(00:00:00) And the time is 12 o'clock. (00:00:19) Good morning. Good morning. I'm Leeann Chin the ancient. president of the ancient Inca And I'm a member of Minnesota meeting follow directors. Is the pressure? to Welcome All of You and also extended Welcome to the Minnesota Public Radio and throughout the Upper Midwest who are hearing this program, Minnesota meeting at Minnesota Public Radio. Well, I guess Minnesota meaning the Minnesota meaning. Podcast make possible is by the law firm of Oppenheimer wolf and Donnelly. With the obvious in menopause Singapore and the major major city through United States and Europe. Minnesota meeting Is a Poverty of public Affair if form which bring national International? speaker to Minnesota and Minnesota meeting we face and this community Affair and leading. the community leader from corporations governments Academia and proficient Minnesota meeting is present today's speakers, Winston Lord Who was US ambassador to China from 1985? to April 1989 missile or will discuss the political situation in China today's? one year after China Spring of 1989 came to Friday and in termina square, he has predicted that within a few years at the most there will be a Marek predicament and Open region in China. He will also discuss why he has objected. To reason it went by the Bush Administration told the Chinese government. When he briefed US policy should be and how he think that you wins in Eastern Europe affected China's prospects. for reform it's my pleasure to present you to Winston Lord. (00:04:21) Thank you madam. Chairman, it's always a great personal and professional pleasure for me to come to the Twin Cities area. My mother was born here. I have many relatives here the youngest of whom is my great aunt who's a hundred and two. And professionally I've always been impressed with the great interest in international Affairs shown in Minneapolis and st. Paul. And I want to pay tribute to the Minnesota meeting which in a very few years has established itself as one of the outstanding forms for the discussion of public affairs in this country. Just two years ago. I was here with the vice premier of China and many of you in the audience help to welcome him warmly and it brings back memories, of course of a much happier time for u.s. Chinese relations. And indeed for the Chinese people. And I've been honored to have been engaged in a dialogue with Chinese leaders for two decades. Working to tear down walls and open doors between us it's us with considerable sadness both personally and professionally. That I see our relationship at its worst (00:05:38) impasse (00:05:40) since I first went to China in July 1971 on a secret trip with Henry Kissinger now many of you may think that Nixon or Kissinger were the first people to go in a China officially after 22 years of separation between our countries. That's not true. I'm here to inform you that I was the first American official in China after 22 years from 49 to 71. I was with Kissinger and that trip we went to Pakistani plane and as the plane flew in Pakistan toward the Chinese border Kissinger's in the back of the plane. I ran to the front of the plane. So as we went over the Border I was first. Our current relationship is Bleak, of course because of the Crackdown a year ago and The Big Chill that's descended over the Chinese landscape River since last May in the midst of the Tiananmen Square demonstrations President Gorbachev said to the Chinese leaders in the Great Hall of the people that Soviet experience had shown quote economic reform will not work unless supported by a radical transformation of the political system. Sadly done shopping and his colleagues ignore this advice and clinging to power crushed demonstrators who were entirely peaceful and non-violent who marched Across the Nation and all major Chinese cities. And who made modest demands to modify the system not overthrow it. The remarkable Winds of Change around the world in 1988 and 89 and 90 first gusted in Tiananmen Square year ago and then moved on to Wenceslas Square. And now the red square and whatever the square is called an Ulaanbaatar. The regimes of Eastern Europe except for Romania learn the right lessons from Tiananmen Square. The Chinese regime so far has drawn the wrong lessons from the squares of Europe. For decades China onderdonk xiaoping's bold leadership was in the Vanguard of reform in the Communist world now, it's in a Time Warp. It's Fallen to the rear and finds common cause with a few stalinist holdouts like Castro and Kim (00:07:59) il-sung. (00:08:02) Last June's Crackdown was unforgivable because the regime first could have defuse the crisis with a few modest gestures in the first weeks secondly might then in late May early June let the situation Fade Away through attrition who only a few demonstrators left in the Square, but thirdly even if they felt they had to move to show their Authority they could have used water cannons and tear gas rather than tank cannons and bullets. 1976 there were major demonstrations in Tiananmen Square, ironically in favor of Don Chao paying and against the radical gang of four, they would dispersed without the use of force. It was force, but not violent force not guns and tanks, but rather tear gas. So even the gang of four showed more of a strain. Now in this past year has been a great leap backward and all fronts in China. Executions roundups purges intimidation surveillance a big live for the world and groupthink and political indoctrination for the Chinese people. Is a Siege mentality among the leadership? Just these past few weeks. The series of anniversary is coming up. The Chinese regime has not allowed the people even to stroll in Tiananmen Square or to buy armbands or white flowers to mourn in traditional Chinese ways ancestors who have died not to mention who your bong who died a year ago. There's A Renewed emphasis on ideology instead of pragmatism of Revival of Maui's slogans once again culture is serving the state there's a rollback of economic reforms with increased emphasis again on Central planning rather than a market system State Enterprises rather than private Enterprises. The role and clout of party secretaries rather than Enterprise managers and factories and all toxic approach to trade Etc and has been a slamming of doors to the outside world extreme xenophobia, including invective against the United States a Muslim of the van media. The foreign correspondents in Beijing which include journalists from all over the world not just America wrote a letter a couple of months ago to the foreign Ministry in which they said quote. There is no other place in the world today where foreign correspondents are subject to such intense systemic harassment as we are in China. Meanwhile, the Chinese leaders blame their problems on everyone but themselves Western press American pressures Gorbachev's policies Hong Kong's impertinence. (00:10:49) Of (00:10:49) course, even as they attack foreign