Nick Hayes discusses stability in the Balkans

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World leaders, including President Clinton and the Russian Prime Minister, are holding a summit in Sarajevo to seek stability in the Balkans. We'll discuss the prospects with Hamline University History professor Nick Hayes, who will join us from Banja Luca, Bosnia. Hayes has been spending the past week in Kosovo and Macedonia.

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(00:00:08) Welcome to midday on Minnesota Public Radio. I'm John Ray be sitting in for Gary eichten. President Clinton today offered a US Aid package worth nearly 700 million dollars for post-war reconstruction in the Balkans Clinton unveiled the program embracing eight South East European countries, but excluding Serbia at a summit in the Bosnian Capital launched a long-term International effort to bring peace and prosperity to the Balkans. Meanwhile British Prime Minister Tony Blair told Balkan States today that Western governments would repay their help during the Kosovo conflict but insisted Serbia would be excluded from the plan to develop the region until it removes president Slobodan milosevic speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the summit Blair said the International Community had the chance to put an end to a cycle of bloody Balkan Wars if it succeeded in bringing peace and stability to the region Nick Hayes the Hamline University history Professor who is frequently our eyes and ears in the Balkans has been spending the past week and Kosovo and Macedonia and he joins us for this hour of midday. Besser good to talk with you again. (00:01:23) Good to hear from you. Gentlemen, (00:01:25) the case is on the line from Banja Luka Bosnia. We'd like to take your calls with your comments and questions 6512276 thousand 6512276 thousand or 1-800 to for to 28 28 toll-free 1-800-221-9460 talking reconstruction in this hour of midday building stability in the Balkans. Let me start Professor. What do you make of The Summit in Sarajevo with Clinton with Blair with yevgeny primakov the Russian Prime Minister? (00:02:02) Well, I think it's at least grounds for some optimism and the sense that to be honest Jonathan we can take at least some consolation that International intervention brought the horrors of the wars of the Balkans and Yugoslavia finally to an end and there is some stability here on the Side of it. Basically what we're witnessing is what amounts to the creation certainly for Bosnia been affected International protectorate and it's inevitable that in the next stages in this province of Serbia Kosovo. You'll see the same thing. I have to confess that the policy towards isolated Milankovitch the policy towards isolating Serbia, unfortunately underscores to me and to many others that we really haven't found a solution ultimately for the root political cause that was the government in Belgrade its policies the General Sir policies that led to the crisis of the whole area and I'm afraid that we'll have to see increased instability probably coming in the fall and winter from that part of the Balkans. (00:03:05) Are you saying here that just blaming milosevic is a bad (00:03:09) idea certainly it is in the sense that number one in a way. It's too easy Jonathan. I mean most of which in my judgment although I have to confess most of my friends around here in the former Yugoslavia. Don't agree with me. It would seem apparent to me that he can't survive except by the most brutal show of force as he goes into the fall facing the forthcoming elections and massive discontent massive opposition and Strikes. I think he would fall of his own accord, but the promise is not just milosevich. I mean you could easily see a cynical group of people who pursued the same policies maintain the same attitude and say well I'm afraid milosevich is no dispensable and get rid of him and you're going to find yourself basically working with his cronies, but they claim to be now the untimely loss of its forces. (00:03:53) So what will the instability look like? What will they do? Well, and what do they dare do with you know the forces that are in place? (00:04:01) Well right now the forces look like this there have been mounting student demonstrations out of Belle grid, the political opposition has become more and more daring. They've called for a series of strikes in September. They have showed at least the ability to form at least two major political opposition bloc's. I guess we should explain that to our listeners one of the weakness on the Serbian opposition. Is they've never been able to form an effective Alliance to deal with milosevic on the other hand the head of the Serbian military forces is indicated adamantly that the military will defend the government in the phase of any Street demonstrations. It will defend the loss of its regime and more or less set the tone for the types of problems that beset Serbia before the war in 1990 91 and 92. (00:04:52) So looks like a very busy possibly though bloody coming months, or will it be more on the Civil side? Use do you think I mean if if Malolos if milosevic leaves peacefully then that would maybe leave the military out of having to defend him, right? (00:05:12) Yeah. Well, the military has left a number of Clues number one that hit will defend any elected government of Serbia. It will defend milosevich as the elected government, but it left wide open the eye. It would defend another elected government and I don't want to send some sort of alarm in this conversation. I'm trying to underscore that what you're witnessing coming out of Serbia now is Extreme civil discontent, you have refugees flowing and you have former soldiers coming back without pay without work without housing conditions. You have an economic debacle. Anyway, I have massive Devastation. I mean the road infrastructure the bridge is everything is not operating. So it's inevitable that you have a social