(00:00:10) Good morning. Welcome to midday on Minnesota Public Radio. I'm Gary eichten. Glad you could join us. Well, as you heard the US Senate is nearing the end of its deliberations on whether to remove President Clinton from Office a vote on the articles of impeachment may come later this afternoon at the latest were expecting a vote by tomorrow and we'll have live coverage of the Senate vote when it occurs. We should also note that we're planning some special programming after the vote. So do stay tuned here to Minnesota Public Radio. Meanwhile this first our midday, we're going to focus on how this process has affected the Congress whether the wounds will heal and life will return to normal or whether the partisan divisions that Mark the impeachment debate will have some long-term impact on what Congress and the White House can accomplish joining us from Washington to discuss these issues is Minnesota native and nationally. Political analyst Norman Ornstein strong and Steen is a congressional analyst with the American Enterprise Institute. He's the co-author of a book titled Congress the press and the public and we invite you to join our conversation. Give us a call. Our Twin City area number is 6512276 thousand 6512276 thousand outside the Twin Cities 1-800 to for to to 8286512276 thousand or 1-800 to for 208 or guess this our political analyst Norman Ornstein morning, sir. Good morning. Glad you could join us. (00:01:34) I'm delighted deny it glad that you framed the introduction by first mentioning Minnesota native (00:01:39) and your priority said Gary and you miss that miss that weather don't you? (00:01:45) Oh, especially this time of the year. Actually I came back for the for the first playoff game the successful playoff game and when I got to the airport it was it was only I think 17 below (00:02:00) Uh-huh. So why didn't you come back for the second one? That's what I want. (00:02:03) I had a foreboding. (00:02:06) Well, you're very well connected. Of course in Washington. What have you been hearing about these clothes deliberations of anything. They've been pretty civil a good discussion or just some speechifying and little (00:02:18) the combination of those things civil a lot of speechifying a small amount of give and take it has mostly been up to this point about sixty Senators taking their 15 minutes to justify what they're doing and probably to hone their speeches. It's almost like a New Haven try out a now behind closed doors for you know, what they'll say to justify their actions to their constituents and others afterwards, but I haven't heard a hint from anybody that this is the kind of jury deliberation that might change some Minds nobody's Mine is being changed. There are still some mines that are not firmly made up Republican Minds that is in terms of how they're going to vote on at least one of these articles. What (00:03:11) is your sense? So in general, I'm sure there are individual exceptions to this but in general has the Senate approach this in a in a serious conscientious. I'm going to look at all the evidence kind of way or are they pretty well dug in and nothing much was going to change this one way or the other. (00:03:31) Well, I think you'd have to say that when they started the odds of convincing two-thirds of the Senate to convict and remove the president from Office were slim. Most of the members had a pretty good sense from everything that had emerged beforehand of what they were going to do. But at the same time they weren't, you know, it wasn't just oh, let's just make this a sham and and resolve it. When they got into it and remember at the beginning several Republicans, you know wanted to avoid a long trial wanted to avoid more than just the presentations by the managers and the president's lawyers. But even once they got into it partly because of the rules partly because of the gravity of the situation most of the Senators did sit at their desks silently listening to the evidence. And what I think is interesting about this Gary is that when the house managers made their initial presentation, it was quite impressive to the people listening the Senators listening for the first time and had the potential for completely changing the dynamic until the president's lawyers made their presentation and in part because the house managers had made some miscalculations the first one to speak James sensenbrenner of Wisconsin made some Miss statements whether they were deliberate or not is completely different. That combined with what was some fast and loose use of evidence by some of the other managers trying to prove the pattern in the obstruction of justice case gave the president's lawyers multiple opportunities to knock down some elements of the case and frankly after the first two sets of presentations the opening arguments by the president's lawyers the opening arguments by the managers the opening arguments by the president's lawyers that I think was the critical moment in this case. Once that was over it was clear that unless there was some startling new revelation that not only were you going to have all the Democrats voting to acquit but you had a real question about whether you would have even a majority much less the two-thirds of voting to convict and that of course is the way the dynamic is played out (00:05:54) since I think it is fair to say that this trial An impeachment in the house preceding it has not despite all of the media attempts to cast this in Grand historical terms hasn't really captured the attention of the