(00:00:06) Thank you, and it is a pleasure to be here. It's a homecoming of sorts for me. And I made sure the homecoming came towards the end of April rather than earlier in the year. What I'm going to do today is is to talk about the nature of the Reagan presidency. We are now almost six years into this this presidency. It's I think a good time to step back and take stock of Ronald Reagan as a president and the Reagan Revolution whether it has succeeded or will succeed in what (00:00:44) dimensions where this presidency fits (00:00:47) into the context of other presidencies. Of course, I could have succumbed to the temptation of Simply reading excerpts from David Stockman's book, but Since Newsweek had to pay $250,000 for those and I don't have quite that much money. I decided to avoid (00:01:07) that nevertheless the appearance of the stockmen book makes it appropriate I think because this is a time as we go forward and as we approach the last election (00:01:19) that Ronald Reagan will see during his (00:01:24) tenure as (00:01:25) president will have an impact on his (00:01:27) presidency with the stockmen book focusing on the (00:01:32) first five years really (00:01:33) looking from the inside at the nature of Ronald Reagan's personality the nature of the Revolution (00:01:40) and what (00:01:41) happened and given Stockman's assessment that the Reagan Revolution (00:01:45) failed an assessment. By the way that I do not share. It's an appropriate time since people around the country and in Washington are going to be comparing notes on this book to focus on this subject surely. It's a little premature. And history as with every president and every presidency will ultimately be the (00:02:04) judge but there are a number of ways in which we can (00:02:06) look at Ronald Reagan and look at Ronald Reagan's presidency now have a better understanding of where we've been and where we're heading. (00:02:17) It's also I think something that is tempting to do because of the nature of Reagan's background and personality (00:02:25) here. We have a president who is now 75 years old (00:02:28) and his basic operating (00:02:30) style the (00:02:32) way in which he approaches life ideas policy Administration simply haven't changed much so far as we can tell in at least 40 years. This is a man who is far more stable than people will usually (00:02:49) find going into the political (00:02:50) Arena. He has an internal (00:02:52) anchor we get a lot of ridicule at (00:02:56) times about Reagan reaching back for outdated anecdotes to try to apply to current situations and surely he does that that is simply because Reagan's internal compass that takes him back through (00:03:09) his life experiences (00:03:11) is something that he relies on very heavily. And it's one reason why we can look at him now and assess his presidency in Midstream and have some degree of confidence to projecting forward because he is not going to change he hasn't changed up to this point. He isn't going to change much in the end. One of the things that I find most interesting from a Washington (00:03:31) basis observing the political process is the degree to (00:03:34) which nevertheless he is able to convince the media political observers and political actors that maybe this time it will be different. (00:03:44) Right now for example, just to jump a little bit ahead of myself. We know (00:03:48) that ever since Ronald Reagan was President of (00:03:51) the Screen Actors Guild (00:03:53) and negotiating contracts. His operating style has been to take a firm fixed unchanging position say over and over again. That's it. I'm not budging. I'm not moving at all wait for the other side to move and at the last minute after the other side is moved as far as it's going to move (00:04:13) said. Alright now, let's negotiate and cut a deal. (00:04:16) He's done that every year that he's been president. He's done that with the budget. He's done it with taxes. We can go back to (00:04:23) a famous speaking of anecdotes a famous anecdote of a time when Reagan was governor of California negotiating (00:04:29) welfare reform and said at a press conference, I am finished. I'm not moving another inch my feet are set in concrete. Two weeks later. He totally changed every position (00:04:42) compromised on the mall then called in the press and said gentlemen, the sound that you're hearing is the noise of concrete cracking around my (00:04:49) feet. That is Ronald Reagan style. (00:04:52) And right now as he is saying no tax increase I'm absolutely not budging any more on defense. We're not moving at all on the budget. It's the same exact posture that he's taken for five years and people take him seriously. Once again as part of his (00:05:04) strength, (00:05:05) undoubtedly and his Mastery (00:05:08) of the political process that he can do this (00:05:11) and not have people saying all right, let's forget him. Ignore him. We can go ahead go ahead go about and do our business because we're going to end up getting a compromise in the end as