turmoil coming in that country actual Bloodshed. I may be an overstatement. Certainly you're going to see some violence. You probably see a few political assassinations many people are betting that the ultimate solution to loss of which will probably be assassination by the way, but no, I'm not talking about an outright Civil War because the Yugoslav National Army ultimately wants to stay out of (00:06:12) it 13 minutes past eleven o'clock. You're listening to midday and Minnesota Public Radio Our Guest is Nick Hayes Hamline University history Professor on the line from Your Luca Bosnia. He's been disco pieta Pristina to Villages and Kosovo and in just a minute. We'll get him to tell us some of the things that he has seen But I want to bring Diane into the conversation from Columbia Heights Diane. Welcome to midday. Thank you for (00:06:38) calling. Hi John. I wanted to say that I believe that Tony Blair is wrong that molasses which should be included in the peace plan because he is the head of the Serbian (00:06:52) Nation. But he's convicted war criminals and he or indicted war (00:06:58) criminal that may be but in the fire department and Kristina the albanians and serbs were getting along for a long time. Until they felt mistrust of NATO and molasses of (00:07:14) it. Well, this has been done. Another country is Nick Hayes, you know the Khmer Rouge brought into the government. They deal with the Sinn Fein and Northern Ireland the political wing of the IRA. Is it a horrible idea to bring milosevic into (00:07:29) talks? Well, it's not I mean to be honest John I suspect we'll see something of analogous to the artery solution here were some other forces out of Serbia put on a more Progressive moderate face and accept. It may be a bit more realism in dealing with the West. Let me just follow up to what seems to be really happening reports. For example. Now that I am in Bosnia, I happen to be Banja Luka, by the way for the sake of our audience is really the second largest city of Bosnia and it's the heart of the Serbian Republic of Bosnia. This is served country here and apparently the United Nations and NATO forces are getting a little more aggressive and sending out hence that they are going to be actively looking for some of the more notorious war criminals and because Clinton More or less put this on the line Blair has put it on the line the message seems unequivocal that the loss of its must go and to the point that he can't travel abroad and the hints his bank accounts have been frozen. We in Zurich and he has some assets I guess left on the island of Cyprus considerable and we're guessing that basically might accept either internal Exile and Serbia or exiled to Cyprus itself. But you know, I believe is Diane it's hard to answer these kinds of questions about how we deal with someone like milosevic and how he when he has let us emphasize this he was an elected official. I mean the Serbian people did elect and we may have many reservations about the election itself, but he was elected and unfortunately whether it be the bombing of Kosovo or in effect an economic Embargo of Serbia, our instrument of policy always relies upon the collective punishment of the Nations and here you have the Serbian people as a whole who frankly have been brutalized in the course of this last spring. Against the Belgrade government most of whom would tell you in our heart of hearts. They basically don't like milosevic when you look across the landscape of Kosovo as as you relate a moment ago where I just spent the last two days we saved that country by reducing it to Virtual Rubble. The place is literally destroyed. So in effect, yes, we may have saved it but we did so at an extreme cost of collective punishment to the area as a whole. (00:09:41) Our phone numbers are 6 512276 thousand 6512276 thousand or one eight hundred two four to Twenty Eight twenty eight one eight hundred two, four two 2828. Give us a call. Let us know what you think of the situation in the Balkans. Is it hypocritical for us to bomb the heck out of them basically and then set up this big reconstruction campaign. What do you think about the the way we are treating the situation? What do you think about The Strife between now the returning? Albanians and the serbs many of whom are fleeing Kosovo. If not almost all of them. Give us a call and let us know what you think about what's happening six five. One two, two seven six thousand or 1-800 to for to 2828. You'd been to scope it to Pristina to Villages. Where have you gone? What were you looking for? What did you learn? (00:10:37) Well, actually John I've been in a long project. I spent the previous week or more in Russia. First of all kind of on a project with the Star Tribune newspaper investigating social changes in Russia, 10 years after communism and in the former Yugoslavia from Croatia through Macedonia into Kosovo, and now across Bosnia, I'm working on a project on the overall tragedy of human displacement refugees and the Long Road Home how difficult it is for the refugees of the former Yugoslavia who may have been 800 to 900 thousand displaced all told to come back in fact To a Homeland that really doesn't exist anymore now, I guess I because I may come off too negative and perhaps too alarmist and some of the descriptions John. I mean, I don't want to share with you some thoughts on what it is like to drive into Kosovo in to Pristina on the one hand, you know, I if I fumble and hesitate for words, it's because we've used all of these words so many times genocide ethnic cleansing conflict house burnings lootings that I'm almost suspicious that the words don't mean anything to us anymore. There is an utter Horror in the era area a sense of human tragedy and also the devastation of war that literally makes one speechless, but there are other signs that there's three things that absolutely amaze me number one. It is true the people line the streets. I have been traveling with