Ever speak about employment which is going to be the number one problem listed by both the key informants and by the households, it's important to keep in mind that we probably wouldn't have to talk about the other 16 problems. If we had this problem solved because most of the problems are related somewhat to it to the employment problem. And so an appointment is obviously going to be one of the most important ones to look at. Beyond the basic summary I can give on the unemployment day that we have required. Is that although things are good in all things look like they're getting much better things. Really aren't that good? Okay, they're getting better, but they're not good and that maybe a little puzzling just yesterday. A lot of the news media is reporting. The latest figures out that we are Bureau of business and economic research files on the Duluth Business index and the January Figures were just released yesterday and looked fairly good the number jobs in Duluth was up to 40 5801 thousand over just a year ago the jobs in manufacturing which had been sliding over the 1980s showed a 200 job increase over the last year on the surface a pretty good the unemployment rate had fallen seven tenths of a point from January last year from 5.8 to 5.1 on the seasonally adjusted basis. So when you look at an employment problems in Duluth, things are gotten better. They were almost back to the levels that we or the job levels we had in 1979 and the unemployment levels that we were talking about 1979. So if we went through the eighties as we had a trough in about 1984 and came back up things are certainly improved on the appointment picture. As Economist know we always worry a little bit about these numbers is special numbers, like 5.1% the way to statistics like that are generated are based upon the percent of people in the labor force that have appointment. I have an employment simply means you have an appointment of any kind. So if you have a part-time job, but you would like a full-time job, you're still count as being employed by these statistics and I would argue that people that are part time that we would like. Time jobs are really not being adequately served by the job Market's the other part. I promise to such that it sticks is that they're based on the labor force which includes everybody actively seeking employment and what dilutes appears to have in the Attic tends to confirm is a tremendous amount of discouraged workers workers who would be in the labor force, but because of the lack of job job opportunities, I've tried to find jobs in a vault Italy given up and not look for them any longer and that's what the the surveys picked up as for the Carlos would expect to see those statistics tend to be Those statistics tend to understate the true nature of the problem. And I think must we go through the employment see some of the other line figures you get a better sense for that. When we when we asked about what we're asking people about employment problems. I want to go through a quick left exactly. What kind of things were with the promise that were mentioned on the unemployment problem. And the appointment area households were asked what time do they have full-time activities for lack of permanent employment opportunities the lack of good pain employment opportunities like a professional employment lack of blue collar employment need for two incomes lack of interest in looking for employment lack of employment placement lack of employment counseling lack of employment training lack of Vocational Rehabilitation lack of sheltered employment Lac supportive employment lack of pre employment services for the space displaced Homemakers and lack of information Referral Services. Things that go along with that. Without you see up here on the screen is from the telephone household survey that we did 78% which is by far the largest in any category of a 17 categories 78% believe in climate is a major or moderate problem, which is number one ranking problem of the 17th. What ask about incidents or problems you have in the last year more than one out of five households 22.1% to that experience the house and employment problem of some kind in the last one out of five households one incidence problem with the highest percent of highest incidence percent of any of the problem areas. Based on based on roughly over just over 39,000 households in Duluth that represents 8811 households that in 1988 were experiencing some type of employment problem during the year, which is a tremendous amount of households experiencing a problem. When asked are you currently experiencing a problem? Are you currently experiencing problems in this was in October and November of 1988 10.1% which is roughly 1 out of 10 households. So they are currently experiencing a problem. And this is the time that the official unemployment statistics in Duluth indicated unemployment rate of 5.1% And we have the household index game has a 10.1% figure again. It's an indication that the job that the statistics don't reflect exactly. What's going on the job market because there's a mention of discouraged workers and part-time workers. That would like maybe a better-paying job or at least a full-time job. You're not represented roughly four thousand households in Duluth that were suffering that problem couple that statistic with the fact that there may be more than one person in the household experiencing a problem in the numbers become even more mind-boggling. So although our employment statistics have improved. Imagine how bad they must have been in 84 when the unemployment rate was well over 10 or 12 for employment picture is improved but I don't want to give the false impression that that means it's good that it just tells you how bad it must have been in the middle of 80s statistics even indicated higher percentages why we have these Pacific employment problems that were experienced. These are the instance figures asking if someone said they had experienced an appointment problem. They are as exactly what type of problem is that the lack of employment opportunities by far was the largest Rank and get nothing that's an indication of Discouraged worker effect I talked about if opportunities don't exist workers tend to look for a while. But the infant son may get it give up their search drop out of the job market. They will not be counting the workforce in so that will be and will not be included in the unemployment statistics. So the fact that the lack of employment opportunities is the number one problem area mansion by the by the household indicates that there just aren't jobs available. Maybe it's got the screws and quit looking in a large number of households affected the 59% again means 59% of those saying they had a problem said that that was the problem they lack of employment opportunities as you go down unless you can see that 12% said the lack of good-paying employment that they may have a job but it's not necessarily the kind of job that really would desire me again, you'll be counted as employed by the statistics, but the job markets are not adequately meeting their needs. Unlike a full-time employment and indication that perhaps there's part-time workers out there that would prefer full-time employment. Again. All these are indications of the job Market's not functioning as well as a perhaps could if the people had a problem there ask a why did they seek help in if not, why didn't they seek help? Large would you respond and solve the problem? Unfortunately, I got I have a I have a good friend of the way. They solve the problem is by dropping out of the job market is the second most is a lack of information about Services. I'd like information about counseling training Career Development other services that may be available. If they did sea kelp they were asked why didn't they get it? If they said they didn't get it. They said either no service exist. Again. It's difficult for service agencies to provide jobs pay. They can only provide training referral