we've seen before he is able even with this operating style that's been unchanging to project a sense of certainty that people do take for what it's worth and at face value, Now given that let me step back a little bit and talk about the nature of Ronald Reagan based on what we know from his autobiography from the biographies that have been written from discussions that I've had with the people who have been around him for decades and who worked closely with him in the White House. There (00:05:51) are clearly certain basic key (00:05:53) fundamental elements that stick out elements that Define his personality (00:05:58) elements that are rooted in his (00:05:59) background elements that suggests and Define the goals that he has as as president a few (00:06:05) basic fundamental things. I think that we have to discuss these things before we can move on and talk about his operating (00:06:12) style as a president, which is also very important. Every president handles things differently. Some presidents get immersed into Tails other presidents don't want to have anything to do with details some presidents manage their white houses. (00:06:25) They run the (00:06:26) show they are in effect both president and Chief of Staff other presidents have no interest whatsoever in management or Administration. Raishin and delegate virtually everything (00:06:36) some presidents work night and day other presidents don't see (00:06:39) the job as something that requires a 24-hour commitment all of those things that fit into the operating style are also important in (00:06:49) defining the presidency and (00:06:51) trying to project ahead as to what is going to happen down the road. We also have to look some at the political context (00:06:59) how a president does depends on when the president becomes president what the conditions are at the time who that president has succeeded in office the attitudes of the public the nature of the election and what it means in terms of a support inside Congress, all of those things are highly (00:07:15) important in (00:07:16) giving the president or denying him an opportunity to make a (00:07:21) dramatic beginning to have an impact on the society right from the start given the basic fact that if presidents are going to really shape policy at least in the domestic Arena. Word of a crisis it's going to happen at the beginning. It's generally speaking downhill after that and then (00:07:41) move from there to look at the future (00:07:43) and where we're going to reside so, I'll try in the brief time that we have available to cover a lot of those points shedding. I hope some light on the nature of the Reagan presidency where we've been and where we're going now. Let me first address a few key points about Reagan's personality. (00:08:01) First and I think most important (00:08:04) and this also has been clear for many many years, but it's certainly been clear through his two terms as governor. And now one-and-a-half terms as President Ronald Reagan is very clearly to people (00:08:16) to people at the same time (00:08:18) the two faces of Ronald Reagan (00:08:20) one is the ideological face. He (00:08:23) is no question and idealogue (00:08:26) his rhetoric his (00:08:27) background put him on the right wing of the Republican Party. (00:08:32) He has been rooted firmly in the the (00:08:36) principles of conservatism. He is the (00:08:39) hero of the new right for good reasons. He's read human events Faithfully week after week for good reasons. He believes it. There's no question (00:08:48) that he is an idea log. (00:08:52) When you turn to the other side though, there is also no (00:08:54) question that Ronald Reagan is a supreme pragmatist and (00:08:58) these two individuals the ideologue who speaks in extreme and pure positions the pragmatist who says a quarter of a loathe or an eighth of a loaf is better than none. I'm not going to jump off the cliff with all flags flying for a principle if I can get (00:09:13) something out of the political process (00:09:17) these two almost contradictory individuals coexist, peacefully inside the same body and always have it's an unusual (00:09:26) combination very frankly. (00:09:28) It is also very clearly (00:09:32) one of the greatest strengths that Ronald Reagan has as president. (00:09:36) First it was what enabled him to get to the White House in the first place (00:09:40) at a time. When (00:09:41) his Republican party having seen people coming out of the more mainstream wing of the party lose or from their point of view discredit the GOP. They were ready for a revolutionary. Of course Reagan proved his revolutionary Stripes (00:09:59) not only by his fiery speech in support of Barry Goldwater in 1964. (00:10:04) Not only by his activities as Governor, but by his challenge to Jerry (00:10:09) Ford in 1976 taking on an incumbent president, if an unelected president through the Republican primary (00:10:17) process that built for Ronald Reagan a core of support. (00:10:22) A strong (00:10:23) unyielding core of support