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WILLIAM WILCOXEN: And it appears State Senator Florian Chmielewski will not testify before a special State Senate Committee on unauthorized use of his legislative telephone account. Chmielewski has reportedly refused to appear before the Senate Ethics Panel, arguing the subcommittee has no jurisdiction over his case.

The forecast calls for more rain in southeastern Minnesota, partly sunny skies in northern and western Minnesota. Highs from around 70 in the Arrowhead, to the lower 80s in Fargo-Moorhead. In the Twin Cities, occasional showers, a few thunderstorms possible. High today around 70.

Currently in Duluth, it's cloudy and 56. In Rochester, fog and 64. And in the Twin Cities, cloudy skies, 65 degrees.

That's news from Minnesota Public Radio. I'm William Wilcoxen.

GARY EICHTEN: Six minutes now past 12:00.

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GARY EICHTEN: And we do hope to hear from you. Good afternoon. Six minutes now past 12:00, and this is Midday on Minnesota Public Radio. I'm Gary Eichten.

Well, as you heard, the results are pretty much complete now from yesterday's presidential election in Russia. 98% of the votes are in, and Boris Yeltsin, the incumbent Russian president, was leading his Communist challenger, Gennady Zyuganov, about 35% to about 32% in the voting yesterday. Now, neither man came close to the majority needed, so there's going to be a runoff election early next month.

The election in Russia has been followed very, very closely, as you might expect, all around the world, for a whole lot of reasons, not the least of which is that Russia remains one of the world's preeminent powers. And joining us today from Moscow, to discuss the election and what happens next in Russia, is Hamline University History Professor and Russian expert Nick Hayes.

We'd also invite you to join our conversation today. If you've got some questions for Nick about the election, give us a call-- 227-6000 is our Twin City area number. 227-6000. Outside the Twin City area, you can reach us toll-free at 1-800-242-2828. 227-6000 or 1-800-242-2828-- as we talk with Hamline University History Professor Nick Hayes about the Russian election.

Hello, Nick.

NICK HAYES: Hello, Gary.

GARY EICHTEN: Is it-- What is it, evening, I suppose, in Moscow?

NICK HAYES: Yeah, it's a little-- a little after 9:00 here. The sun's still out. We're here in the northern latitudes. It's been a beautiful day in Moscow.

GARY EICHTEN: Well--

NICK HAYES: Disturbances didn't happen.

GARY EICHTEN: No disturbances?

NICK HAYES: No. Well, there was all sorts of fears over the weekend. Rumors of various terrorist actions, provocations, and that the communists, if they did not win, might stage, oh, some kind of demonstrations or provocative acts. But the point of fact today has been exceptionally pleasant and calm.

GARY EICHTEN: All in all, it sounds like the election went pretty much as the pollsters expected.

NICK HAYES: Well, yes, at least towards the finish. But I've been reading the polls all last week, and the polls were all over the place. Some of them had Yeltsin over 40%, some of them had Zyuganov, the Communist Party candidate, much, much lower, in the teens.

But there was an American poll issued last Thursday that seemed to hit it right about on the dime. And actually, the liberal challenger, Yavlinsky, who only took 8% of the vote, his poll seemed to indicate last Friday, pretty accurately exactly, what came out.

GARY EICHTEN: Now, President Clinton says today, he's very pleased that the election went so well, nice and smooth. "Free and fair election," he describes it. Would you agree? Do most people agree in Russia that, in fact, the election was fair?

JIM: Well, first of all, President Clinton, I think, in terms of his administration, the person that's really happy with the outcome is Strobe Talbott, who's been his primary advisor on Russia, and primarily directed us toward Yeltsin's camp. So the administration had a very strong personal stake in seeing that Yeltsin did not go off and lose.

And as-- I'm afraid this is always a cynical place, and the best-- let me put it this way. Here's a standard joke going around the streets about the results of the election.

On the morning after the election, Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin's assistant says, he has good news and bad news for him. So Boris says, "OK, what's the bad news?"

"Well, it's gone off. You won 65%."

"Oh, what's the good news?"

"Sir, you won 85%."

The point of the joke might be kind of the cynicism that goes over on all of the electoral returns. But I think there's a general sense that certainly over the last two weeks, Yeltsin ran an extremely well-managed campaign. His media campaign was highly sophisticated. And for the most part, he rallied back and re-established a core of his support, and clearly, the momentum was on his side.

This is a remarkable comeback, Gary. We spoke in January when he was down to about 8% in the polls. So here, you have somebody that's come back from the virtually politically dead, and someone who didn't seem to have a chance against Zyuganov, and to really turn things around.

And now, I would say, the momentum towards by elections in, say, three weeks are clearly on Yeltsin's side.

GARY EICHTEN: Who is General Alexander Lebed, who apparently finished third, and is now described in America as the kingmaker in Russia?

NICK HAYES: Well, he certainly is. Now, this is an interesting case.

General Lebed is, by the way, an ex-paratrooper, a popular general, who in the early 1990s created quite a bit of publicity for himself on behalf of a specific issue of a Russian minority that is in the independent state of Moldova now.

He made a name for himself defending Russians outside of the Russian Federation, defending some military values. And above all else, he comes across as the law and order candidate.

But he's not a right-wing nationalist. He's not an extremist. He's not necessarily, let us say, a would-be fascist. And I think he's the real surprise story here, because most people were starting to predict Yavlinsky, the liberal, would be up around 14% to 15%. And instead, it goes to the center, conservative, pro-state vote of the General Lebed.