representatives of Minnesota's own American Refugee committee, and because we wear their As an NGO and because the highways are dominated by NATO Vehicles, which they are primitive little roads that in which huge Naval NATO convoys Sheriff the roadside with donkey traffic and small horse and carts the streets at virtually every intersection are lined with children women and old men waving at NATO and any foreign presence that has come in. I mean you generally get a sense. There's no question that among the kosovar albanians. They are overwhelmed by the presence that they feel came in from NATO. And from ngos to save them. I was also impressed to be honest. I'd incredible resilience of these Albanian refugees, you know that the roughly quarter million who fled the country one doesn't know exactly now because numbers are getting very difficult, but it could be as low as about 40,000 are left abroad maybe 50,000. They have rushed back in there. They are living in tents other living inside bombed-out homes, but speaking to them their resilience and enthusiasm there. The mortars already been laid bricks are being put in place fragile. Roofs are going out there absolutely determined to go back even though these Villages are Ensure rubble and to live their lives again. And finally, let me stop you there. Yeah, where do they get that spirit? I really wish I know Jonathan because maybe it would help a lot of us to understand this I have to tell you it's quite different by contrast in dealing with the Serbian refugees saying the area I've been in today, which is Western Bosnia. These Serbian refugees are bosniaks qz Croatian serbs who were driven out of Croatia in the summer of 1995 and also the Croatian and Bosnian refugees who are still not able to return to their homes, even if they have their seems among them a sense of Despair Gloom of world lost for whatever reason the kosovar albanians have a ferocious sense of place a ferocious dedication to that beautiful mountain valley they came from and I think it is also That they have very tightly knit family and Clan structures that work very efficiently and very simple and limited economic resources and are quite willing to go back and start up from scratch and for whatever reasons of their their optimism seems exceptionally High (00:14:31) 21 minutes past eleven o'clock the number to call to talk with Nick Hayes Hamline University history professor in Banja Luka is 6512276 thousand in the Twin Cities or 1-800 to for to 2828 toll-free Randy from Minneapolis is on the line Randy. Welcome to midday. (00:14:52) Thank you. Yeah. I just wanted to make a comment about how I think he said that it whether it was hypocritical to go in and rebuild the country after having somewhat destroyed it. Did you say that? Yeah. I asked that question. Okay, and I don't know how it could be hypocritical the United States because that seems to be our standard policy except maybe in a row. But we're still basically a war with them. We're still bombing them. It seems like every other week and probably once we perhaps bring them to their knees will go and do that there too. So, that's really my comment. Okay. Should we (00:15:30) be rebuilding should we president unveiled this 700 million dollar Aid (00:15:36) package today. Well, I don't know how yeah, I definitely think we should I mean we intervened and a country's Affairs and we definitely obviously we did some damage not to say that obviously the serbians weren't responsible for some damage, but there evidently not going to go help and rebuild Albania. So I think it is somewhat not it's really not a matter of responsibility. It's a matter of really helping to stabilize the region once again, if I could maybe pick up and Randy's point, I mean this actually is not a matter of guilt on the part of the United. States if we can put aside all the moral questions of our policy really from the very beginning whether we were morally a responsible in the beginning for not intervening or and whether we were morally responsible for finally intervening to aggressively is a separate question. The economic stability is absolutely essential for the future of this area. And this is exactly the mainstream of European and American policy that the conflicts of the former Yugoslavia really started as economic tensions increased in the late 70s and 80s. And if somehow more economic stability can be pumped into this region it at least gives a floor for hoping that out of economic stability will become a better way of life. And the other questions are is it hypocritical? No, it's merely an instrument of policy and there's no question. We are the main agents together with various other International organizations in rebuilding the economic structure of the country. Is that have been devastated by the war in Kosovo? It's only a relatively small area in Bosnia. It's a much much larger area there. We did not significantly militarily intervene, but it is our a dime just spent the afternoon driving through a series of American and European reconstruction projects rebuilding Bridges highways roads houses. That was not Devastation due to American influence. But in the end it is part of our policy simply to hope that in a stable economic environment the Balkans can finally get themselves out of this cycle of warped Devastation and recrimination that is characterized it for 10 (00:17:53) years. That'd be a bad idea. If I were to run through some of the things that this Aid package would include this is from Reuters came down just today and again President Clinton offering a US Aid package worth nearly 700 million dollars for post-war reconstruction in the Balkans. Here are some details the u.s. Overseas private Investment corporation will create one or more private-sector investment. Aimed at providing up to a hundred fifty million dollars to finance companies in the Balkans will also provide a 200 million dollar credit line for business projects with