that is tremendously important for any president. It's a cushion that's their unquestioningly backing him. As long as he at (00:10:34) least pays lip service to their needs and their concerns (00:10:37) that enabled him given that core to move out and do (00:10:41) other things and have something to fall back on Jimmy Carter had no core of support. (00:10:46) He didn't have an ideological basis in the party. He was almost an outsider within his own party. He didn't have a basis in terms of what he stood for that brought him a large number of adherents who would back him unquestioningly. He started for a time with some support in the South but it was a Fickle (00:11:04) support that wasn't (00:11:06) there for any deep-seated reasons Ronald Reagan had that core and (00:11:10) continues to have that core and (00:11:11) has cleverly kept that core despite the fact that as president that second half the pragmatic half has been by far the (00:11:19) most significant (00:11:21) Because Ronald Reagan started out believing that he would have to (00:11:25) deal with the legislative process that he would have to find ways to compromise what he (00:11:31) stood for that he would have to set priorities. The real idea log doesn't set priorities among the set of firm and unyielding principles. They're all equal. They're all going to be pushed in the same way failure in one is the same devastating consequence as failure in (00:11:48) another Ronald Reagan. Let's the pragmatic side take over (00:11:52) bus from the beginning changing the budget changing the role of government in American society was far more important to him than doing things on the (00:12:03) social side of the agenda. (00:12:05) Shurik are sure he made passionate speeches, but he never stopped for a minute before pushing those into the background and not wasting precious limited presidential resources to make things happen not getting into a situation where he alienated people on the basis of those issues and it would cause him difficulty making progress on the other issues. (00:12:29) He set priorities and those things move to the back. They're still at the back of course (00:12:35) presidents can do that and end up alienating their core those who believe that these issues are as important or more (00:12:42) important than any others. We know (00:12:44) for example that Jimmy Carter (00:12:47) took on the Equal Rights Amendment (00:12:49) which was important to the Democratic party which he tried to use to bring them into his core and ended up because he didn't do enough. He didn't handle it right. He didn't handle them right alienating them no (00:13:03) matter what he did after a while on the Well rights amendment the (00:13:06) strong supporters of the amendment the core of the democratic party thought it wasn't enough that he wasn't sincere that he was in net inept (00:13:15) Ronald Reagan has been able to set those priorities and yet keep his core intact. Now that's part of another side of his personality the the enormously strong (00:13:26) political instincts most important (00:13:28) though and key to understanding the Reagan presidency is to recognize that there are two Ronald Reagan's lurking inside the same body and it is not as if there is some enormous internal struggle going on that troubles him constantly over Which side will win out. It's not as if there's the good conscience in the bad conscience (00:13:48) constantly whispering in his ears. He has discovered over the years and ability to make them work when he wants them to work one side becomes dominant when he needs it and then gets pushed off into the recesses of the brain while the other (00:14:01) side comes forward when he needs that. Now the second aspect of Ronald Reagan's personality, that's that I think is very important and that fits in with this and that meshes with his with his philosophy and his Persona, Ronald Reagan is an inveterate (00:14:16) Optimist. (00:14:19) This is something that Stockman touches on again and again, but it's something that's been clear for many years (00:14:25) ever since clearly (00:14:26) from his own autobiography. He was a child. He has been an optimist (00:14:30) you get a sense of Ronald Reagan's (00:14:32) personality (00:14:33) when you hear his favorite story a one that he repeats over and (00:14:38) over again because he loves it so much. It's a story about the family that had twin boys (00:14:43) one of whom had the personality such that he was a total unyielding pessimist. Nothing was good. Everything was going to be disaster constantly down in the dumps. The other was a total unyielding (00:14:57) Optimist simply couldn't be shaken from his belief that the greatest things were going to happen and consistent continue to happen. And the parents were deeply worried about both of these children. That one would sink into a despondent Funk no matter what and eventually would come to no good that (00:15:13) the other would never recognize that life indeed is tough has it's difficult moments that you have to deal