And that clearly means, if we look down the road for, say, the next six months to a year, that for Gorbachev-- excuse me-- for Yeltsin to win, he's not going to be going towards Yavlinsky, the liberals, and the old reform camp. He's going to be going towards the more conservative general-- General Lebed's voters.

GARY EICHTEN: But he is not, this Lebed is not, an old-style Communist or anything like that.

NICK HAYES: Oh, no, he is not. That's important. And he clearly disassociated himself from Zyuganov. He basically represents a certain gut instinct around here that we need, perhaps, somebody of more professional authority, a military man, perhaps could bring a little law and order. Perhaps he's the closest thing to a Pinochet that Russia could imagine coming from their ranks.

But he-- for example, Gary, he does not support the restoration of the old USSR, which is one of the big buzzwords, the hot buttons, the far-right, the communists, some extreme element military. He's speaking primarily of Russia itself and simply restoring order.

But within that, he certainly speaks on behalf of the Russian military, who are demoralized, underpaid. And I think the nation as a whole has a sense that the military has not been treated well.

GARY EICHTEN: We're talking today with Nick Hayes, Hamline University History professor, who is in Moscow, and has been watching the election results come in.

And we'd like you to join our conversation. If you've got some questions about the Russian election that was held yesterday, the one that's coming up early next month, the runoff election, what it all means not only for Russia, but for the rest of the world, give us a call. 227-6000 is our Twin City area number. 227-6000.

Outside the Twin Cities, you can reach us toll-free at 1-800-242-2828. 227-6000 or 1-800-242-2828.

Jim, your question, please.

JIM: Yeah, I was going to ask about Lebed. It also raises the question, since I heard Nick describing the communists as conservative and as far right, I guess, I get pretty confused about all these political classifications in Russia.

I wondered if Nick would talk a little bit about, how do Russians, in their own minds, how do they see these things ideologically? I mean, what does left and right mean to them? How do they categorize free markets versus I guess, more governmental leadership, or whatever? How do you translate those into American terms that are meaningful?

NICK HAYES: Well, if we were to describe, let us say, the right, Jim, we're referring to a combination of those who clearly advocate a restoration of Soviet communism. That is what Zyuganov advocates. Together with what they call the patriotic bloc, these are right-wing nationalist groups.

What they all have in common is an emphasis on a stronger state, a strong anti-American, anti-NATO, anti-Western position. They also tend to all argue much more in favor of law and order at home, a crackdown on corruption and crime. They all tend to emphasize at least a return to some nationalization of the major industries, and to turn away from the privatization and market reforms.

If we go then to the left, we would call the reform groups, this is generally associated with the candidacy of Yavlinsky, and these are those who hold the opinion that Yeltsin failed because he was not liberal enough. He did not advocate a systematic institutional reform towards a market economy. That he kind of hedged his bets. He zigzagged, he went back and forth, and just toyed with market reforms.

And this group primarily draws its support from the intelligentsia, primarily in the cities. For example, Yavlinsky did very well, relatively well, in Saint Petersburg. He outpolled Zyuganov there.

And if you want to characterize Yeltsin, he's really a person in the middle. He certainly has indicated increasingly less enthusiasm for direct market reforms, and more of, let us say, a Social Security blanket, social welfare. He's also tough now on crime and law and order. He's also done everything possible to show that he's a patriotic Russian aligned with the military.

But the key difference between, let us say, the Yeltsin center and Zyuganov and the right is Yeltsin argues and his whole message is that we made a break in 1991. We will not go back to the Communist past. We will not proceed with extreme radical reforms again. We'll be cautious, we'll find a Russian way to reform, but there is going to be no restoration of the old Soviet Communist system.

And if that helps you, I know left and right is confusing, because of course, I say right or conservative for what is a Communist restoration, but it's conservative in the sense of restoring the pre-1991.

GARY EICHTEN: What's the sense of the people there, Nick, in terms of if Boris Yeltsin wins this runoff and then he's elected, he's in office for at least four more years, is the sense that this new reinvigorated Boris Yeltsin will be their president, or the old, tired Boris Yeltsin, who seemed to be sick and drunk all the time?

NICK HAYES: Well, I think, we have to talk here between the image that Yeltsin projected and the popular image. Yeltsin has carried off one of the most well-organized, sophisticated, and somewhat moving public relations and advertising campaigns.

He's had very slick commercials. They all emphasize kind of nostalgia, the human side of Yeltsin. They all tend to emphasize that any hope for the future lies with him. And he's combined that with day after day appearances at youth rallies.

I mean, last week, Gary, I think-- I mean, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Friday was the last day he could campaign, every nightly news program had Boris at one youth and rock rally. Every one, he did this little, they call it the, Boris twist or shimmy here, a little dance.

And he even, on Friday, dropped the line, "Can't you see, your president is still healthy? And I'll certainly serve you well into the year 2000." And to be honest, he looks pretty good.

I did see him in Red Square Wednesday giving a talk, and he looked kind of animated and back to a man I remember from the late '80s. That's the image. And maybe I was fooled.

I can tell you, none of my friends appear to be particularly enthusiastic. That is, they probably voted for Yeltsin, but there's a sense of cynicism, both in regard to his health, his character, and the political system he represents, that, thank God, Zyuganov is not coming. But they really don't have a great deal of enthusiasm or faith in the future with Yeltsin either.