public and certainly not in any Grand historical sense in Washington. Is it different? I mean is there a sense of history involved in this (00:06:22) Washington has been grabbed more than the rest of the country. It's become I think a topic of conversation here every day in a way that it hasn't in the rest of the country not after the initial moments and you know the initial moments when the Chief Justice walked into the Senate chamber when the discussion was there that the the Senate convenes as a quart of impeachment. It was an awesome moment in Washington as it began to play out though it lost that historical element about it to a considerable degree. It moved into something that obviously is extremely unusual. Will that we know will be in history, but it was much more of a focus on the political Dynamic and frankly knowing at this early stage what the outcome would be and knowing that most of the charges revolved around Petty and sorted acts even if the allegations of obstruction of justice perjury are you know elevated charges but discussion the acts themselves weren't, you know, involving great matters of State there are things that really did get to the core of whether the form of government was under challenge. It took away a lot from that historical Aura and people have paid attention because they're junkies people have paid attention because of course a good part of Washington conversation is driven by the media here and they have a lot at stake here in some ways more at stake than anybody else. And having this go on and because of course it's made a tremendous difference in the viewership and readership of many of the publication's but people have been going through the motions to (00:08:09) Norman Ornstein is with us. He's a congressional analyst with the American Enterprise Institute and he's joined us from Washington to they talk a little bit about what happens after the impeachment process comes to to a close possibly yet today more likely tomorrow now according to Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, you'd like to join our conversation. Give us a call six five. One two, two seven six thousand 6512276 thousand outside the Twin Cities one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight. And before we get to our first caller here, let me ask you one other question will everybody just kiss and make up when this is done. (00:08:49) No, there will be certainly some major efforts to kiss and make up. It appears very very likely that as soon as the vote is taken the president will make us It'll be a short statement. It will include some elements of Contrition. It will also basically say it's time for us now Democrats and Republicans to get to work on the issues that the people care about and I would guess that the president will call for a meeting maybe even a summit kind of meeting with Congressional leaders including the Republican leaders. There will be a serious effort there to kiss and make up we've already heard the speaker Denny hastert talk about how he knows that they must work with the president of the United States and in a cordial way, but let's face it when something like this happens and it'll be particularly true. If we end up with 50 one or more Senators voting to acquit. There will be an awful lot of finger pointing and in a good deal of recrimination afterwards a good part of it frankly is going to occur within Republican ranks. It will be house managers and other house members blaming Senate Republicans, it'll be Senate Republicans saying, you know, they're the ones the house managers who got us into this mess. It'll be conservatives asking the equivalent of who lost China and then we'll see some recriminations that will continue with in the House of Representatives where the atmosphere between Democrats and Republicans and a very very closely divided house were difficult enough before are poisonous after the impeachment process was handled as it was with the such a strong partisan (00:10:29) divide. So all the fine words we've heard are mostly words and not any indication that everybody's on the same page (00:10:36) again. Well, they're not going to be on the same page again, but it's also important to remember that coming out of this the republicans in Congress have an enormously strong interest in starting to move legislative product and develop a record of accomplishment Bill Clinton has a comparable interest for reasons of changing his legacy. So they They have a lot in terms of their goals post impeachment in common. It'll be difficult enough to achieve those would have been even without impeachment given the partisan Dynamic and close divisions in both houses of Congress. Both houses, really up for grabs next November and an open presidential contest, but it's still difficult, but they're going to have some real incentive to try and work together. (00:11:25) But you know, maybe you can shed some light on this just from a purely personal point of view. I would think if I were President Clinton having listened to some of the things that were said about me over the last few months, I would be so angry that that I couldn't deal with these people and vice versa. If I had been the one saying those things and believing that this guy is the bomb that he's been portrayed to be I wouldn't want anything to do with (00:11:57) him. This is going to be a Field test of personal discipline here in a whole host of ways. I was thinking this morning exactly what you said as I watched the videotape of Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana and who's one of the most senior Republicans senior members of Congress very very highly respected a Statesman one of the most significant figures in foreign policy and basically saying that he was going to vote for both articles of impeachment and vote for removal of a president. Not just because he thinks the president is guilty but because he thinks that the president is completely untrustworthy and every area well, we're going to segue out of this and whether it is in areas like Bosnia or dismantling the nuclear forces or protecting against nuclear disaster with the former Soviet Union, which is becoming another hot issue much less the whole range of other policy areas where the Senator Lugar who's the chairman of the agriculture committee? Besides being important to foreign policy will have to deal with the president on a face-to-face basis. It's going to be hard the president will hear those words and Senator Lugar will look at the president and feel the way he does but you know, basically they will work together and I suspect a lot of the venting and there will be venting will occur largely in private. But you have a bunch of people here who are at least pragmatic enough to in the end let their own self-interest which is basically and longer-term self-interest swallowing hard and working together with people for whom you have a very unhappy feelings went out over the short-term emotions (00:13:49) political analyst Norman Ornstein is our guest this our joining us from Washington. If you'd like to join our conversation, six, five, one two, two seven six thousand outside the Twin Cities one eight hundred two four two two. A28 and if you just tuned in we're still not sure when the Senate will come out from behind it's closed doors and actually take the vote on the articles of impeachment could be later this afternoon. But Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott was indicating that more likely that vote will come tomorrow Dave your comment, please. (00:14:19) Yeah, it seems like the people in Washington inside the Beltway kind of have an attention deficit disorder. They can only pay attention to what's immediately in front of them. I know a lot of people myself of course included that are just fed up with the way the Republican party and the Democrats have handled the themselves the last four years a lot of obstructionism a both sides mostly on the Republican side. A lot of people were see the impeachment thing is simply the last straw in a series of behavior has been going on for the last two terms are last six years, and I know Bobby would just do not want to see this continue and if it does continue in any way they're going Very vindictive about it and when it comes to voting ends in the year 2000 and I'd like to get professor and scenes beliefs about that or feelings about that. You know, what's it's going to be really interesting here to see first of all how long memories will be about these events and for whom you know, our conventional wisdom tells us that it's an eternity between now and the next election and the average voter will have a hundred other things that will supersede impeachment. I'm not sure that that's going to be true at all for activists voters on either side and I think that this the impeachment process has energized Democratic party activists in a way that nothing has maybe since Vietnam and it's kind of interesting to some ways ironic because an awful lot of those activists don't have a whole lot of use for Bill Clinton. Otherwise, they think he sold them out and policy areas like welfare, but this is really Cause them to rally and I suspect we'll see a surge in turn out as a result of that. One of the things that will be interesting here is whether conservatives are outraged Enough by the outcome here and persist as they undoubtedly will in their deep-seated belief that Bill Clinton's an evil guy and we'll decide that they need to keep moving forward with this the same as issue was true of Ken Starr who's clearly going to doggedly move forward and all fronts that he can to try to nail Bill Clinton yet again, and if that happens and we see all kinds, you know, Jerry Falwell and other conservatives who were pushing out the videotape that suggested that Bill Clinton was a murderer and Drug Runner will join with others to keep pushing and digging about all these various Jane Doe's and Kathleen Willey and whatever else might come up and provoked yet another backlash and very possibly if that happens you're going to see all kinds of It's saying okay Larry Flynt come back out. Again. That's one outcome here. That is an unfortunate and real possibility and could keep this downward spiral of what Clinton rightly calls the politics of personal destruction moving downward for the next couple of (00:17:17) years. You mentioned Larry Flynt have we heard the last of him from him? I should say or could we expect expel? You know, he had this he was he was claiming to have all this information about indiscretions Congressional indiscretions, and and it just sort of had disappeared and people were taking him seriously and all of that. What what is he going to be a player? (00:17:46) Well, we don't know is the answer he is said he's announced that he will have other announcements and then he's announced that he was going to hold back on those other announcements until he sees how the impeachment The business goes because he's not just in the business of outing people. It has to have a purpose behind it. You know, he