significant participation by us firms. The US will contribute 34 million dollars of which 15 million will be delivered in the first year to a loan program for small businesses. This will be in conjunction with an 80 million dollar program under the European bank for reconstruction and development. The US will also provide 16 million dollars and technical assistance us will work with International financial institutions in the private sector to establish a $200,000,000 regional Equity Fund to invest in Balkan companies. This would not directly involve us funds countries in southeast Europe would be granted expanded duty-free access for five years to export to the United States products newly receiving duty-free treatment would be shoes which are the region second largest export ball bearings and certain glass where the program which requires Congressional approval would cost the u.s. 70 million dollars in What they call for gone duties. So these are these duties that they would forgive eligible countries include Albania Bosnia, Herzegovina Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania and Slovenia as well as Kosovo and Montenegro in Yugoslavia, Serbia, not eligible for us Aid as long as Slobodan milosevic remains in power the US will also work to help countries in the region qualify for World Trade Organization membership and Commerce Secretary of Bill Daley will lead a trade mission for us Business Leaders to the region in the Autumn and finally Clinton will ask Congress to provide another ten million dollars this year to Aid Independent Media trade unions and Democratic opposition in Serbia. So it's the Marshall Plan part to basically nikkei's (00:20:00) looks like you know John maybe I can let me tell you translate that more specifically in perhaps slightly more concrete examples that our listeners can relate to I have spent I have been spending my time with Much of my time with the American Refugee committee a few other ngos European ngos as well in the area and let me give some examples of the types of work. Where is beginning? First of all it began by cleaning up the horror. I have talked with representatives of the American Refugee committee laws are Ozzy was the head of the Macedonian program who together with his colleagues went into Kosovo. You know, what their first assignment was John they cleaned bodies out of Wells drinking Wells where they had been thrown murdered in the war next very very simple units for medical assistance Mobile Medical units going out in Refugee areas where people have encountered psychological trauma, but a whole variety of diseases from the refugee experience in addition longer term social support services Community Development. Services I'm talking about it's very minimal level simply getting an educational system started again beginning at a local Village level. I have community support groups and matters of this sort in the larger sense though when you read off the larger Aid packages and we should add by the way, the European Union was a two days ago pledged to billion in Aid to the region. I get always a little nervous because these larger figures somehow make me very wary that it will be very inefficiently and perhaps often corruptly used. The bottom line we have here is that there are certain political systems in place and it's not just Serbia that makes one question whether they could ever efficiently use that kind of Aid and the truth is when you look at the government's today that were created in Sarajevo or to govern Bosnia. I'd be I have to be honest. It's hopelessly corrupt even when you look at Croatia, which is certainly the most pro-western of the group and tries to be the Pro-european you have a government that's economic policies are frozen in time. It has no significant economic reform in place as of yet. It governs by a certain kind of kleptocracy or economic cronyism and I have deep reservations about funneling money into either Bosnia Croatia at that kind of level. If you don't have a significant political reform to proceeded so as we look at the whole thing, I wonder I mean the price tag is right. It's going to take that kind of massive Aid the problem is I question the means and I really think it has to be done on a much more simple micro economic level granted. This is a slow process and it's a difficult process, but it is I think the only Road in which we can finally find some hope for economically alleviating the area. (00:23:02) It's 11:30 and you are listening to midday on Minnesota Public Radio. I'm John Ray be with Nick hazel. Look at the news is coming up. When you visit the new show at the Tweed (00:23:13) Museum in Duluth. The question arises. Is it art or an indoor garden (00:23:17) putting something like grass in their grass is something that's kind of ragged edged. It's alive. It's sort of contradicts the minimalist vocabulary in a (00:23:26) way. I'm Chris Roberts on the next Word of Mouth a trip through Botanica at the Tweed (00:23:31) word-of-mouth a radio guide to the (00:23:33) Arts tonight at 6:00 and Minnesota Public Radio Canada wfm 91.1 in the Twin Cities. (00:23:40) I'm John Ray be this is midday on Minnesota Public Radio. We'll continue our conversation about stability in the Balkans in just a moment. But let's spend a couple minutes looking at news stories investigators in Atlanta are searching for clues about why a man killed his family went on a shooting rampage at to brokerage firms, then killed himself Lana Mayor Bill Campbell says, we may never know all the reasons for Barton's Rampage, President Clinton says there has to be a new regime and Yugoslavia before the job of rebuilding the Balkans is complete president made that point is he and some other some 40 other leaders open to Summit in Bosnia and rebuilding the shattered region Yugoslav president Slobodan milosevic was not invited to today's meeting in Sarajevo. As republicans in Congress and President Clinton Wrangle over tax cuts. Vice