GARY EICHTEN: Nick Hayes has joined us from Moscow today. We're talking about the Russian election, presidential election, that was held yesterday. The votes are pretty well in now, and Boris Yeltsin, the incumbent president, and the Communist candidate, Gennady Zyuganov, have survived this first round, and they will be meeting in a runoff election early next month.

Today, Nick is chatting with us about his observations of this first round of the election, what we can expect in the runoff and down the road, as well.

If you'd like to join our conversation, give us a call. 227-6000 is our Twin City area number. 227-6000. Outside the Twin Cities, the number is 1-800-242-2828.

Nick from Minnetonka, your question for Nick in Moscow.

NICK: Yes. Hi. Good afternoon.

My question is, who's making the difference in the votes? Is it younger generation, or who-- The point is, who's making the difference in the votes?

NICK HAYES: Well, if the question is, who voted for whom? I'm not exactly certain, as we speak, because the pattern may not have been entirely as predicted.

Yeltsin actually appears to have done a bit stronger in the rural and outlying areas than everyone had expected. That is, he at least did a few points better out there than we would have expected.

In general, Yeltsin does strongest in the big cities. That's why last night, I noticed on the evening news, the first reports they tended to emphasize were Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Sverdlovsk, which is in the Urals and Yeltsin's hometown. So his constituency certainly is a core urban constituency.

And in terms of his imaging and support, Yeltsin clearly marketed his campaign and identified himself with the young generation. This was a constant theme.

If I can give you a quick quote from one of my favorite Yeltsin TV commercials, it shows a young baby boy confused, looking around, people yelling and screaming. And the voice at the end says, "If you can't decide how to vote, then maybe others will decide the future of your spawn. Vote for Yeltsin."

And that was the message consistently. And if I may repeat, that's why he kept appearing at all of these youth rallies and so forth. And part of it was both youth and the future belong to Yeltsin.

Now, as you get older, the older people, particularly the pensioners whose pensions haven't been paid, whose savings were basically lost, you could even say robbed due to the high inflation of the '90s, these people, as part of the old system, who cannot make the transition to the new, they clearly supported Zyuganov. Of course, Zyuganov also inherited, basically, the old bureaucratic structure of the Communist Party, who wanted their privileges, their position in society back.

And also, he managed to take a fair amount of voters from the old blue collar industrial voters, who have also been hard hit by the economic times here. And those people really had voted for Yeltsin. There were some of his bread and butter support in the late '80s and early '90s, but there seems to be a mood of disillusionment among them. They've certainly taken some hard economic knocks, and their votes are probably more likely than not split between Zyuganov and the extreme right-wing nationalist candidate, whom we haven't mentioned, Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

GARY EICHTEN: He's become pretty much a non-factor, though, in Russian politics, is he not?

NICK HAYES: Yeah, I think that's one of the real pieces of good news out of this election, is that Russia's clown fascist, Vladimir, is declining in power. And he always had a gift for buffoonery, but he kind of outdid himself in the week just before the campaign ended.

There were two interesting things. One of his followers was shot down in the street-- Excuse me-- one of his party representatives were shot down in the street somewhere out in Siberia. He claimed that was a government plot, but the police revealed that it was clearly a mafia-type execution contract slain.

And for my favorite lie of the whole campaign. Last Thursday, the day before the last day of the election, Zhirinovsky complained that Yeltsin was controlling the television, that the television wouldn't give him any support, and-- Get ready for this one-- he claimed that television was going so far to support Yeltsin that it was using computer imaging to distort Zhirinovsky's face and make him look more ugly than he was.

For the most part, he's been politically kicked out of here.

GARY EICHTEN: Well, what about the point he raises, though? Forget about the computer imaging. Yeltsin did have pretty much total control over the media, did he not? Did the other candidates have a chance to get their message out?

NICK HAYES: Well, let's explain the rules of the playing field, and then try to follow-up on your point, which is dead accurate.

I mean, technically, the media, print, broadcast were neutral. Also, each candidate was given space on television, 6 to 10 minutes, a night for their own endorsements, and they could also run their own ads.

Now, in that context, you have to remember, number one, the president of one of the leading TV networks in the country, what's called independent television here, or NTV, actually served as the public relations director for the Yeltsin campaign. And he didn't even bother to resign his job at the television station or television network.

And Yeltsin clearly enjoyed the most sympathetic of all coverage. At least for the week I've been here, every night begins at the top of the story with a wonderful series of photo ops of Yeltsin. Clearly, his soundbites are always delivered. It's always the same images patriotic man of the people, so on and so forth.

And it usually ends with one of his favorite little clips. Like, "I gave you freedom, I gave you the vote," and so on and so forth. The others got very poor coverage. In general, the main TV networks did not cover Zyuganov adequately at all, and their reports are just kind of skewing in among the other reports.

There's a great factor here that I mentioned before, though, Gary, about advertising. Yeltsin put together a remarkably slick PR campaign. He used a company here called Video International, which, by the way, the two young executives of it had done internships on one of our exchange programs over-- and they were over in America with two American political commercial companies. I'll let those two companies be anonymous for a moment.

But they put together a beautiful campaign. And it looked to me kind of-- it was an American-style campaign, but it was designed to sell Yeltsin as a very Russian product. And it was very effective. I have to confess, many of the commercials were quite moving.