said I think almost a direct quote. I'm a smut Peddler but I'm an honest smut Peddler but I don't know what he's got or what will emerge what I think will happen here is that if if this is not the last chapter in the move to prove that Bill Clinton is evil then we're going to see not perhaps not Larry Flynt, perhaps Larry Flynt, but certainly others move forward to try and make it Tit for Tat and you know, we'll see probably at the same time another unfortunate element of this. We've got lots of particularly cable Outlets along with a lot of print organizations that have become Tabloid eyes who depend on having Scandal stories? And so they'll be ready markets for any rumor or hint or charge of Scandal out there. No matter who it involves in public life. (00:19:13) Does the Congress have the stomach to take this up again in some other form? (00:19:20) Not unless it seems to me the only way it could possibly happen again would be if there were something devastating out there that would build broad bipartisan support and that is frankly not likely (00:19:32) selling secrets to the ruskies or something like that even worse wreck your question, (00:19:38) please yeah a few things. First of all, I think that this whole thing starting with the house impeachment proceeding is really just the Republicans doing it again abusing government to forward their very Ultra conservative programs. It's really much the same way that Nixon abused government Government to go after the Democrats and was caught at it. I think we're basically kind of seeing the same thing. I think it's very encouraging that some level-headed Senate Republicans like chafee and even Arlen Specter have come out and said all those Spectra says he's just not going to he's going to basically not vote one way or the other but chaffee's going to vote against both articles. I think that it's encouraging that there is some semblance of intelligence in the Republican Party left. You mentioned Jerry Falwell and I think that you know, the average listener should realize that Jerry Falwell forward such paranoid ideation such as that these little toys called Teletubbies are part of a gay program to kind of infiltrate youngsters, or I don't know if you heard that yesterday, but apparently is a purple Teletubby that has a triangle on the top of its head and Jerry falwell's organization came out. And said that this was objective evidence of the fact that the Teletubbies were trying to put the seeds of Gay Culture Etc into our young children. These people will not stop. You know, they really need to be harnessed in (00:21:16) furthermore. Okay, Rick. Do you think it's reasonable Norm to characterize what we've been watching as a culture war and now that's a term that's been bandied about a theory that's been promulgated a lot last year is that an (00:21:31) accurate description of what's been going on? It's more complicated than that. I think there are elements of a culture War here in the sense that a good part of the animosity towards Bill Clinton and it's a deep-seated animosity. The number of people who really hate him is quite remarkable and not just over on the Bedrock, right? But a good part of it is a cultural visceral reaction. I think there are a lot of people Against the 60s against what they see as a kind of moral relativism much of it flowing from not just his his sexual behavior, but the draft and the anti war effort and a lot of those kinds of things some of it has been framed in a broader cultural terms. For example, the Republican whip in the house who was instrumental in having the house move in December to impeach Bill Clinton said that this was a contest between relativistic and absolute standards lying is lying. What makes it complicated is that now we have fairly strong evidence that Tom DeLay himself five years ago lied in a civil lawsuit in a deposition and either he lied about his involvement with a company in which he was asked whether he was a off. Sir, or any denied added or he lied in his in the forms, he had to fill out in the house in terms of his outside activities where simultaneously he was saying he was the chief executive. So, you know what that suggests is that it's it's a culture War when you're fighting against the other guy, you know, hypocrisy is there on both sides and frankly. I have little doubt that if we'd had the situation is reversed and it was a Republican president up and charged with these various things by an independent counsel. You have all kinds of Democrats talking about how you know perjury is perjury lying is lying obstruction is obstruction and you'd have an awful lot of Republicans taking the other side. So it's hard to sort out which part of this is genuine which part of it is. Driven by politics and they're very much intertwined and yet with all of that. It's also significant to remember that Bill Clinton did do some things that are representing. 