meddling they continue to welcome van technology and even as they embargo Bourgeois liberal Western ideas, they continue to welcome Western trade and investment. Now there are some counter trends that are more hopeful and it's so far have prevented the nightmare from being worse. This is no thanks to the regime. There's subtle Sabotage by many party and provincial officials who either ignore or dilute Hardline Central directives on economic and political policy. The people as often in China are wearing masks not revealing their true feelings. Although there's greater expression privately of anger than one normally would see in that control Society this passive resistance. The people are not fooled as they were in earlier campaigns. They are protecting each other not informing on each other as an earlier campaigns. And it's clearly an underground system that's working to a certain extent many fugitives have escaped or being protected. One of the more famous student leaders just got out recently and she was underground in China for 10 months Unthinkable and that Society a few years ago. And therefore there's obviously some resistance at work. Although I would not exaggerate its effectiveness at this point. The regime has a pretty iron grip. But I think the shows that people are not only acting out of humanitarian impulses not to inform in each other, but there's a probably a calculation of work here. They figure that if I stand up and announce you today in a couple years when the winds have shifted you may come back to denounce me. So I think this adds to the evidence that people are lying in wait, and they feel that there's going to be a change. In the meantime. However, we Face a practical policy as a nation of how we conduct this very important relationship with China doing this season of The Big Chill. Whenever I think of American policy toward China, I think of the story of The Lion and the Christian this Christian was thrown into an arena with a man-eating lion. And needless to say he was very nervous and he got down on his knees to pray to his great relief the lion also got down on its knees to pray the question looked over the lines at thank God, you're a Christian to the lion looked back and said, I don't know about you my friend, but I'm saying grace. Now that story I think illustrates the fact in the last two decades when we've been building our relationship. We've learned that the Chinese unlike their previous images in the United States are not out to devour us. But we've also learned in the past year that the Chinese regime is not about to answer our prayers or that of the Chinese people. Now with a country that does have these swings. We've got to maintain a balanced approach for the long term, but obviously now when a special phase As the decider mentioned I have been critical of the Bush Administration only since December I was with it until then but at that point we had the revelations of the two scowcroft missions the first one being secret and just a few weeks after the massacre. And with considerable reluctance and regret I have been outspoken since then against the bush policy. Not only I regret this as a former Ambassador. Someone has worked on the relationship someone who knows the president and likes him and isn't a friend of his and admires him and supports him in most other (00:14:31) issues. (00:14:34) But also I broken with all the colleagues frankly that I've worked with on his policy like President Nixon, dr. Kissinger and many others in the question and answer period we can get into why perhaps but the fact is that most China Scholars and or practitioners of the policy have either been silent or have backed the administration. So I have serious disagreements with some very close friends whom I respect. My concern has been the balance in our policy, which I think has become unstuck. The tawdry symbolism like sending high-level emissaries with fawning toasts to the Middle Kingdom. The general pattern of unilateral steps that are unrequited details of congressional moves relaxation of sanctions while China's repression deepens a pattern that is dismaying the moderates in China and I might add the students and others here and elsewhere around the world and can only give a sense of the regime that political repression at home does not entail costs abroad above all I've been upset by the mindset coming out of Washington at least the Executive Branch the double standard almost every day. We see eloquent backing of democratic aspirations for the peoples of Eastern Europe Central America South Africa indeed everywhere except in China. I think the administration posture has had the unfortunate result of sparking the first passionate debate on China policy, which has enjoyed bipartisan support for 20 years that we've had in five administration's. I also think of the president had followed a somewhat firmer policy. He would have been able to preamp some of this Congressional desire to pass legislation and take some punitive steps, but there's a feeling that the such an eagerness to get back to business as usual that the Congressional branch has to move on its own. Now the choice in my view is not between current Administration policy and isolating China. That's the way the president frames it. That's a straw man in my view it nor is it a choice between moralistic policy promoting human rights on the one hand and a pragmatic policy protecting our interests in the other rather. I think it's a choice between the current high level pursuit of unrequited love and a cool Workman like relationship where we conduct necessary business, but without unfortunate symbolism between a toleration of egregious human rights abuses in China and a principled approach consistent with our policy around the world. and give it the tepid response to gentleman square and the repression since then how does this end of into the calculations of Gorbachev as he surveys his options and Lithuania, for example So I think in our overall posture we should align ourselves with a Chinese people and the Future Leaders of that Nation rather than with a few personalities who in a few years will be swept from the stage. And in this way, we will promote American interests as well as values. Now, let me be a little bit more specific. I think we should pursue a balanced policy a nuanced one and it's somewhat ad hoc one that blends condemnation and connections that features diverse approaches to various constituencies, depending on the symbolism involved in how productive the activity might be which suspends certain activities but preserves Frameworks for a better day. When a more moderate open Chinese government allows us to assume cooperation and which encourages China direction of Greater economic reform and political pluralism. Because this relationship remains very important in my view and even more so in The Next Century, there's a conventional wisdom now to downgrade it because of the political repression