And by contrast, the Communist Zyuganov, he appeared like an old Communist hack. I mean, if he did get on TV, it was at his usual old Communist-style rallies. His commercials were, for the most part, ineffective.

So the irony is that Yeltsin, in a way, had the best of both worlds. He had a very slick American advertising campaign, and he combined that with drawing upon the old Soviet tradition of a state media that more or less will do whatever its leader wants. And in effect, I think that might have been the crucial factor in changing his image and mobilizing the public over the last month.

GARY EICHTEN: Nick Hayes is speaking with us from Moscow. He has been in Moscow the last week or so, taking a look at the Russian presidential election.

Of course, Nick is, well, he's been on our program many, many times. A Russian expert, teaches history at Hamline University.

If you'd like to join our conversation, give us a call. 227-6000 in the Twin Cities. Outside the Twin Cities, the number would be 1-800-242-2828. 227-6000, or 1-800-242-2828.

Hans, your question please.

HANS: Well, it's been very interesting listening to Dr. Hayes right from Moscow. And the intriguing thing to me is how well-organized and how television-oriented Yeltsin's campaign seemed to be.

And I'm wondering, how did they pay for glitzy campaigns and hustling on the election years? I mean, it sounds like they're going to hustle like we are.

NICK HAYES: Well, I mean, if your question, Hans, is the financing of it, there's an official limit of roughly $3 million per candidate, and Yeltsin was the only one who spent the limit.

His next competitor in spending, by the way, was the liberal Yavlinsky. Yeltsin outspent him 15 to 1. I'm speaking in terms of billboards, advertising, that type of campaigning.

But that doesn't count the fact that Yeltsin gets so much generous free coverage on the media that no one else gets. And even someone from state television, by the way, acknowledged to me that often, they just ran Yeltsin commercials for free because they were obviously sympathetic to him.

It does mean that it requires at least power, where you have access to state resources, but it does require money. Yeltsin received a great deal of money from the more wealthy entrepreneurs and the leading industrialists of the country, who basically have of cast their fate with his economic program.

Whereas someone like Yavlinsky or certainly Zhirinovsky, they just simply don't have the access to that kind of money and contributions to put together the ad campaign.

GARY EICHTEN: Is there any kind of public financing for elections in Russia?

NICK HAYES: That occurs in terms of what I referred to before, as the free airtime on the state television for them to make their endorsements. Otherwise, there is a limited fund that comes out of the state Duma, but that's relatively small.

GARY EICHTEN: OK. Charlie, your question for Nick Hayes, please.

CHARLIE: In listening to this, the Czech Republic recently had a parliamentary election, where the results seemed to mean that they have to be more in consensus building, with more conservative elements of their society. And I'm wondering if the fact that Yeltsin got only the 30-- in the 30 percentile, and maybe, even if he does get elected, is there going to be more of a consensus necessary for him to rule than there was before? I'll just hang up, and listen to your answer.

NICK HAYES: Well, let us say that Yeltsin came to power at a time when there was a sense that the Soviet Communist system had to go, and he was the vehicle to end that Soviet Communist system. But there never was a clear consensus in 1991 for what type of government, what type of economic policies to follow.

Now, here to follow this campaign, as one of my friends put it, I don't know why the communists hate Yeltsin so much. He's basically giving them everything they want, and promising every policy they could possibly want.

By that, I mean, Yeltsin has become rather strongly anti-NATO. After all, it's his hand that led to the invasion of Chechnya down there in the Caucasus, a situation that's still not resolved. He also has been doling out handouts, promising to revive this and that factory that should be going into bankruptcy, and so forth.

In short, in many respects, what Yeltsin has done is, in a slightly sanitized form, taken the rhetoric of the communists, taken the rhetoric of the nationalists, sanitized it, and made it in a more palpable form, and made that his basis of consensus.

As for the real liberal element, ones that are really aggressive in terms of market reform, they are left supporting him, more or less. Either, they have no other choice-- Are they going to vote for Zyuganov?-- or just an act of trust that ultimately, somehow, Yeltsin will come to them?

But I would say without a question, new Yeltsin will be, number one, a far more authoritarian political figure emphasizing law and order, social welfare.

Secondly, he will be much more traditional in regard to the Russian military and its foreign policy, and much less the image of the lackey of NATO, the United States. And finally, I don't really see this is going to be the eve of radical economic reform. This is going to be a period that concentrates on social welfare, stability, and probably rooting out crime and corruption.

GARY EICHTEN: I believe it was Miller Stewart, who's, of course, a long-time Izvestia columnist at the Humphrey Institute now, who suggested that perhaps Yeltsin is setting himself up to become a kind of president for life. If he gets past this runoff election, then he, essentially, will never have to face election again.

What do you think about that?

NICK HAYES: Well, there's a certain danger-- I mean, let's speak of the dark side of Boris Yeltsin's moment. I mean, after all, we are speaking of a man who did use military power, tanks, against his elected parliament, the Duma.

Remember, in 1991, certainly, there was a military coup that failed because the military did not act against parliament or act against Yeltsin. And for that matter, Gorbachev never moved to that level. So Yeltsin does have that blood on his hands, of having used military force, in effect, a coup, that undermined the parliament.

And secondly, out of that, Gary, this is a presidential system. The president has the right to dissolve the parliament. He has far greater executive power, and certainly also has the power to declare a state of emergency or crisis. In that situation, it is conceivable.