'full (00:24:13) Norman Ornstein is with us. He's a congressional analyst with the American Enterprise Institute joining us from Washington this hour to talk a little bit about what happens after the vote is announced on those articles of impeachment what we can expect in terms of congressional action the rest of this year the next couple of years what's going to happen in the world of politics whether all the wounds will be healed whether everybody will be able to get along and get something accomplished or whether the fighting will continue six five. One two, two seven six thousand is our Twin City area number six, five. One two, two seven six thousand outside the Twin Cities one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight and we'll get to some more callers just a couple of minutes. (00:24:59) Minnesota Public Radio provides a unique service that you can't get anywhere else not only does it provide you with in depth news and information. It's an independent service paid for by voluntary support from us nurse. The strength of Minnesota Public Radio is the strength of its members join this powerful group of people who believe in radio that matters send in your membership today or call us right now. The number is 1-800-218-4243. (00:25:27) Ming is made possible in part by The Advocates of Minnesota Public Radio contributors include the McKnight Foundation working to strengthen families and communities over the noon hour. Today. We're going to take a look at the profile of learning here in the state of Minnesota. The Minnesota house is expected to vote this afternoon to scrap the program. It was set up as a way to improve education in Minnesota. A lot of people have been upset about the program itself and or the way it's been implemented and will try to find out more about what Precisely the profile of learning and what might replace it that's coming up over the noon hour time now for some news headlines. Here's Eric Janssen Eric. Good morning. Iraq says, it's scored a hit on an Allied plane. But the Pentagon says that's not true us officials. Say American jets fired on several Iraqi military installations today in the northern no-fly zone They report all us Pilots safe Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott says a vote on the president's impeachment trial isn't likely today before Senators went behind closed doors this morning for a third day of deliberations lot said more than three. Dozen Senators had yet to make their speeches about whether to convict or acquit. The White House says President Clinton meanwhile does not plan to seek revenge against house impeachment managers by targeting Republicans in the 2000 elections. The New York Times had reported Clinton was Furious about his impeachment and planned an all-out offensive another frustrating day for travelers on American Airlines Pilots are still calling in sick despite a judge's order yesterday that they return to work. The dispute has forced American to counsel more than 2,500 flights since Saturday. In Regional news, Minnesota attorney general Mike hatches plan to help homeowners is drawing opposition from the banking industry hatch proposes that lenders pay interest on the escrow accounts of homeowners. He also wants to make it easier to cancel private mortgage insurance and abolish penalties for pain mortgages early, but the Executive Vice President of the Minnesota Mortgage Bankers Association says the Attorney General's bill would not help more minnesotans buy homes. He says Minnesota's home ownership rate of 72 percent is already the second highest in the nation northern states Powers asking for a state permit to Market coal. Ash as an agricultural fertilizer - would be used as a lining agent for crops grown in central. Minnesota is highly acidic soil. The mpca will take public comment on the proposal until March 5th. Well temperatures are continuing to drop in a whether a winter weather and snow advisory continues through this evening in parts of Minnesota. Currently. We have partly sunny skies and Fargo 16° International Falls light snow in 14 degrees in Duluth freezing rain 21 degrees and in the Twin Cities right now. In drizzle 25 degrees. That's the latest from the minute from the Minnesota Public Radio Newsroom. I'm Eric Janson. All right, thank you Eric. It is about 26 minutes. Now before new Norman Ornstein joins us from Washington Congressional analyst with the American Enterprise Institute. We're talking about what happens in Washington in the Congress after today's or tomorrow's vote on those articles of impeachment again, if you'd like to join our conversations 6512276 thousand or one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight you were saying earlier that the divisions in the house certainly are still there that the wounds haven't all healed. What about the Senate it seems from the outside like things have been a good deal more civil in the (00:28:42) Senate. Yeah. They have been more civil in the Senate. It's partly just the nature of the Senate. The house is a body where first of all most of the members don't know the other members are 435 of them. It's much easier. Demonize people if you don't spend a lot of time face to face with them the house went for 40 years 40 consecutive years without a change in majority status and during that period of time basically you had tremendous frustration is building up among Republicans in the minority a lot of smugness and arrogance among Democrats in the majority and then it abruptly flip-flopped in 1994 when that happened you you had no more than a couple of Democrats would ever been in the minority before no Republicans who'd ever been in the majority except for a couple of switch parties, and now you've got four and a half years of simmering resentment on the part of the Democrats who feel that they've been mistreated much worse than they ever mistreated the Republicans and Republicans sort of in some ways Riding High but also trying very carefully to protect a very small majority. The leaders have been particularly partisan in the ideological divisions are much much greater between the party. There's a gulf between the parties compared