because it's tough to do business there and because of the Improvement of the East-West relations suggest that the Strategic factor in the China connection is less important. I disagree with those conclusions in terms of the future importance of China. I think it will be one of the most important relationships in the coming decades. We're talking about over one-fifth of the world's population. A country with nuclear weapons a permanent seat on the UN Security Council one that's Central to resolving many Regional conflicts in Asia and elsewhere and attacking some Global problems and maintaining a global balance a potentially huge Market. One of the world's richest civilizations. And then you have the talent and resilience of the Chinese people where we've seen as demonstrated in countries and communities around the world including in our own Nation. Thus we should maintain some contact in my view. For example, an international issues. We have to discuss questions like the proliferation of ballistic missiles to volatile areas in the world. Ending the conflict in Cambodia bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula Etc. But this should not be done in my view through cabinet-level visits, but rather through our ambassadors and we all know how important ambassadors are. As well as multilateral forms that don't carry egregious symbolism. Bilaterally and I know this is an interest in men in the audience who have academic or commercial and other interests with China. I think on the military front we should continue to suspend our military cooperation for obvious symbolic reasons, although I would hope we get back to that in the future. It is an important Dimension. We should continue to suspend special economic Privileges and further liberalization of exports of all technology. However, in the private sector in terms of business, I think our Traders and investors should base their decisions on whether China makes it attractive to do business there on the whole they're going backward and this is probably a time to hunker down and wait for the long run as most business people are doing but I don't think business people should be asked to carry the symbolism of our policy. They can avoid hugging leepung on National Television perhaps but in terms of doing actual trade and investment, I'd say try to maintain contact with these Progressive forces in China. But only if the Chinese make it attractive on economic economic grounds to do so Similarly in the academic and cultural areas. We're dealing with people generally who are moderate and reform is over there. So if you can have a productive relationship with them, I would say continue it not to mention bringing them over here where possible. The problem is that in the present climate. This proves difficult The Vicious attacks on Western ideas and values that the American side conveys in these exchanges make it rather chilling environment to work in obviously and it also intimidates the Chinese interlocutors from speaking the real mind and peace. So one has to question how valuable some of these exchanges are going to be. And our general rhetorical stance, I think we should recognize that the Chinese people are not different in their basic aspirations from Eastern Europeans and others around the globe rather than the present where the condescending attitude reflecting however, unintentionally cultural and even racial bias that somehow China because of size and its traditions and it's fear of chaos cannot afford to move to a democracy if we supported peaceful demonstrators making radical demands in Eastern Europe. How can we forget peaceful demonstrators making modest requests in China and some let us steer between isolation and approbation. Let us sustain indignation as we must And maintain positive lengths where we can while waiting for a brighter future. Now forecasting the future anywhere in light of the events around the world last year is extremely difficult and in China. It's particularly foolhardy. And this is particularly true for so-called China experts my wife Betty Lord. It was here today and I would not consider ourselves great experts. Although she's just written a book The disprove that called legacies and I'll get in a quick plug we often speak together on please. We're not today because she's better than I am. So I think it's better that we stay apart, but we were visiting a temple outside of Beijing couple of years ago. And we learned some humility about understanding China the head monk came out and greeted us and his eyes lit up when he heard that I was the American ambassador and that my wife was a famous author. He said would you do a great honor to this Temple and our future Visitors by writing something in English to guide and instruct people who come to this temple in the future and we were very flattered by this. This is an honor reserved for Emperors and great poets. And my wife was composing poetic couplets. I was composing Kissinger alien Geo political Maxim's and the monk went away and he came back with two wooden tablets, and he said now to guide and instruct our future visitors, please write in English on this tablet the word ladies and established the word gentlemen. Nevertheless, let me briefly guide and instruct You by forecasting that the current regime in China is a transitional one in terms of its basic orientation. Both the unity of the rulers above and the patience of the people below have been fragmented. They were political military splits that were very evident last spring and these continue to have a shaky coalition. You have the key leaders in their mid 80s and will soon be leaving the scene. You have an army that was shamed by its role as spring and resents the elevation of politics over professionalism and its ranks. You have a police that obviously we can't be totally trustworthy because they just replaced all the leaders a couple of months ago. The regime has lost the Mandate of Heaven. I think we're seeing the last emperor presiding over a declining Dynasty the urban population which has of course more information than the peasants who are more a political but have their own grievances, which represents The Cutting Edge of politics in China is in a sullen cynical poisonous mood. The waiting for things to happen. They're wearing (00:25:05) masks. (00:25:07) The best and brightest in China and overseas have been alienated by this regime and much of the opposition which was willing to settle for gradual reform of the system is now been radicalized and wishing it's demolition their tremendous economic pressures on the regime now in all fairness many of these began before last June but they've been exacerbated even as inflation has been brought down unemployment is spread growth has been stopped this tremendous problems in the economy raises. The Specter that disaffected workers could join up in greater numbers with the students in the future. There's widespread corruption and nepotism in a