counseling but that's not necessarily jobs, which is probably what the people really after me see the respondent solve the problem and I again I caution you that doesn't mean to prom with salted probably they solved it by dropping on the job market entirely in the 9 telephone survey residents that do not have a telephone we would expect or 11 indication of a lack of income and perhaps a lack of employment opportunities and you see the numbers are even more dramatic and that 4% of the population that has no telephones 91% believe employment is a major or minor problem virtually all these people having employment problems. What are the two that had an appointment problem during the past year 50% again having an implanted problem 2 out of 5 40% said they are currently experiencing a problem in that area. So as we would expect the non telephone survey group that population is is more at risk in terms of employment in the appointment area know the key informants are they asking the key informants their perceptions of the employment problems? You can see that 37% of the response has indicated that employment is a very important Community problem. They was ranked as the third most important problem. Ian McKee and phonics survey the Keene Farmers survey was broken down into the specific areas. And what we did is aggregate the responses and no specific areas good paying jobs Etc and 37% of all those responses indicate a major that it was a very important problem 45% of responses indicate that the problem was not being well addressed which is the third rank on the in the key informants. Evergate together again. We have to have two questions that were basically answer at asking the key informant. How important is this problem? And then how is Wells it being addressed if you get a problem, that's very important. That's not being addressed. Well, then you have a real problem on your head. So what we did is aggregated the energy these two rankings to try to figure out an overall feeling for which problems were the worst when you do that. The percentage is unemployment. Give it a number one ranking just like we saw in the household survey. So even key informants believed it was a very important problem and it was a problem that was not being very well-dressed the top four specific problems mention by the key informants as the most important problems were very similar to the ones mentioned by the household lack of unemployment lack of employment opportunities. Generally, which is also the number one choice of the household never work problem. The households were experiencing lack of full-time employment opportunities. Like a good paying job employment opportunities and lack of permanent employment opportunities. When asked what specific groups they believe were being affected that you can see that young adults young adult population is very difficult for for high-school graduates, even college graduates to get jobs in Duluth. Take something that this Best football personal personal experience iuic to be true and it's also reflected in the key informant survey. Hey, it's very difficult for young people to find good paying or career orientated jobs in Duluth. The other major groups affected are the uneducated undereducated or unskilled if those jobs are very difficult to find as you would expect existing service providers and what's been happening in the appointment area. We do have a lot of we do have 14 agencies that deal with the deal with employment problems. What to be aware of the organizations that try to deal with employment and these the earliest a primary focus on training counseling placement registration Vocational Rehabilitation sheltered employment. This place home worker Homemakers in the training area. Goodwill Industries Job Training Division of Rehabilitation Services, they had and others when they service provided we saw that there was 965 clients were served in training. There was a waiting list of 93 so night in the area of training there were people being being trained in one of the good jobs and not because of train is another issue but at least there was training services available. There was counseling placement placement in job's a job Club Minnesota services for the blind Goodwill Industries Duluth job training primary organizations involved are in placement an actual place new job 758 placement 330 awaiting placements. Now, we're getting more of an impact and I'm seeing more of the impact of number people still not being served in placement. The most stunning figure to me and not not really that much of a surprise is the registration at the job service of Minnesota 14,000 registrations during 1988. They people looking for jobs. You couple this with the information of a couple years ago Lake Superior Paper Industries opens up 200 job van 200 jobs at their plants to Duluth workers the initial screening fourteen thousand workers applied in k14 Thousand workers apply for 200 jobs. So you get an underlying current that there are a lot of people out there that would perhaps work if the opportunities were available, but the opportunities are not there they become discouraged workers. And so they're not even showing up in the employment statistics. Between 1981 and 1988 E7 there hasn't been a smooth transition Ashley. Most members have turned very much downward in the 1984. And then or now we're seeing on the rides. You can see for 1987 the total jobs for 44000 as of January this year in 1988 or 45 8. So there has been growing Improvement in the number of jobs in Duluth for the rears are there is Improvement in the employment picture. That's the good news or the bad news is a lot of the Improvement is in Industries, which are lower-paying Industries. You can see for jobs for services in mining. The average wage of 16178. There has been a job gain their of 700 and government. There's been a a gang of $1,500 or fifteen hundred jobs mostly in the area of local government and in retail trade, there's been a gain of jobs of 300 but retail retail sales is a low-paying industry industry. So there have been job gains, but the games have occurred in what we might call the more the more wage Industries. In manufacturing, we've lost 1600 jobs in that. Manufacturer is one of the higher income areas and we've also lost jobs in transportation, which is another high-paying area. I got a mess in the first two today that manufacturing has had a 200 job gain in this last year. So maybe there's some there's some Hope on that. But again the trends here are that a yes Employments Rising, but it's rising and Oates Industries for the wages tend to be lower. It's not rising in the high employment in the high-wage industries manufacturing jobs in 19 in the early 1980s was around 12% as a percent of jobs. Now manufacturing jobs are only 8.5% Which is higher than 1 / 8.3 last year. So there has been some games with the long-run trend over this. It's been a decline in manufacturing jobs and games in the in the other Industries to some up cuz I want to be on time. What we see with what we see in the appointment picture is an improvement in an improvement in the number of jobs for the jobs. Again are not necessary in those areas. That would most like to see him in the Hyperion area. Keep in mind that the opportunities and good paying up to his were the two men most often mentioned problems. So, although we may be getting jobs me night. We may not be gaining jobs in the areas that we must be most desirable the game then finding from the from the surveys indicate that although there's been an improvement the Nate the number of households that are being adversely affected by employment problems. It's much larger than what the official statistics would indicate the car must have been wearing well that we usually have a rule of thumb that you must fight an appointment right by two or three times and that gives you an idea of how bad the problem really is. So although it's improved since 1984. We're still talking about a large number of households in need.