president Gore is ready with his own plan on the second day of a campaign swing in Minnesota court today outlining a plan that would Target tax breaks to help middle-income families pay for retirement long-term health care and adult education after spending most of last night at fundraisers, the Democratic candidate and his aides scrambled to put the finishing touches on the plan. The proposal scene is an effort to lock GOP Presidential hopeful George w-- Bush into a debate on the issue Republican pollster suggested looks more like Gore is lunging for a strategy. It is a hot day across Minnesota. It's going to get hotter in the Twin Cities right now. Mostly sunny 86 degrees. It is sunny and Duluth 81 degrees 82 and st. Cloud 83 in Rochester got some clouds in Fargo where it is 79 degrees at last report probably a bit warmer than that, but the heat index at nine o'clock in the Twin Cities, so it's probably above this now. Was 99 degrees. That's what it felt like and in fact, there's a heat advisory for this afternoon for the Twin Cities. And for the rest of the Southern third of Minnesota just for the Twin Cities hot humid partly. Sunny. Some late afternoon thunderstorms. A severe storm is possible along with locally heavy rain will see a high around 95 degrees, but the heat index what it feels like outside. We'll hit 115 overnight down to 65 scattered showers and thunderstorms some heavy rain may be mostly sunny tomorrow up to about 83 degrees and that should be a very nice break midday on Minnesota Public Radio John Ray be with Nick Hayes Hamline University history Professor, very often our eyes and ears in Europe and in Asia to and we're taking your calls on stability in the Balkans 6512276 thousand or 1-800 to for to 2828 and let's go back to the phone lines. We've got Any on the line from Cambridge? Hi, Jenny. Hello. Thanks for holding on and calling (00:26:28) up. Yes. Well, thank you for taking my call Professor. Who's I am a Hamlin alumni in English major in the days of George vein and Irene's stamp was one of our most outstanding professors. I agree. My question for you is I will first couple of remarks my husband and I have traveled to Ukraine for seven years with a humanitarian Christian organization called Shepherd's foundation. And we have sent Medical Teams educational teams Dental teams agricultural law enforcement, etc. Etc to work on a person-to-person partnership and relational building. And so we feel like we we have gotten a good view over these years of what the people of Ukraine are are living through at this time. I also heard on the news a couple of days ago that now that the United States has rescued the former republics of the Soviet Union now we are Bring on into the Balkan states with a similar similar Aid package. Well in Ukraine, the infrastructure is still crumbling. The government is still correct corrupt. The mafia is in control. People are not being paid. There are no jobs. There is very little food other than what they raised in their kitchen Gardens and I understand the United States is working with Chernobyl with with the nuclear power situation, but I would like to know what indeed has the United States done to assist the people of Ukraine and are we looking at Cooperative cooperation with these former republics? I guess my heart is in Ukraine, of course, a lot of the western business investors have already pulled out because of the mafia and I'm just wondering what is the Hope for these people whose Spirit has been totally downtrodden and destroyed by 70 years of Communism McKay's welders. And just to go back to where I was in my travels before I came to the former Yugoslavia this week and that visiting Russia. First of all, I was not in Ukraine and in general for it's important for all of our listeners to understand when you look at the Republic's that made up what once was the Soviet Union aside from the three Baltic Nations, this is Lithuania Latvia and Estonia, all of the other republics do are in a serious more serious economic State than Russia itself. And Russia itself. It is difficult to say most my gut sense now is that Russia has finally bottomed out that the last crisis of a year ago finally burned out what last strength that was left of a very very corrupt and fake reform system by that. I don't mean I'm optimistic that it's going to reform soon or jump ahead to a real prosperous life soon, but it now has reached a state where it's kind of at a rock-bottom economy in a certain. Natural Market life is increasing and the called underscores what every American businessmen are born. Businessman has been saying about dealing at least with three places, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus and one could probably say the same is true of most of the Central Asian regions. You have incredible corruption. You have no significant economic infrastructure improvements that would allow you to make a reasonable investment long-term to see some kind of recovery and profit from your investment. And finally you have simple crime. We've all heard these stories about organized crime coming out of the former Soviet Union as it was Jenny, I believe pointed out x to the Ukraine is usually considered possibly the worst at least in terms of the most odious types of criminal activities, they're engaged in and I don't know if this is any consolation but as happens perhaps in the history of organized crime in America as well. The good news is That after any period of time these criminals have been active now very strongly for really 10 years, but certainly actively throughout the 90s. They're getting more organized are getting more stable. The small people have been literally killed they've shot each other off. There is a certain stability developing in the system this trip. I was amazed in conversations with Russian businessman as to in a way how systemic everything had become in many respects their dealings with Russian organized crime now has