national ostracism, although somewhat lessening on that front. Above all the contagious effect of the events in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union and then outer Mongolia and Nepal. Why don't China's borders. And of course even in Taiwan itself. And an in an age of information and technology and interdependence China must return to reforms and opening to the world if it wishes to modernize. So I think these accumulating pressures should produce within a few years a more pragmatic Humane government, which sees the Chinese people and Western countries as partners rather than enemies. It's impossible to paint a specific scenario. Of course, probably it will take dunk shopping to leave the scene or to get senile before the sufficient fluidity so that the grip of the regime can be loosened but nothing would surprise me after what's happened in the world the last year you could have reformers taking over at the top from inside or massive demonstrations against park by some anniversary or death from below or some combination. The process could be long and relatively peaceful. I Poland was short and peaceful like East Germany Czechoslovakia was short and bloody like Romania. However, it happens China's movement toward a Freer economic and political system will be extremely difficult. The other General challenges faced by all communist regimes making these Transitions and then it's the particular challenges of China's size in history. China therefore will search for Chinese Solutions not replicate Western models and is going to be considerable zigging and zagging. But I'm basically optimistic last spring. We saw the future of China not in the Grim Knights of June, but in the Glorious Days of April and May. As like will enter said just a couple of months ago the future monuments and China will be to those who have been shot. For the Chinese people above all we must hope that The Big Chill will soon be lifted. My view it's a question of when not weather. And then the walls will start coming down again. The doors will start opening again, and then we can and we should strive once again to strengthen our relationship. The journey will be complex for China and for our bilateral relations. On the international scene, we will be friends not allies will have some significant disagreements as well as cooperation. And in our bilateral engagement, we will have to relate to Continental Giants with vastly different histories and cultures and traditions and stages of development. This will not be an easy task for Americans. We've held historically wildly fluctuating images of China swinging between romance and hostility the evil fool Manchu the noble peasant of Pearl Buck just in the past half century. We have you Chinese successively as beleaguered allies and implacable foes as yellow hordes red guards blue ants as Angelic Mao man and a diabolical gang of four as budding capitalist adorning magazine covers and beastly Communists crushing students. We're going to need a steady of vision. In our attitudes and in our policies, we must see the yin and yang of China where the Opposites form a hole. In recent decades thanks to our growing links. We have traveled far discarding both red herrings and rose-colored glasses in the past year. Thanks to the images on our TV screens. We have traveled farther and seeing the two faces of China. Beyond The Big Chill challenges in dealing with China will be formidable. But so will the stakes for the Chinese people. For the American (00:29:58) people (00:30:00) and for this planet in the 21st century. Thank you very (00:30:03) much. (00:30:18) You are listening to the Minnesota meeting on the station's of Minnesota Public Radio coming to you from the Hyatt Regency Hotel at the south end of the mall in Minneapolis. Mr. Ambassador. Good afternoon. My name is Gary Gilson. My colleague Jane mrazek and I will field questions for you. Let me Begin by asking you answer them for me to a no. No My Chauffeur. Will that's a joke from another Minnesota meeting if you were to sit down now with the leaders of China today, how would you envision a dialogue in which you explain to them? What you thought their enlightened self-interest was and where you would meet the greatest points of resistance from them. What depends a little bit which leaders you're talking about? I assume you mean the hardliners who essentially in control. Although I would have the same message for all of them. I would point out that world events have shown and last being should have shown in China. That you can't have political reform and economic reform be separated Gorbachev's made progress on the political side. But if he doesn't produce economically soon and cut down those consumer lines and in the Soviet Union, he's going to lose out similarly in China. You cannot just have economic reform without giving people a sense that they can participate in shaping their political future. For example, you can ask people to undergo some unemployment and inflation when they make a transition to the market economy is going to be pain. You've got to give a sense they can participate in a dialogue Express their views and helped to shape decisions to make that transition. So I would say to dunk shopping and others you made progress for 10 years, but you made the Fatal mistake of thinking that you can just have economic progress and hold the lid on politically. It's not in China's interest. It's not in your self-interest. Then I would add the notion of the proof of the last year or so of what happens to a jeans Who dig in particular in an age of telecommunications and interdependence with the Middle Kingdom can't shut out what's happening in the rest of the world. So I would try to appeal to their self interest on these grounds. I would add the more and more and human rights considerations. But frankly with Chinese pragmatic leaders. This is going to have less impact than sort of the hard-headed self-interest that I would stress. So this would be the approach I would take with them. I don't think I could meet with instant success, but I would do my best. (00:32:37) Thank you Ambassador Lord a question from Bill Connor. (00:32:40) You were suggesting that we have economic restraint with regards to China. Are you suggesting that we revoke favored nation status with China then (00:32:48) well any economic are like another areas, I believe in a somewhat nuanced approach. It's not a clear-cut easy policy that either President Bush or Jesse Helms is going to be happy with in the it to answer your question specifically in the economic are as I've already suggested. I think private business should be carried on by business People based on trade and investment climate. We shouldn't be extending new privileges. If for example China did not have most favored nation, I would not extend it now. Now I'm fearless as a private citizen in my outspokenness these days and so I will now tell you that are now ambivalent and I