That's why this election is so important, whether its outcome is Zyuganov or Yeltsin. You could imagine, Zyuganov in such a position. The president can move towards a direct presidential regime in which he could define his terms of office, pretty much, as he wants, as there's no other real constitutional body to stop him.

And the other is a certain bad feeling that lingers from Yeltsin's initial promise when he ran in the summer of 1991, June of five years ago, that he would not run again. And the fact that he violated that promise, and the fact that he did not cultivate a clear successor who should have been running in '96, leads a lot of people to be fairly suspicious of what his long-term motives are.

GARY EICHTEN: I understand that he was saying, I don't know if it was today or yesterday, whatever it is, that he has his eye now on a-- firmly fixed on a successor to him. Would that be Lebed, or is this just something to soothe the voters?

NICK HAYES: Well, one would-- I doubt if it would be Lebed. One would guess it's Chernomyrdin, his prime minister, who is his most popular member of the government, or else, it could be the mayor of Moscow, Yuriy Luzhkov, who is exceptionally popular.

And in an ironic twist, it was clear that Yeltsin, in his campaigning, wanted to ride the coattails of the mayor of Moscow, for the Moscow voting, not the other way around. And Luzhkov has been one of the real winners of this campaign. He's obviously emerged as a powerbroker, a popular figure.

I can tell you, Gary, at the rally in Red Square, when Yeltsin gave a speech, he got a pretty good round of applause, a lot of enthusiasm. But Luzhkov certainly was a lot more fiery, and he's certainly got a lot stronger response.

I would probably look to a figure like that. There's something in the Russian gut, by the way. It's very unlikely that he would go towards a military person. It's a long prohibition against this, and I don't think Lebed has any future other than perhaps eventually becoming the minister of Defense.

GARY EICHTEN: OK.

Dave is on the line, from Mendota Heights, with a question for Nick Hayes. Go ahead, sir.

DAVE: Good afternoon, gentlemen. I'm enjoying your show a lot.

I'm calling regarding the fact that I've heard many bad things about Boris Yeltsin, and you've touched on many of them. For example, I've heard that he's banned and he's busted many unions.

He's greatly censored the media. For example, he banned a popular dissenting show, 60 Seconds.

He redid the Constitution to make it favorable for his own agenda. He's dissolved parliament, and he's imposed a lot of IMF and World Bank programs, which looking at other countries such as Poland, Brazil, Egypt, and Indonesia, it creates a small elite while leaving most of everyone else out in the dust. And that's what's happened to Russia.

Estimates ranged at anywhere from 30% to 60% of the people have seen their condition worsen ever since Yeltsin came up to power. The health system, a UN reported that somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000 people have greatly lost healthcare because of these so-called reforms.

And take Chechnya. I mean, it's just another Afghanistan. It's terrible.

And as far as the media, there's been no debate on TV, basically. Zyuganov wanted to debate Yeltsin, but Yeltsin refused. The three major outlets are all pro-Yeltsin, as you pointed out.

What this amounts to isn't debate. What this amounts to is propaganda, pure and simple, whether it be by the communists or by Yeltsin. So I was wondering if you could comment on that, please?

NICK HAYES: Well, I mean, all of the points and examples are pretty much accurate, to tell you the truth.

Yeltsin does have the responsibility of being the executive officer in charge of the invasion of Chechnya, which has been an act of horror. And, in turn, has generated a great deal of resentment and opposition and criticism of Yeltsin. We should keep the record straight, though, that NTV, independent television, even though they now serve on his campaign committee, broadcast frequent and critical reports about the operation in Chechnya.

Dave was right about the show. It's 600 Seconds, not 60 Seconds, but a popular, kind of right-wing nationalist program out of Saint Petersburg by a extreme, charismatic, would-be hero on the new national right, Alexander Nevzorov, has been off and on banned and taken off television.

Yeltsin did, as I indicated earlier, violate the Constitution and in effect, attacked the parliament.

There is all of this dark side, and it is true that, in many respects, 1991 to 1994 '95 has been an economic Holocaust for the vast majority of the population. So in many respects, we should not be viewing Yeltsin as a flaming Democrat. That clearly is the case.

Yet, to look at the other choice, Zyuganov never clearly represented any ability to move beyond the old conservative base of the Communist Party, to broaden his platform towards a broader popular appeal. There's nothing in his economic package other than a half return to old Soviet communism measures that indicates that he would do any better.

And certainly, the Communist Party record on the media and censorship is nothing to be condoned.

One could imagine, in short, that if Yeltsin has committed many faults, let us say, and moved away from his earlier Democratic promise, that may be the case, but we at least still give him the benefit of a few more doubts than we would have given to the Communist Party and Zyuganov.

GARY EICHTEN: Our guest today, Nick Hayes, who's joining us from Moscow, as we talk about the Russian election, presidential election, held yesterday. In case you missed it, there's going to be a second round to the election. There's going to be a runoff election early next month, possibly on July 3.

Boris Yeltsin will be one of the people in that runoff election. He's, of course, the incumbent president of Russia. And the Communist candidate, Gennady Zyuganov, will be the other candidate.

Yeltsin got, oh, about 35% of the vote yesterday. Zyuganov, about 32%. Neither man got enough to win the presidency outright, so there's going to have to be a second round early next month.