to what we had. 10 20 30 years ago in the Senate they had a party ship for six years in the eighties every Senator because they're only a hundred of them has a lot of power to begin with democrat or republican. You can't do anything in the Senate without 60 votes and of course in the case of impeachment 67. That means nothing can be done in a strictly partisan way. So and of course you also have Senators listening to Statewide polls rather than to narrow District opinion, which can often be very much tilted towards one side or the other so you have a different attitude and a different Dynamic there. They knew from the beginning that they better try and make this bipartisan or it could be a disaster across the board and there's a general level of Civility there that we haven't seen in the house and I think they will emerge just fine, but it doesn't take away from another reality. It still takes 60 votes basically to make anything happen in the Senate and that's not going to be easy to do whether there's impeachment or (00:30:57) not. Did you what did you hear around town and talking with members of the Senate were they? I don't want to use the word pleased here and I don't want to use the word upset something in between when the house actually voted to impeach the president and send the case to the Senate. What how what was their reaction to (00:31:19) that? I could tell you that there were very few Senators who were happy with that outcome. Most the reaction of many. If not most in the Senate. This is including among the Republicans was a great unhappiness that this had happened and that they had to take it on that unhappiness. Let me say privately among the Republicans has grown over the last few weeks. A lot of private comments made about denigrating comments about the house managers. What do they handed us, you know, this case is not a very strong case. There's of course the house managers and private or even more escaping about their Senate colleagues. They would have preferred not to do this and not only in their own self-interest, but I think one of the interesting things that happens here and I alluded to it a minute or two ago. Can I ask why did the house do this in the face of what was a clear expression as clear as we've had in anything of public opinion saying don't do it. Of course the answer and part is that for house members they listen to the voters in their own districts the of the 435 house districts three quarters or more really much more are pretty much safe for one party and what they were hearing what the majority Republicans were hearing back in their own districts is very different from what the national polls were showing senators are more attuned to those National surveys and they saw this as something that was quixotic and unpopular and potentially deeply destructive for republicans and when they got it, of course, we solve several Republicans including slaves. Gorton who now is going to vote for one article of impeachment senator from Washington immediately trying to figure out how to move past this quickly and short-circuited basically believing that the Senate Republicans could easily get dragged down with the house managers, but what they discovered fairly quickly the Republicans was that if they just gave the back of their hand to the house managers it would affect all Republicans as well that they had to give some leeway to those managers to let them save face to let them make a presentation at least or they would all be in bigger trouble. So striking that balance has been their goal. But you know, there's plenty of internal Republican resentment and they'll be some internecine Warfare before we're (00:33:54) done. Sue your question, please (00:33:56) hi. Well, I guess I had kind of a comment to about I want to thank you for the comments that you've been making and I think What's been going on with the impeachment kind of proves that the two-party system is just corrupt Beyond repair and you know going by opinion polls. I don't know who's checking the veracity of these poles and I think people will remember I know I'm going to make a point of remembering who didn't vote for impeachment because it shows that either they can't tell the difference between right and wrong when they see it or they're as corrupt as Clinton is and in either case, they should not be in office either and I think people are going to remember and I think what happened in the governor's race in Minnesota has should tell people a little bit about what happens when the Republicans and the Democrats are so caught up in politics that they can't do. What's right and what's wrong and and just Decent people and speak the truth. Well, there's certainly one area that I think the the colors hit on that's a particularly important one this Dynamic is not likely to leave either party particularly better off. It is going to take a substantial number of Voters who are already turned off to politics generally and probably leave them even less interested in what's going on. Now. Is that going to lead to a much more substantial third-party movement to a lot more Jesse Ventura's. I'm a little skeptical of that at least as of now in part because of course the same time most voters are feeling very good about themselves in the country. We're still in a situation where an astonishing an unprecedented 60 percent of Americans think that the economy is the best in their lifetimes. So if there's a desire for change, it's probably not going to be a radical one at this moment, but the parties