have made up my mind when mfn in fact Administration officially hasn't either let me give you the arguments on either side of that. I think it's most of this audience knows MF n stands for the status of with our trade partners and lower tariffs essentially for most countries in the world. It's really the natural state of our trade not a special privilege China has that but it has to be renewed every year based on immigration and human rights policies. The law says only immigration so they're cutting out the emigration of some Chinese citizens. So you'd have to look at that issue and how serious that is its much Freer immigration. It was many years ago and Freer than some countries that enjoy them fnc. Let that's one argument. However for revoking mfn another one is the general statement against repression and China and the human rights posture of the Chinese because that's been taken into account in discussing mfn with other countries. So those are strong arguments that consider sending measures of disapproval and symbolism to the Chinese the arguments against we walking mfn of the following very briefly number one as I say, it's not a special privilege to the Natural ones number two. They already have it. It's a lot different to provoke something and extend the new privilege and I am in favor of maintaining Frameworks so that in the future when it's a better regime in China, we can resume cooperation and not have to repair something that may be very hard to rebuild after it's been torn apart. Thirdly, it's going to have a very negative impact on Hong Kong's economy Hong Kong doesn't need economic blows at this point. In addition to with psychological problems is China's about to take it over China export about eight billion dollars above 12 billion dollars to US last year. We exported about 6 billion to China about half of their exports. I think came through Hong Kong, even though they were counted as exports to us. And this would have a tremendous impact on the Hong Kong and economy. And that's not of Interest. It would hurt some of our importers any Chinese Goods. It would hurt some of our exporters of China retaliated. It would may not be effective of other countries. Don't join in and I'm sure Japan and Europe wouldn't join in and it would cut off our contacts with Traders and investors in China in some respects who represent more moderate forces. So I want to see what happens in China between now and then I'm asking I'm trying to get to my sources a better sense of the impact on Hong Kong and the immigration situation specifically with respect to China based on those criteria. I'll make up my mind as summer when it comes to a head. Mr. Ambassador question from Emily and Staples. (00:35:51) Good afternoon. Mr. Ambassador with the probability of a reunified Germany. What do you see from your period in China's the possibility of a reunified China with (00:35:59) Taiwan? I think it's temporarily the possibility is dimmer because the people in Taiwan don't like what they're seeing on the main line with respect to political repression Etc. Taiwan's not a perfect democracy either but they were moving in terms of a form. They have kept up their economic links in a travel to China. However, despite what's been happening. I think it depends what you mean by reunification. They've been encouraging progress in the last few years while I was Ambassador nothing to do with me because the u.s. Stays out of this wisely, but between Taiwan and China were trade is picked up although unofficial picked up dramatically in Taiwan Investments picked up and hundreds of thousands of people from Taiwan has visited the mainland. This is a peaceful process and all we ask is a countries that would be peaceful and freely chosen by both sides as it has been so there's been some de facto ties. No, moving a political front as we look to the future. I think there's a lot of economic incentive for the two to get together. But a lot of political obstacles to be overcome Beijing is indicated that they give great autonomy to Taiwan and its political system Etc. However, given that pressures and their brutal policy toward Hong Kong recently this must give one pause about whether they carry that out the answer your question. I don't think it's to be excluded that NSA period of roughly 15 or 20 years that you could have a situation where this de facto Association, perhaps the principle of one China but considerable autonomy for Taiwan or some unique Chinese solution of two systems one government or Confederation. I can't spell it out obviously, but they may find a way with Tywin really sort of maintains de facto Independence. But China and Taiwan can sort of we are from the unity now the younger generation in Taiwan, there may be some greater movement for Independence, but most of these people recognize that formal Independence would create a crisis with China and with other countries in the world have to choose between the two China's and are doing so well economically now in the security is so well assured it'll be you know, reluctant to tamper with a good situation long answer your question. I think there's apt to be a close Association assuming a more moderate regime in Beijing which makes it attractive and certainly close economic Association. (00:38:21) Thank you Ambassador. This is Pat Loom. (00:38:25) Yes, mr. Ambassador. I have a question speaking of immigration and Hong Kong. What are your views toward that British colony before and after (00:38:35) 1997. Well, I have very affection of you. So the British colony and wish them well, of course. I'm obviously much less optimistic about Hong Kong's future than I was a year (00:38:48) ago. (00:38:50) As other people of Hong Kong where it's most important. I don't have to elaborate. It's not only what's happening within China which discourages what might happen in Hong Kong. But the intransigence of the Chinese are not allowing any free of move toward democracy in Hong Kong the attacks on Hong Kong for allowing demonstrations in support of the students the attack on the British for allowing immigration Etc. So this is deep in the scars of last spring and a shake in the confidence in Hong Kong and this is reflected by the fact that wealthy a thousand Hong Kong people a week or leaving to go to the Canada Australia United States Etc. And these are mostly professionals that are needed to help run the economy of that important place. So these are all discouraging Signs Now, I'm not totally pessimistic and it's three or four reasons why I still hope that Hong Kong will prosper in the future number one is a tremendous resilience of the Hong Kong people who many crises before this is their greatest but they've shown before they shouldn't be counted out. Even on the immigration fun summer turning back and returning an investment and trade continues with other countries. Secondly the most crucial I think that we as I've already said a more moderate wise regime in Beijing that