taken on the form of we would call it extortion but it's almost a form of kind of insurance and Consultants ship for managing their business and that is a long answer to say that Ukraine probably will continue to suffer for a long time. I don't think it could suffer any worse than it is now on the other hand. I don't think there's anybody listening out there that has Capital Venture firms or that's eager to pop into this Market or should they nor should any of you hope that your Mutual Pension funds are being invested in that part of the (00:31:19) world. Are you saying as far as the safety goes that it's It's the way it is in some neighborhoods and some big American cities were the mafia holds sway that it's actually safer in those neighborhoods than in some surrounding areas. (00:31:34) No, the system doesn't work. That way John. It's you could say that because the system is very very obvious in part in the streets of major Russian cities, at least and I can't speak for the Ukraine. As I said, I was not there. It's very obvious. I mean you can see the local where he is. So gue kind of manages any given block or District. They make themselves fairly visible. What they're there for is to see that other thugs don't get in there and hustle along the streets. They don't however provide any real security like the legends of living in Little Italy in Manhattan. Manhattan would have was always said to be the most safe neighborhood of all New York. It's not that kind of kind of game because there's too much poverty too much lawlessness, especially in the evenings of walking alone, or Strain through various dark neighborhoods is frankly quite quite a risk these days in Moscow (00:32:29) 21 minutes before noon. You were listening to midday on Minnesota Public Radio John Ray be here with Nick Haze of Hamline University online from Banja Luka Bosnia. We talked a little bit about the refugees who are resettled lling there are considerable conflicts with serbs who are in Kosovo who are fleeing now. Absolutely. Yeah, how many are any serbs going to be left? And and you know why I guess why is the Animus I know why the animosity is so high but you know, how are things how are things working out? (00:33:04) I'm just beginning to try to sort this out. But it's there's no question that the serbs are fleeing Kosovo as rapidly as they can one of our problems. Is that number one? We don't know how many serbs actually were there when the War Began that's because there hasn't been a census taken in the country since 1981 are guesstimate was Six percent of the population were ethnic serbs it were guessing right now. This is based on conversations with the American Refugee committee and a few other ngos that they're probably about 20,000 serves this week of fled the country and it's hard to calculate them because when they flee they either disappear into Serbia itself or in the South the country of Macedonia has a large Serbian population to begin with and they tend to immediately to go to those communities where they have relatives or contacts and they don't figure up an international agencies. But at the same time, I want to emphasize another tragedy another group that has suffered long in Europe's history the Roma or what we would call the gypsies are really the most visible victims of the last few weeks. The gypsy population of Kosovo was generally hated by the albanians for sympathizing inciting they felt with the serbs conversations interviews with albanians convince me that what really happened is after the serbs had burned too many of the Neighborhoods in the course of our Albanian eyes. It was the gypsies who came through and looted them and looted those neighborhoods just yesterday. There was a major burning of a gypsy neighborhood in Pristina right outside one of the buildings where I was staying at night, you can see usually about 0325 fires across the city were Gypsy and if there are any Serb homes left are burning in the end. What are we going to have in Kosovo? We are going to have a completely ethnically cleanse the country that will be over 98% kosovar albanians and the Serb population which regards this as its historic Homeland will be gone. You'll have something that is governed on the street by the Kosovo Liberation Army more or less on officially providing kind of a shadow government for everyday life services and just who gets what and of course in international protectorate which will fumble out somehow under United Nations supervision, but you don't have any real civil government there. (00:35:24) Let's go to Dave on the line from Taylors Falls. You're listening to midday and Dave welcome to the (00:35:28) show. Thank you. I'm just like to comment on the question of the day apparently is should we rebuild this country after we've destroyed it and I agree with a caller before that. It seems to be the American way and it usually works out pretty well. It seems that way develop the infrastructure and you get the country going again. It seems you introduce americanism. So to speak in these countries and I'm just so proud of the United States government, you know, you hear all this hand-wringing about. Oh gosh, we didn't accomplish anything. It's never going to do anything. You know, we have a shot here to actually bring peace to the Balkans. This tremendous power that the United States has wielding for this kind of thing. It's overwhelming to think that anything could do that and and in the last two major conflicts at this country's been in when I say that include the gulf those were both really just causes International thugs trying to just will their influence over their their neighbors and we Came in and just put a stop to it with almost no loss of life on our part but a great commitment. I think it's just wonderful. I think this country should really stand up and be proud of itself and I'm not necessarily a flag waver, but I really get irritated with all these Henry girls who say this is