both find themselves whipsawed. Activists basis who demand tough and pure action. Would of course the opposite action and voters in the middle who just want him to get away from this and move back to what matters for their lives and the feelings and the case of Bill Clinton are very very high. The he generates a remarkable amount of emotion here (00:36:33) Richard your comment please (00:36:35) a good morning and thank you for taking my call. I've been a big fan of Norm Ornstein since I heard him and I think a 1992 National Press Club speech on conservatives and George Bush that's quite possible and my question to you sir. If you were handicapping right now and picking the Republican ticket for mm who would be the candidates most difficult president vice president for the Democrats to be thank you. I would say the following that George w-- Bush is untested in National politics. Even though he's been around it for a good portion of his life. But my guess is that if Bush managed to navigate himself through this process and win the nomination, he would be a formidable candidate because he's not going to be seen as threatening to anybody. He's going to be seen as a competent executive and if people want a change at that point and it's quite possible, you could see a dynamic by the year 2000 where people decide they want enough of a change that they'll bring in a Republican president and a democratic Congress. That's not an unlikely or an outlandish outcome here. He would be a nonthreatening candidate and of course what a lot of people in Washington are talking about although recognize that those in Washington don't have a lot to do with who gets nominated is the George W. Bush Elizabeth Dole ticket, which would be quite a striking ticket in a host of ways and it's still some ways causes me to giggle Because you'd have a Republican party saying it's time for a change and nominating Bush Dole. Now the other candidate I'd keep an eye on who I think will be very tough for Democrats is John McCain a conservative reformer and a genuine hero as (00:38:31) he pure enough though to (00:38:33) well we well but it's not clear that voters the backlash is going to lead to a call for Purity. It may lead to a call for character and you can have character without being pure and McCain is a genuine hero who has shown enormous courage in the past anybody who follows or has read the accounts of his five and a half years in a PO W Camp. There's a just a stunning book called The Nightingale Song by Bob Tim Berg that has a couple of chapters on this that are just incredibly Moving Will Come Away with great admiration for him he of course has courageously and against the tide within his own party LED efforts for campaign Finance reform and on the tobacco issue taken a lot of flack Fern. He's very conservative. He's pro-life extremely conservative on fiscal matters and informed policy. But as a reformer, he would have some appeal and if it's not a great likelihood that he can win a nomination just given the nature of the of the nominating process in the Republican party, but those are candidates who I think would make an Al Gore more than a little (00:39:53) nervous. Mmm. Let's get at least one more caller on here Joan. Go ahead. (00:39:59) Hello. Good morning. Mr. Arnstein. I wanted to have your view or your opinion on something that I rarely hear anyone speak about but as an African-American, I'm very much aware of I happen to be a professional so is my husband. So I With my family ninety percent of African-Americans have been very supportive of the president throughout all of us and I think part of what you alluded to when you said cultural differences. I think that's also part of it. This is a man who has a private secretary who was an African American a man who has a best friend who was an African American he is threatening in so many ways, but the one way that nobody ever Rob's refer to is that he is so comfortable with people of other races and that is something that I see as of course a very good thing about him, but there are those who are heavily into not denial and they don't like to say that there are qualities about this man that are threatening to them because it's going to be America of another 25 or 50 years. I think you're absolutely right and I would add another another Factor here that helps to explain the extraordinary level of support and depth of support among the African-American members of Congress for Bill Clinton. And remember these are people who took him on and the I'm Bill took him on on the welfare package, but have been his strongest supporters in this area. And I think the other reason is this we have had a pattern over many years where black public officials who reach levels of prominence get investigated or get charged with crimes or get forced out of office or all of the above and it's a very long list that includes of course the most recent Being Mike Espy it was Ron Brown. It was the mayor of Birmingham, Alabama Richard Harrington. It was Bill Gray who had charges levied against him. We had a member of Congress from Missouri who was whose son is replaced him who was indicted and brought to trial and that acquitted a couple of years ago. And the list goes on and I think there is a widespread belief in the African-American political community that if you become particularly prominent as an African-American, you're likely to be targeted here and that Bill Clinton has the same kind of experience. There's an identification there with him that's caused a lot of the