will see it self interest in letting Hong Kong Prosper well before 1997 which had helped restore confidence with all those scars of last spring are going to remain thirdly this tremendous self-interest for China to let Hong Kong Prosper because of its tremendous commercial and financial stake in Hong Kong the investment the the money flows very important and they recognize that in principle in the past by a rather moderate approach to the basic law governing Hong Kong and letting it be capitalistic for 50 years. And finally, they have to recognize that Hong Kong situation of a tremendous impact on Taiwan after its didn't unification is we were just discussing if they mess up Hong Kong and a brutal and its treatment of Hong Kong. They'll never have a chance to get Taiwan to associate with the mainland. So with a more moderate regime in Beijing these entrance self-interest factors of the psychological impact on Taiwan and the financial and Commercial Dimensions. Should we assert themselves, but I have to be less optimistic because these scars are going to remain and people Hong Kong on a wonder where the wind shifted once shifted many times it could shift again. I think by the way, it's adventurous to the United States and I think we should move it up and our agenda let the British continue to take the lead closely coordinated with the British but begin to make clear to the Chinese even in the present constricted dialogue that we have an interest in the future of Hong Kong not only humanitarian but financial and economic. We're listening to the Minnesota meeting on the station's of Minnesota Public Radio. Our speaker. Today is the former United States. (00:41:38) Ambassador to China (00:41:39) Winston Lord from 1985 to 1989. Here's a question from Joseph Krueger. Mr. Ambassador. Thank you for joining us today. I wanted to have you touch a little bit on the tavitian where the te Bastion situation you mentioned earlier looted to the double standard of the Bush Administration. I think that that's no more evident than it is in the bat that situation has been going on as long as Tiananmen or more drastic than Tiananmen. I should say and yet it seems to be the taboo of the Diplomatic channels not to put pressure on the Chinese administration were past or present what can be done to escalate the the awareness and the views of the American public on that issue. Well, that's a very fair question Tibet is suffered because the TV cameras don't reach too bad. It's remote journalists and visitors have been discouraged or fully isolated from Tibet for a couple of years under martial law. First let me say that Everything's Relative the situation Tibet up until the last year or two was totally unacceptable but nevertheless so much better than it was in the 50s and 60s who allowing some religious practice. We building monasteries putting in some economic aid, but even before last spring as you suggested, they were mistreating prisoners and torturing them putting down dissidents. Roughly the basic Han chauvinism toward the Tibetan culture. I visited Tibet. I was the first ambassador from America ever to do so and I conveyed our views directly to the top Tibetan Tibetan Province leaders namely Chinese as well as Tibetan officials and made very clear unhappiness. Obviously didn't make much progress. We're going to have to continue to keep that on our gender. It's something that is unacceptable. Frankly. The only hope for that situation is for direct negotiations in my view between Beijing and a Dalai Lama. They were inching toward that until last spring. I think it could happen with a more moderate regime because they're even more nervous because it's reports of ethnic flare-ups in Muslim provinces of China in the Northwest. But the Dalai Lama courageously has stopped short of calling for Independence at the risk of losing his more radical followers. And I think the Chinese have an obligation to meet him partway on that and Grant much greater autonomy religious and economic and social Freedom there. I don't rule that out with a more moderate government in a few years. In the meantime, we have to keep it on our agenda, but it's brutal there and they still have martial law even though they've lifted in Beijing although the lifting and Beijing hasn't been anything in practice. (00:44:08) Thank you. Mr. Master, Jean (00:44:09) sit. Thank you Winston. You look back in Chinese economic history (00:44:17) The (00:44:18) Liberation of Revolution and 49 was really brought about by economic conditions in the country. The Red Guard Revolution really reflected the failure of mouse earlier policy. I think you agree with most of these comments and then you look at when Dawn came in the power and the elimination game for again. It was a recognition China was moving backward economically. And what we had a year ago was a concern over inflation and following a period of very excellent economic progress on the first nine years of dung's regime. I think those are the facts. Right now wouldn't it be a now interest? To impose further economic sanctions on China from the standpoint that the economy is already deteriorating very very badly. Even though inflation is improving and that bad news may be good news from the standpoint that we all know socialism does not work has not working. So on and that this may reinforce the moves from within in terms of moving low-paying and others towards economic reform as we understand (00:45:31) it. Well, I think you can make that case in effect. It would be acknowledging sort of explicitly that you're trying to overthrow the government much as we don't like the government. It's in nobody's interest for ought to be taking that position. We can be critical as I certainly have been and we could hope for a better day, but I don't think it helps the Chinese moderates if it looks like the u.s. Is directly involving itself in the Chinese Civil War. So it's got to be a more muted approach in my view. I think we certainly should not be extending further economic concessions. Not only for human rights grounds, but because they're now going back to policies that won't make effective use of loans, for example, discouraging foreign investment, even though they seem to they aren't but in many ways they are by discouraging the market system and propping up State Enterprises. I would not be as explicit in his Sweeping in terms of rolling everything back with unless the situation gets even worse in China. It's hard to see I would get much worse. I do want to leave some Frameworks in place so that we can resume our contacts. I also think it's unfair to American Business people who have spent 10 years say in China with a lot of investment of patients as well as dollars to tell them they've got to have all the investment go down the tubes when they're playing for the long run any event and where I think they're basically should hunker down and wait for a better day. So I see the case of making it certainly would