In all, there were 10 candidates in yesterday's election. Yeltsin and Zyuganov got by far, the most votes. The third place finisher was a man named Alexander Lebed. He is a retired Russian general, and said now to be meeting both with the Zyuganov and Yeltsin forces to try to figure out just who he's going to throw his support to.

If you'd like to join our conversation, give us a call. 227-6000 is our Twin City area number. 227-6000. Outside the Twin Cities, you can reach us toll-free at 1-800-242-2828. 227-6000, or 1-800-242-2828.

Ed, your question for Nick Hayes, please.

ED: Hi, Nick. This is Ed, in Duluth.

What are you picking up about the role or the possible role of the military?

NICK HAYES: Well, there's been quite a great deal of speculation about the role of the military. And first of all, you have the factor that the Defense minister, Pavel Grachev, is an extremely unpopular character, in many respects, almost comical in his incompetence, and he pulled one of the most ridiculous electoral stunts.

About a week and a half ago, he declared that in early voting, absentee voting, or I forget what the procedures were as to why they had voted earlier, several groups of officers and soldiers had voted 100% for Yeltsin. Well, that was taken as a-- first of all, it was illegal to do that, and announce the results before the election, and secondly, it was taken as an old, kind of, typical Communist-type joke.

Yeltsin has done everything possible, together with his minister of Defense, Grachev, to woo the military, to indicate his support for them, to be photographed and filmed besides the officers in patriotic settings and so forth.

But the data that came out last Wednesday, I noticed, indicated that for the most part, the truth is the rank and file soldier probably supports Zyuganov. They're poorly paid, they're angry, they have poor conditions, and they really vote in anger against Yeltsin.

Other than that, there's really not a lot of speculation more. No one really knows where they stand.

GARY EICHTEN: Why wouldn't they go for their old General Lebed there, who was apparently quite a popular figure?

NICK HAYES: Well, I'm a bit surprised about that, too. Part of it is-- I have to be kind of a media critic here. From what I've been able to see a Lebed off the media, he's not exactly your sterling speaker, he seems to lack charisma, and he just comes across as kind of a fairly competent, honest disciplinarian-- He always emphasizes discipline, discipline-- general.

But the answer is also that their feelings are split among Zyuganov. Many of them do support the old Communist system that represented greater status and glory to the military. They also tend to support and be loyal to one of Yeltsin's old adversaries, the former General Alexander Rutskoy. Although he was not a candidate, and although in the end he threw his support into Zyuganov, he's probably, in terms of charisma, a little higher than Lebed is.

And there's various other miscellaneous figures. There's an extreme right-wing general by the name of Makashov that many of them support. And of course, Zhirinovsky picked up his votes, among them, too. Back in '92 and '93, Zhirinovsky did very, very well amongst a number of the military units.

So the answer would be, they're probably divided in their vote. And also, remember, a significant amount of the officer corps wants a better professional army, supported Yeltsin's rather brilliant move about a week ago, or was it a week and a half ago-- excuse me-- to advocate the movement towards an all-volunteer professional army. And some of the best within the officer corps still line up with Yeltsin and the idea of really a smaller, more professional, more modern army.

GARY EICHTEN: Tony, your question for Nick Hayes, please.

JERRY: Yes. Nick, I was-- This is Tony, from Saint Peter, Minnesota, and I was wondering how much play the American media has in Russia, and how much that affects the voters? And you know, whether Mr. Clinton's ideas pressure them one way or the other? And I guess, basically, if they're looking at the US, and they look at a world view, how that affects their vote? And I'll hang up, and listen. Thank you.

GARY EICHTEN: Thanks.

NICK HAYES: Well, there's many ways of describing the relationship of America to the election. But first of all, let's be just real simple. I mean, you can get cable here in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, throughout much of the country. You can watch European news, you can watch American news.

The best, simple example to answer your question is, last week, what was it, Thursday night? The last night? I believe it was Thursday-- No, maybe-- I'm sorry. It was Friday night. The last day of campaigning, CNN aired an exclusive interview with Zyuganov. And by the way, CNN's poll indicated that Zyuganov was running ahead, and the CNN interview got a great deal of play and publicity around here.

So specifically, they do have a sense of the American media and its opinion. But the larger issue is that anti-Americanism, in many respects, has become a popular political issue here over the last five years.

Zhirinovsky, for example, loves to do kind of a series of campaigns about, why do we know the name for McDonald's? Why do we know the name for Pepsi, but have forgotten the name for kvass, and traditional Russian words, and so on and so forth?

There was also the attempt by Zyuganov constantly to portray Yeltsin as a government. They like to call him the occupant, a group of foreign occupants, and that they're the puppets of the West and especially the United States, that Yeltsin has made us the junior partner of America.

And in reverse, it's not by coincidence that Yeltsin pretty much disassociated himself from too close of a tie to the United States. Certainly, spoke out NATO, certainly indicated his right to disagree about policies in the ex-Yugoslavia. That is also a fairly strong conservative issue here in Russia.

So, in short, it's not as if the United States is any more the groundswell of popular support, or that anyone would have won this election by pretending to Americanize Russia quicker. It's quite the opposite. The theme had to be whoever will win, they will return to a much more Russian path, much less enthusiasm for Western ways, and bringing back government that is much more familiar to the average Russian.