awful United States is Dick. We are a tremendous most powerful force in the world. And right now our government is using it for what I feel is good reasons and I'm not backing our particular government. I just think the Americans have a basic sense of fair play And when they see something like this, they have a tendency to go in and we've been able to do it with air power in the last case which it was unheard of Nikki's any reaction. Well, I do want to I mean emphasize again what John we said quite earlier in our conversation if you want to feel good about being a member of NATO or being an American drive through the streets of Kosovo the children wave at you everyone the Gratitude. All you have to do is walk up. Your embraced your hug tears. There's no question that the albanians of Kosovo feel that the United States has been its Liberator on the other hand. I guess. My only reservation is number one. I agree entirely. Obviously we International Aid has to provide the economic reconstruction. If of Kosovo. Let me emphasize John Kosovo was destroyed. I mean, there are some buildings stand of course, it's not totally destroyed but there's no water system. No electrical system is its destroyed it has to be rebuilt from the ground up and this has to be an international effort and the United States which has gotten the credit for having liberated as the leader of Naval should get the credit for taking the economic leadership to rebuild it my reservation remains. As I'm trying to kind of outline earlier the situation is analogous to Germany. For example at the end of World War II there. We basically put the German government in receivership. We occupied it. We provided military leadership. But basically we restructured the entire government itself along with economic aid through the Marshall Plan the problem with the situation as we look at it in Bosnia or Croatia for that matter you you have no political reform there to parallel The increased desire for economic reform and economic development as for Kosovo. We don't know what the solution will be. Let me remind everyone that still technically it is part of Serbia. Serbia still has sovereignty over the region in reality. It's an international protectorate and how we balance Economic Development with some sort of international protectorate long term remains a bit of a mystery to me because until you find that right combination of Economic Development with proper political Leadership, there will be no long-term stability in the area (00:39:19) 14 minutes before noon. Our phone numbers are 6 512276 thousand. That's the Twin Cities number six five. One two, two seven six thousand or one eight hundred two four to Twenty Eight twenty eight one eight hundred two four two 2828 as we get an update on stability or instability in the Balkans from Nick Hayes Hamline University history Professor, very often our eyes and ears on. Midday. He's in Banja Luka and we encourage you to call us up and let us know what you think about NATO policy about us policy. If I could look at the flip side of what Dave our caller was talking about and feeling proud of America essentially couldn't you also say that it was our now if we started a war to stop the so called Ethnic Cleansing in Kosovo. Our war has a view as you've described it allowed the ethnic albanians to pursue ethnic. Using right (00:40:17) now. Well, yes, you could you certainly would to have to and should we be proud of that that kind of argument because that is in fact what's happened the serves the serbs cannot possibly live in Kosovo with any personal security at all. I did manage to talk to a few NATO units are they weren't American units, but virtually every serve Village it stands every serve the Serb Orthodox Churches. The cemeteries are heavily guarded by NATO right now. It's very visible. But to be honest that's only for example a daytime guard. I mean that at 10 o'clock at night. The soldiers told me they go back to their Barracks. Obviously, they can't protect them indefinitely and the serbs have inferred that the only way for them to physically survive is the finally abandoned Kosovo itself. So ironically we have a completely ethnically cleansed Kosovo and which will have a shadow government. By the KLA, which we may have reasons to be very very dubious about our relationship long-term with that organization as to whether it is really the proper partner for the United States, whether it really wants to pursue a pro-western direction and ultimately let us remind you that the KLA the Kosovo Liberation Army is not an elected body. It's a guerrilla movement born of young Albanian men fighting in a desperate situation (00:41:39) when the ethnic albanians the returning refugees are burning the houses of serbs. Are they meeting out some sort of a rough Justice or are you know, and I'm asking there are they making any attempt to establish the the guilt of the serbs that they're supposedly punishing or are they just lashing out against any (00:42:01) syrup? They they would tell you that they're lashing out very directly against the serbs responsible for the crimes. So so once the danger they knew in the beginning because many of the crimes were carried. In their present interview after interview John, they the same pattern and we heard these stories in the media last spring the serves would those paramilitary units were always accompanied by some local serbs. They would bring the man out separate them execute at least a few in the presence of the village. They were opening openly looting so that many members of the Albanian community community always knew who they were exactly who they were and at a local level is the kind of local serve police the local surf political bosses who are the ones that are being targeted and I well I visited a village it's called sukhov Erica. It's not far from Pristina where one of them are odious absolute tragedies of the war occurred local Serbian police chief and political