be a case that the courageous students and others might wish to make at this point. I believe there should be more disapproval and selective sanctions, but I'm not prepared to see us explicitly. Say we're going to try to bring you down by turning the screws even further. Here's a question from John Richter about a year and a half ago. I asked Harrison Salisbury look into the future. Russia China, which would be the great economic force and at (00:47:24) that time he said (00:47:25) China, what would your answer looking in the future 25 years? Yeah, if you give me 25 years and more I would say China certainly China has got first of all the great Vigor and talent of the Chinese people and that's not to be underestimated. But with respect to a forms generally it has advantage of the Soviet Union doesn't have first of all you have an entrepreneurial tradition in China and certainly we've seen that overseas Chinese and the Chinese Community Singapore Taiwan Hong Kong how well they've done in Southeast Asia. You don't have overseas child overseas Russians, for example, you don't have much entrepreneurial spirit and Soviet Union Chinese were forms of advanced much further. He despite the setback of the past year. They're way ahead of the Soviet Union on the economic front of moving toward the market. I think there was umm that once they get a more moderate regime and I've got 30 or 40 Years of Barack seed overcome, but the Soviets 70 or 80 years to overcome. Also. The Chinese don't have the degree of the nationalities problem that the Soviet Union has to be sure. It's got the Muslim minorities and it's got Tibet but only seven percent of the Chinese population is non-han Chinese 50% of the Soviet population is non-russian. And finally the Chinese have sort of a self confidence based on 3,000 years of history and culture and civilization. I think the Russians have someone more insecure it's hard to quantify this but a courageous move to a different kind of system. I think will rest easier in China than it will be in the more insecure Soviet Union. Finally China has already devoted its resources from the military to the economic front although a slight rise in a budget this year of the military. So Union still has to make that adjustment so in this kind of time period I would put my money on the Chinese having a better chance at reforms in the Soviet Union. (00:49:18) Thank you Ambassador Edward corn. (00:49:21) Thank you. Mr. Ambassador. If you were a Chinese student in the United States today, what would be your thoughts? And what should be your actions (00:49:30) first? I would concentrate above all on my education. I mean that seriously in terms of being ready to help my country when a brighter day in a better regime makes it possible to go back that education should include not only General humanitarian education or liberal arts or Sciences technology, but also learn more about democracy and what it really means. So that I could be ready to go back. So that would be my primary objective. I would also frankly be active and trying to keep alive the cause of the moderates and the reformers make sure Americans and Chinese and others around the world. Do not forget. What happened. I'd be on my fax machines. I'd be on the telephone thirdly. I would try to make My Views known in Washington to the Congress and to the administration. My thoughts would be one of concern over my friends who are in jail and who being intimidated concern over the fate of the Chinese people generally but tempered with the basic optimism for reasons. I've already suggested that this Grim passage will not last very long. And therefore I get really busy getting myself ready to be one of the Future Leaders of China and go back there within a few years question from Bill O'Brien. (00:50:48) Ambassador Lord on I was in Beijing and Shanghai Guangzhou about two months ago. And I found the same sort of bitterness the sense that you alluded to of Chinese feeling that they were living through the last few years of a dynastic reign of more that huangdi the last emperor of particular Dynasty passing from the scene. I found that bitterness and people were willing to speak as you said in private in very strong terms about their dissatisfaction. I found a high level of anxiety over the issue of who would lead China in the post dung Arrow. Who would lie China I'd ask them. How about Jiang zemin? They'd say no no. No, how about leepung? Oh certainly not he won't last more than six months to a year. You know, who do you think you've said that? We should be looking to maintain our ties keep the framework there for working with Moderates and reformers in China, who do you think will step into the vacuum? (00:51:52) Okay. Next question, please. It's a fair question and a tough one. First of all, I have great faith that someone will come along even if I can identify him or her and it still putting chauvinistic there. It's have to be him at least for the near term. Hopefully someday her as well. Although not The Dowager Empress but you know where to Gorbachev come from whoever heard of him with an Anwar Sadat of Egypt come from and the Chinese have such talent. So there's that General principle. We shouldn't be discouraged even if we can identify somebody now, you're right. It's easy to say who's not going to be I mean if to be number two, man in China was Jiang zemin is now the party secretary. It's a fate worse or maybe not worse than death, but close to it. Every number two man's been shoved out Joe and I survived by being number three, he's not going to survive. He has no Military Support. Not much political support leepung is is the tested about the people he's not going to last. If I start naming individuals, that's probably going to ruin their careers. So I better not get into that. But there are some moderates even at fairly high levels who are keeping your head down who were willing to stay on and try to moderate what's happening but a waiting for a brighter day and as well as people now purged or lying low, so I can't give you specific names. I gave you the forces at work, which made me think it could happen. There are some people I can identify without getting him in trouble who I think are relatively constructive. I don't wanna get an archaic names here, but some of the provincial officials the current mayor of Shanghai some of the vice premiers now including the one who was mayor of change in a very very good record on economic reforms. I don't mean to suggest to get them in trouble that they don't go along with the present regime, but they managed to project a more positive image and I think some of these people can get together with other people outside and provide a good leadership in the future. (00:53:48) A question here from Jim Hill sir. (00:53:50) I was wondering what do you believe the reaction or attitude would be of the current regime if the United States goes through with the plan to put a naval base at camera on