GARY EICHTEN: How does that play out on the streets of Russia? That is to say, are Americans still welcome? Are Russians still interested in buying American products, or would they just as soon make that separation complete, not just at the governmental level?

NICK HAYES: Well, I can answer that real simply, Gary. I was out all day. I'm afraid, I was kind of busy. And I got in just a little while ago, and needed something to eat fast. So I stopped at the neighborhood, very crowded, McDonald's. So that kind of answers the part of that question. American products, symbols are everywhere. Together with an inundation of Western products. So that's not the question, that they reject that.

GARY EICHTEN: OK.

NICK HAYES: Certainly, the atmosphere, by the way, on trading issues has changed. I think there remains a larger sense of disappointment with the American presence. We are not the primary Western economic partners here. We have been very slow to put real capital and investment in.

So most trading operations look to Europe or the Far East-- Japan, Korea-- particularly Germany, Italy, Scandinavian countries are far more aggressive and active here than are the Americans. So in that respect, there's still quite a bit of disillusionment.

GARY EICHTEN: We're talking with Nick Hayes, who joins us from Moscow, as we talk about the Russian elections, presidential elections, held yesterday. And if you'd like to join our conversation, we don't have a lot of time left, but we think we'll probably be able to get you on here, yet. 227-6000, if you'd like to get your question on.

227-6000 in the Twin City area. Outside the Twin Cities, the number is 1-800-242-2828.

Gordon's on the line from Grand Portage. Go ahead, sir

GORDON: Yes, sir. Thank you.

Nick Hayes, I would be interested in your comments on the role of the church in Russia, given the fact that the church was quite a dynamic factor in East Germany, and also, the new resurgence of the church, both Orthodox and Protestant, in Russia since the change in attitude, the hard-line Communist attitude, as being non-church or atheistic.

NICK HAYES: Well, that's a very good point. And in fact, everybody is courting the Russian Orthodox Church.

On Saturday night, the night before polling, which was on Sunday-- And I have to remind our listeners that according to the law, official campaigning had to ceasefire on Friday, but nevertheless, on Saturday night, the evening news showed a clip of our dear President Boris Yeltsin in the Kremlin, meeting with the patriarch Alexy II of the Russian Orthodox Church.

And although the patriarch stopped short of saying, "I'm voting for Yeltsin." He said, "We'll vote with our hearts for the future of Russia," and almost pretended to mimic some phrases from the Yeltsin campaign.

Now, it's not just Yeltsin who voted supported the church. Zyuganov-- now, no one has ever been able to quite figure this one out, but simply put, Zyuganov claims that there always was kind of a natural affiliation between the true communists and the Russian Orthodox faith.

And in its best of all, ideas, he believes that if Stalin lived another five to six years, Stalin was evolving towards where he would see much more of Russia's national religious heritage. The point of that is that even the communists now are kind of pretending as if they're devout churchgoers.

And there's a flip side to this, by the way. The church also has its conservative agenda, and in particular, it's quite anxious to see less active evangelical activity on the part of particularly American groups, laws restricting their activity, and in short, looking for a government that does more than just grant it freedom, but perhaps grant it more its exclusive place as it had for centuries in Russian life.

GARY EICHTEN: Let's go back to the phones, take another caller. Your question, please. Go ahead. Yes. Yes, go ahead.

JERRY: This is Jerry from Minneapolis.

NICK HAYES: [INAUDIBLE], Jerry.

JERRY: Yes, Nick, I'm anxious to know your reading on the mood and mentality of the people that have been dealing with oppression and obviously a lack of having a role in their political destiny all their lives. This is coming-- this has come to an end with the revolution. And I'm curious to know if you believe that there is a profoundly appreciative perspective, that these are new times, and that their lives from this point forward indeed are, in some sense, in their control, and that the system that they're operating with is one that can be trusted?

NICK HAYES: Well, Jerry, to try to comment. I mean, I have to confess, I don't have polling data and a grasp on the whole psychology of the nation, but I would divide it into two camps.

For the most part, probably, significant amount of population-- look at the votes-- one third of the population voted basically out of nostalgia for that old way of life and protection, support, and order under the Communist system. One third voted for Yeltsin and the idea of reform. And if you toss Volinsky into that, I guess, it pushes the numbers up a little higher.

But even among those, I mean, just this afternoon, talking to an old friend of mine over the last 10 years, who I guess we could describe as now, a middle-aged Moscow intellectual, traditionally on the left, he just quipped, "Oh, nothing ever changes here. Nothing ever will."

And their mentality, more often than not, is nothing really is changing, except the possibility that things could actually change for the worse.

But there remains, and there's no question, certainly for folks, I think, under 40, maybe better, under 35, maybe even if I pushed it back under 30, into their 20s, especially some of the advertising people I met that were handling Yeltsin's campaign. They may be a small minority, but there's a great deal of new energy among the emerging new generation here. That's where I think much of the leadership initiative, that is in the private sector seems to come from.

They certainly know the world is not the same. They are certainly moving to take advantage of new Russian audiences.

GARY EICHTEN: Teresa, your question for Nick Hayes, please.

TERESA: I'm not clear on, there's no presidential election set up like we have every four years there?

NICK HAYES: No, there isn't, Teresa. I mean, first of all, you have to remember the context that, first of all, in 1991, when Russia was one republic within the USSR, the Soviet Union, it had its first presidential election by direct popular vote that elected Yeltsin then to be the president of the Russian Republic within the Soviet Union.