political figures and I suspect a lot of the community at large the African-American community at large to Rally around Bill Clinton, even though there are some policy areas where they have significant (00:42:47) disagreement basis for that belief or (00:42:51) paranoia look there, you know, there are certainly some instances where the charges were accurate charges, but when you see cases like SP where he was acquitted by the jury and where he was hounded for years over You know what clearly were ethical lapses, but were relatively small-scale ones when you see examples like Harold Ford whom I mentioned earlier the congressman from Missouri who went through years of investigation and then was acquitted when you see Bill Gray who basically had all kinds of anonymous charges raised against him when he became the Democrats whip in the house and ultimately he left the house and there was nothing there, you know, it's not that there are there are there are clearly some instances where the charges were absolutely On Target and accurate but the idea that that there's a selective prosecution here or attempt to get people is not entirely outlandish. (00:43:56) Well, I wish we had a lot more time but let me run a couple of things by here before we have to quit altogether a first of all the media the media is performance here as obviously the it came in for some some really nasty criticism in the way it handled the Lewinsky thing initially as the media managed to reclaim its (00:44:28) its role here or I have a few good things to say about the me here Gary, you know, I'm I'm frankly dismayed by an awful lot of what I see and what I have seen for a few years the there's there's less and less distinction between so-called tabloid papers like the National Enquirer or the globe or the star and the more popular broad-based tabloids, like the New York Post and now all the other papers like the New York Times The Washington Post The Wall Street Journal the news magazines and now the tremendous rise of these cable Outlets who hungering for readers and viewers in a changing media world have turned increasingly to focus on stories of Scandal crowding out everything else and as they've turned to focus on stories of Scandal any kinds of safeguards against reporting false stories putting rumors out there without having them checked out attacking people going into this kind of discourse on which has become prominent on television of having one person from one end of the spectrum screaming at another person from the other end of the spectrum. That's become the common coin and when this is over you're going to see a lot of Shakedown, I mean MSNBC will see its ratings plummeted yet. Again, CNN's ratings will suffer some as well some of the papers and news magazines undoubtedly will have their newsstand sales drop, but I think what we will see is a redoubled effort to Another Scandal to try and Jen it up again. And you know, that was true. Of course with the obsession with OJ. It's true with this case. It was true before that with the reporting on John Tower and Bob bork and you get an Unholy alliance between the prosecutors the political partisans the ideologues and the press in these cases. That is an echo chamber Mutual reinforcing society that has nothing good in it for the crew the country as a whole and I'm afraid the Press at minimum is an unindicted co-conspirator in all of (00:46:45) this some Rumblings out here that Senator Rod grams might be in trouble. What are the pros and Washington saying terms of re-election. (00:46:54) Look let's face it at this stage, which is an early stage. You've got a list of vulnerable seats and Rob grams is going to be at or near the top of that list. He would have been anyhow, Minnesota is not a naturally Republican state. It's certainly not a naturally Bedrock Conservative Republican state. He won in 1994 which happened to be a year of a tidal wave for Republicans. So he would be on a list along with people like Rick Santorum and Pennsylvania, maybe Spencer Abraham and Michigan, excuse me regardless and it'll be interesting to see how the impeachment Dynamic plays into that but so much of what happens in the year 2000 is not only far away but depends especially in Senate races on who the opponent is and what kind of nominating process it takes to get there. And in this instance after post Jesse Ventura, whether there's more than one opponent in a three-way race that you know, we have to be very tentative with our (00:47:55) conclusions. Thanks a lot for joining us, by the way. Congratulations. And so on being the campaign manager and Al franken's book, I suppose that just sets the stage for a real campaign manager. (00:48:06) Well, I was but not only the campaign manager in the book but also the chief of staff and the Very short-lived White House and ultimately in the book ended up in jail. So I'll take your congratulations with a slight caveat. Thanks a lot. Hilarious book by the way. (00:48:23) Okay Norman Ornstein Congressional analyst with the American Enterprise Institute joining us from Washington, Washington in this first hour of (00:48:30) midday. I'm Ray Suarez. The federal budget is sort of balanced welfare rolls are down. The administration claims fewer employees are on federal payrolls. President Clinton says the era of big government is over, but is it an exactly what is big government? Anyway, join me for a look at government spending on the next Talk of the Nation from NPR news. (00:49:00) five minutes before noon time for The Writer's Almanac