Bay. (00:54:03) Well, I don't think we're going to be putting a naval base in camera under and Bay Soviet still haven't gotten out yet and it's not going for both of us. I don't think that's a likely possibility. I think if anything happens, maybe that'll become neutral again and the Vietnamese will take it over again. If we were the Chinese have rather have us there than the Soviets they fear the Soviet Union over the long on much more than us despite. Our current difficulties. I'm talking geopolitical historical terms. They also don't like the Vietnamese and they may figure our influence there could be a balancing Factor, but it's a very hypothetical question. It's not not going to happen in my view. Here's another question from Bill eggy Quest. (00:54:47) Would (00:54:47) you care to comment and future Chinese Japanese relationship as you see? Yes. Well, it's an important relationship. Obviously the two most important countries in Asia. I think they have great economic incentives to work together and that will continue although we've now become a more important export market for China than Japan would number 125 percent of China's exports, but nevertheless over the long run. I think Japan and China had very strong economic ties and that will keep them from being enemies in my view. However, the memories of World War II and the general ambivalence between those two cultural Giants over the years will keep them from becoming close friends. So I think it'll be a somewhat ambivalent relationship which will progress based on pragmatic interests. But both of them are wish to have us stay in the Pacific partly to balance off. The other China does not want Japan to be re militarized as long as we're there and we have a security umbrella with Japan. That was strange. Japan. Japan has its own concerns about China over the long on it. It wants us to stay in the Pacific. So we're in a good position in these triangular relationship. (00:55:55) Here's a question. (00:55:57) Here's a question from Tony Leung (00:55:59) a recently. I've been reading accounts in the newspaper that the executive order which was supposedly of been issued was not technically given because of a failure to publish in the Federal Register. I believe given your Insight and being a part of a pass in ministrations what goes into the thinking of saying is that an intended Omission or what who would present the idea and how would it be discussed? (00:56:28) Yeah without getting overly esoteric and we don't have too much more time. The president used the word executive order and his Communications with senators and so on his intention was from the beginning was the issue instructions to his attorney general. This is to protect Chinese students. Make sure they don't have to go back if they faced political persecution is no question my mind the president wish to protect students wouldn't let him go back both because he's a Humane person and to be political suicide the force them back. (00:56:55) On (00:56:55) the other hand, I was disturbed by the mindset which suggests that they were reluctant to make this formal in an executive order after already vetoing legislation, which would have made it even more formal. So it's not so much the intention and a specific issue. But this sort of feeling we don't want to alienate the Chinese by making it more formal in public that deeply disturbs me as I've already suggested. He has now issued the executive order but only under pressure from Congress and only after Congressman came to him privately not to embarrassment said, hey, we haven't seen you follow through on your promise. Why haven't you done it? They still persisted for a few weeks. And only when there was a threat to go public did they do it. So I trust the president on protecting students, but on continue to be disturbed by the mindset of the administration, which doesn't want to offend the Chinese regime and what you're willing to dismay Chinese students. Mr. Ambassador. Mr. Ambassador. Thank you very much. We have a member of this meeting also a valuable member of this community. Dr. Malcolm MacDonald one of whose Hobbies it is to collect Proverbs one of my hobbies is Collect ethnic curses one of which I understand in Chinese is may you live in interesting times? Could you leave us with a Chinese blessing? I think may you live in interesting times as a blessing as well? Certainly right now? It's a curse for the Chinese people. There's a very sad situation there, but I personally feel that this is a very hopeful time in world events and it will be for China and what's happened the past year around the world and the movement toward democracy and the movement toward a market economy and so many countries. I think it's very hopeful it puts new problems up but every breakthrough in international relations as an admissions ticket to New Challenges, I think China is living in grim and interesting times now, but I think the Chinese will be living in positive and interesting times within a very few years. Former United States ambassador to China Winston Lord. Thank you very much. (00:58:55) And he spoke at Minnesota meeting on the topic China Great Walls and Open Doors Live broadcasts of Minnesota meeting are made possible by Oppenheimer wolf and Donnelly providing commercial corporate litigation and international legal services to businesses in 40 countries around the world. That's our midday broadcast for today. It's made possible with financial assistance from the James are Thorpe Foundation. This is Bob Barker. This is K. No W Minneapolis-Saint Paul in the Twin Cities 39 degrees. Now the wind from the Northwest at 18 miles an hour we could see (00:59:30) 50. (00:59:35) NPR Network station kzs EFM in the Rochester area is beginning its second year of quality news and information broadcasting. Thanks go out to all members who support the MPR news and information network stations. We'll get an update on the news from National Public Radio in just a few seconds. And then Beth friend will be in with today's edition of take out a little bath. I bought butter. Well what you got on today for us lots of interesting people. We're going to meet Scott Berg the biographer of Hollywood Mogul Sam (01:00:04) Goldwyn, then we're going to meet the maker of a much later. MGM film Gordon Parks made the film shaft. He's a photographer and poet as well as filmmaker and we'll hear from English rock critic John Street. He has some thoughts on how the British here American (01:00:16) music now the film shaft were talking about that a few seconds ago. When you remember when that was made, (01:00:22) I don't know the dates on that early 70s (01:00:24) early 70s or so. (01:00:25) See those are the kind of questions. You ask him my mind races back to the articles. I think where's the day (01:00:30) wears the oh, well, we'll find out more in just a few minutes take out coming up with Beth friend. Just after the news here from National Public Radio and a minute past one.