boss executed 41 women and children in a small Pizzeria. It looked like a scene from the st. Valentine's Day Massacre. I the aftermath of at the bullet shoot shots in Walls at it's absolutely a whore. However, what has happened when the first home to be burned was his he and his accomplices homes signs and graffiti there indicate that this is openly the work of the KLA. It's very deliberate and Direct on the other hand. It's indirect. They want the serbs to know that they're not wanted back there to be terrorized (00:43:35) are the ethnic albanians preserving protecting any serbs that they felt were were fair or supported their side. (00:43:43) Well on the one hand, yes, there are stories of it. We did encounter a group in Pristina that indicated that there the Serb population had alerted them in time at even agreed to save and preserve by negotiation had agreed that they would hide some of their family valuables try to look after their house even occupy it so other serves with not occupy and immediately provided the housing back and provided their goods back on touch. On the other hand in a small village we're doing interviews and they all told the same story a few serbs that we're still there. One of them a young serving man told me he went up on a one of his serve neighbors driving his car and the served neighbors had. Oh, yes. I was saving it for you. Just so you know, the Army paramilitaries wouldn't use it and together we later found in his apartment. His personal Goods is stereo and so forth and hold of that story may sound the same as the first this one was clearly not a case of a Serb trying to save property but obviously had stolen it and now trying to create a cover for why he had his old neighborhoods property Ladder story seems to be more the case what serves our left appear to be desperately trying to cover what they had done to claim. It was other serves but the suspicion and hostility on the albanians is such that if I were them, it's frankly time to get out of Dodge time to get out of there. (00:45:03) Let's go to Bob and Spencer, Iowa. Thanks for calling (00:45:05) Bob. Yeah, you're welcome. Thank you for taking my question. I'm interested in Western multinationals capital investment in euro-asia for the past present future and the professor's comments as to Capital Investments, you know having no return over the near and long-term future in that area and also have a comment on the political situation and you know what those things in the context of the current political economic and social situation in those areas as the professor sees it and I also have a comment on the political situation how we expect in the west that peoples that are three generations removed from brutal serfdom. 4,000 years can have the intellectual and societal and cultural conditions to you know, go to the Pinnacle of Western political civil liberal thought well less than five years and how you have it's not because we're (00:45:56) running out of time. We have like two and a half minutes left. So Nick has do you want to take on multinationals or do you want to take on self-governance your choice? (00:46:03) Well, I guess I'll take on the ladder very quickly and if I inferred from the direction of our callers remarks, of course, it's terribly naive number one to expect that these societies whether it's been the experience of Communism for 40 years in the case of Eastern Europe for over 70 years in the case of Russia or in the case of Russia overall for five centuries of a very underdeveloped semi-feudal society that could suddenly spring ahead and develop our concept of pluralism and Civil Society. There's a second element to a to job. The question is really politically must they imitate exactly the models of the United States in the west and the answer is no I am not suggesting in any of these remarks that I expect them to come like little America's out of there but I am suggesting that for the most part the experience of this world to the last 10 years has borne out here for years for much of the worst of what could come in the political aftermath and I guess to drive some consolation. I think the worst is burned itself out. It is Ron it's inevitable course. I'm not saying it's time for the best but we have seen through the tremendous pain of the last ten years a chance now that probably a little more sober approach will be in place so that whatever from Belgrade to Moscow slowly you'll see a more constructive Society in one more compatible with global Community begin to emerge and ultimately one that can provide a better social and economic well-being for the people of that (00:47:32) area in case we have 30 seconds left where you headed (00:47:35) next tomorrow. I'm going to Canaan which is the center of what was the Croatian Serbian population some 250,000 of them were expulsed. I'm going to be trying to interview that a handful of serbs who have tried to return to the town and face the hostility of much of the Croatian government and in turn various Croatian refugees from Bosnia who have settled in the former serve homes to try to get a sense of where they think their future. It's in the 21st century will lie. (00:48:06) Well, good luck. And thanks for your time today. (00:48:08) Thank you. John. (00:48:09) Nick Hayes, Hamline University history Professor on the line from Banja Luka. I'm Ray Suarez. Is it just a matter of time before we go the way of the dinosaurs joined guest host Brooke Gladstone on Science Friday for a close look at asteroids and what scientists are doing to track those (00:48:27) chunks of orbiting Rubble. What are the risks (00:48:30) of an asteroids smashing into the Earth and can scientists do a better job of (00:48:34) explaining the risk plus the skinny on (00:48:37) fat Let's Talk of the Nation from NPR News Talk of the Nation one, two, three weekday afternoons on Minnesota Public Radio. Here's Garrison.

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