It did at that time schedule an election for June of 1996, but that was to be presumably an election in which Russia was still part of the Soviet Union. It was then decided, and there were some debates, about not having the election at all. I mean, it was constitutionally ambiguous that the election perhaps shouldn't have been held, that they should reconsider it. But as we speak now, Yeltsin is merely going back to the second designated election under that Constitution. So the long-term future is not clear.

And that is why, to repeat what I said earlier, the fact that this is a presidential election makes the situation somewhat ambiguous, perhaps somewhat threatening, because it is not clear either what the president's future relationship with Duma will be, what the procedures of elections will be, and so on.

GARY EICHTEN: So it's not clear whether there's going to be another election four years down the road?

NICK HAYES: Well, presumably there will. But no, it's not officially designated that there necessarily will have to be one.

And let me-- perhaps, I don't want to confuse our listeners. I hope everyone is aware that in the first week of July, probably, there will be the runoff election. I don't want people to be misled.

GARY EICHTEN: Right.

NICK HAYES: That election certainly will occur.

GARY EICHTEN: OK. Another Nick is on the line from Decorah, Iowa. Go ahead, please, your question for Nick Hayes.

NICK: Yeah. Hi. I'm wondering about the role of gender in the past elections and specifically, in Zhirinovsky, I know some of his campaign was almost seemingly misogynistic. So, did Zhirinovsky have many votes from women or--

NICK HAYES: Well, I hate to tell you this, but this is perhaps, it's not even an irony, and it's not a pattern that is that unfamiliar with a number of authoritarian movements in the 20th century. Actually, Zhirinovsky did not do that badly among women voters in his earlier electoral campaigns.

What is more, if you looked at a lot of the support among Zyuganov, there were a lot of, let us say, women's organizations that had their roots in the old Soviet period, that also supported Zyuganov.

And we could think sociologically, there's a good reason for it, because we've witnessed an economic Holocaust in this country. It's been women who deal with the everyday trials and pain of the economy. And so it may be quite likely that they would move towards a more conservative, neo-communist type of candidate.

Other than that, in terms of Yeltsin's appeal, there's been no direct, clear appeal by Yeltsin, let's say, for a feminist vote, to greater gender sensitivity. But I think his image of identifying youth, identifying educated, at least had more of an inclusive message than that of [INAUDIBLE] Zyuganov.

GARY EICHTEN: Chuck's on the line from Virginia. I think you get the last question, Chuck. Go ahead, please.

CHUCK: Oh, greetings from northern Minnesota. I was asking two questions.

Is English taught in the schools over there, and is it accepted quite busily? And another question is, what would a person traveling to Russia, to visit, in case you want to travel, what's there to see over there, and is it quite popular? I'll hang up, and listen.

NICK HAYES: Well, to answer your question. Yes, English is widely taught in the schools. They have special English institutes.

What's more, there's emerged a very active private English language instruction. English is very quickly emerging here as the language of international life. Virtually, any of the well-educated now are moving to develop very clear command of English.

And sure, come on over and visit. I have to tell you, the tourist trade has been down here for the last few years due to all the negative publicity. But Russia remains, in many respects, one of the most endless fascinating places on Earth.

Its old capital, Saint Petersburg, although I'm in Moscow tonight, remains, without question, one of the greatest, most beautiful cities that Europe ever created.

GARY EICHTEN: And you get treated well as an American?

NICK HAYES: Oh, sure. You get treated fairly well.

I mean, aside from the fact that you might get in the usual hustle and shuffle of the streets, which can be pretty brutish if you're not used to that kind of atmosphere, but you're just being treated like anyone else. The fact that you're an American or that you're a foreigner may, more often than not, get you excused, and people be a little more polite to you than they are to the their locals.

But I always-- a good way of getting yourself geared up for it is go down to New York-- go out to New York for a couple of weeks, get a little street action, get used to a little tougher rudeness. Don't expect Minnesota nice and Minnesota polite, and you'll adjust pretty well.

And the flip side is [INAUDIBLE] most people greet us very warmly. No trouble making social contact, and you'll find most people, on a personal level, quite gracious but anxious to get [INAUDIBLE].

GARY EICHTEN: A couple of quick questions. Back to politics. We've only got about a minute left to go.

Number one, you're expecting Yeltsin will win the runoff?

NICK HAYES: Yes, it seems to me that he's just got too many cards up [INAUDIBLE] here. This was too well of conducted campaign.

And Zyuganov probably peaked, people say, by late April. And I think he'll clearly win the runoff.

GARY EICHTEN: And you think everything will be peaceful, more or less?

NICK HAYES: Yeah, more or less, Gary, but I do think you're going to see many more-- We had a terrorist bombing here in the metro last week, as I'm sure folks heard back there.

GARY EICHTEN: Right.

NICK HAYES: I think the possibility for more provocations, more anger, that is when the right, the extreme nationalist communists, don't see an outlet through the electorate, then it says they become politically weaker, that they tend to become more aggressive and more terrorist. But I'm speaking of just sporadic activities, not an uprising [INAUDIBLE].

GARY EICHTEN: Gotta run, Nick. Thanks so much for joining us. Have a good evening.

NICK HAYES: It's always a pleasure, Gary.

GARY EICHTEN: Nick Hayes, Hamline University History professor, joining us from Moscow.

That's it for Midday today. Thanks for tuning in.

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