building the lowest level is always the safe recommendation (00:44:23) Kelly's up next here with a comment for us or question Kelly. Go ahead, (00:44:27) please yes, good morning. All three of you excellent topic, especially since it feels like severe weather season outside today. My questions actually look for you know, the news media makes a lot about severe weather in Texas Oklahoma and then to a certain extent Indiana and Illinois, I guess how does our severe weather here in the Upper Midwest compared to that also, what about should refresh people's memory and what they should do if they're in you know shopping centers, you know per se and then also like to the topic of I know I hear more about it in other parts of the country, which I've lived in and traveled in but don't You hear a lot about our people don't seem to focus on a much here in this part of the country. And that is flash flooding associated with severe weather. Okay. Well our full (00:45:22) catalog their first of all, how do we compare with the Oklahoma's in Texas of this (00:45:28) world? I can at least take a shot at that one historically at least in tornado frequency. And that's not Bland area that strictly by State Minnesota is about 18th among states. So we're I mean, you know, I don't know if we're a little closer to the to the top of the pack than the bottom. I don't know. However, if our rank historically has been changing in recent years since the number of tornadoes per year has been if you will kind of on an upward trend for the for the last decade or more so we might possibly be creeping up in that (00:46:10) ranking quick. On shopping centers, if you find yourself in a shopping center severe weather breaks out is the most of those places have places. You're supposed to run (00:46:21) to well, I think on cold now I might be wrong. I think on Modern code they're supposed to have they have to have at least a mall type or a multi retail type of structure has to have a place for citizens to go. I don't know that all of the older ones have have accommodated that feature. But certainly I believe that that's that that's cold (00:46:50) nowadays and Craig how dangerous is the are house. How severe is the threat of flash flooding in Minnesota? (00:46:57) Well, that's that's an issue that we have to educate people on doing a better job that we cars are not boats. We find that the facilities and flash floods. A lot of the times are people trying to drive through a flooded area that they just exist on a To be somewhere and people with a lot of intelligence just under that situation just seemed to think that the car is going to be about and so we want to tell people during a high water flash flood event. Stay on High Ground. Try to stay where you're located. If you're camping I try to have an awareness of the weather before you go to bed that night whether you have an Escape Route so flash flooding we were working hard on that this year. We just had each forecaster through a to our simulation of a flash flood event in our warning events simulator to get a better handle on getting a longer lead time on flash flooding the statistics at 74 tornadoes of put us off the charts last year. The good news about that was a great majority of where F 0 and F once so the tornado statistics continue to rise in Minnesota. And while we were talking they just came in with the new updated severe weather outlook Potential from the Storm Prediction Center. They quite literally have the whole state of Minnesota under what we call a high risk with. Damaging thunderstorm winds later this afternoon and evening. (00:48:15) So that's for today later this afternoon and I had and virtually the entire State. Can you narrow it down just a tad more in terms of the the area. That's most likely going to get whacked if anybody (00:48:25) does. Well. It looks like the whole state they have got literally they drawed the borders. They followed the borders of Minnesota into West Central Wisconsin all of the warning area that forecast office in Minnesota responsibility for the think that the thunderstorms are going to fire up a West Central Minnesota Benson area on up toward Fargo and Grand Forks and that whole area will light up with thunderstorms for five o'clock and then rapidly race Eastward. So we're looking at something that we're going to be under the gun probably dinner hour and West Central Minnesota and then on it to East Central, Minnesota Wisconsin toward dark and then into the darkness hours (00:49:03) going to say, can you give us a better idea when that storm system might arrive in the Twin (00:49:08) Cities? Well, we were thinking initially with the first set of computer products. We saw this Arne is be around 8 or 9 o'clock, you know, that's the sort of like those the window were putting out here and then we'll have to see how things progress but once these thunderstorms get fired up. I'm afraid you're going to move quickly. And so people just you know, if you blink of an eye you might might was a miss a warning. So we're going to use our partners in the broadcast media to rely on them to deliver that information. I think will keep most people safe Cattlemen we're out of time but I sure appreciate your joining (00:49:38) us today. Thanks so much. (00:49:39) Thank you very thank you Gary. Thanks Mark. Great job (00:49:42) our guests today Craig Edwards. Who's the meteorologist in charge of the Twin Cities Office of the National Weather Service and Mark Sealy meteorologist climatologist at the University, Minnesota and course irregular here on Minnesota Public Radio. We will keep you posted of course through the afternoon and into the night if severe weather develops, and of course keep keep alert to your local situation. That's the best way to find out what's going on. We should note by the way this being severe weather awareness week. They're going to be testing the sirens on Thursday 145 and 655 on Thursday. But unfortunately we might get an early test today hip-hop Bebop jazz blues and swing Baroque 12-tone rock reggae or folk no matter what type of music you're looking for one click will find it by it and deliver it the public radio music Source w-w-w dot p is dot-org. It's 5 minutes now before 12 o'clock quick reminder over the noon hour. We're going to hear from psychologists and best-selling author. Mary pifer who has just completed a work on the refugee experience in