with them that at some point tragedy will come (00:15:21) and if you aren't prepared that will be the end of you also (00:15:24) and they went through years of analysis with no help. They tried to find ways of dealing with this with no ability to do so (00:15:33) and finally in despair. They turn to a world famous child psychologist who said we need to use shock (00:15:38) treatment. And so we took the two boys took the pessimist and locked him in a room overnight with every toy imaginable everything that a young child would dream of and then took the young Optimist took him down to a stable and locked him overnight in a room filled from floor to ceiling with horse (00:16:01) manure. Came back the next morning and went first to the room of the pessimist as they were about to unlock the door. They heard (00:16:09) racking sobs from within and opened the door (00:16:13) and said well (00:16:14) what could possibly be wrong (00:16:16) and the little pessimistic boy was crying and crying and said, I just know you're going to take all these toys away from me this morning and I'll never see them again. Then they went down towards the stable and they heard (00:16:27) whistling and singing and couldn't (00:16:30) understand it went in and there was the little Optimist with a pitchfork going at it with a Horseman or and they said what is going on here and he turned around and said, I just know there's got to be a pony in here somewhere. (00:16:44) Ronald Reagan thinks there's a pony somewhere. He's always believed that he has always rejected the advice of experts who've told him. This won't work. He believes that somehow it will work out (00:16:58) and somehow in (00:16:59) his storybook life. It has worked out. He is always achieved his goals. He hasn't achieved them all immediately. And obviously he has had plenty of Horsemen were flung in his face. (00:17:10) He lost that nomination in (00:17:12) 1976 back before that in 1968. When he tried to make after only two years as Governor really two years in (00:17:19) political life at the (00:17:21) Republican Convention in Miami when he tried to take on Richard (00:17:25) Nixon and and Nelson Rockefeller at the time and make an end run (00:17:30) around and win the Republican nomination there. He wasn't able to succeed. He is seen times when things haven't worked out. He saw (00:17:38) marriage end in disaster to (00:17:42) Jane Wyman and yet He's always gone from that and believe that it was a temporary setback that he would achieve the goal and he's achieved the goal. (00:17:50) This is of course as you notice if you read Stockman's book (00:17:53) one of The Great frustrations for mr. Stockman and for others because you'd get a stream of advisers coming in and saying to him this isn't going to work. Mr. President. (00:18:02) We're gonna have all these disastrous consequences and then one person would come in most usually according to a Stockman treasury secretary Regan the Echo Man the Yes, man who always told the president what he wanted to (00:18:14) hear who would say don't listen to that. Everything will be just fine and no matter what (00:18:19) everybody else had told him The Optimist in him said there's the (00:18:23) pony and he'd go ahead and do it. Now that's also worked to his advantage in the white house because Ronald Reagan came in at a time and in a context where we wanted an (00:18:33) optimist (00:18:34) Americans were tired of (00:18:36) hearing there's an energy (00:18:37) crisis tighten your belts put on your sweaters turn down. Your thermostats tough times are ahead. We've got (00:18:45) sacrifices. They (00:18:46) didn't want to hear that and they didn't want to hear we've got these hostages were helpless. There's nothing we can do about it. Maybe someday (00:18:54) it'll all work out. But right now we don't have control of our own Destinies. Ronald Reagan's image and Ronald Reagan's theme was yes, we do. We're a great country. We can take charge. It'll all be wonderful that appealed to a side of the American Spirit at a time when we wanted that appeal and that's carried forward. It's also helped him as president (00:19:16) because that brings with it an inner serenity. Ronald Reagan is not pushed and pulled by events day-to-day (00:19:25) that turn out to have difficult consequences. (00:19:28) His guts are not eaten out by a temporary setback. He goes a long Serene (00:19:33) in the belief that it's all going to work out. All right (00:19:35) that we are a people of destiny that he's a man of Destiny and that inner Serenity which has exuded in everything that he does and says in his (00:19:44) body language and in his speeches (00:19:46) is something that also (00:19:47) appeals to Americans. We like to hear it and when it does work out in a way that we think fits what he's been saying, that's all to the better as (00:19:55) well. Okay, that is another important (00:19:59) part of Ronald Reagan. There are other elements that have to be considered (00:20:05) Reagan's life experiences have shaped his worldview. They've shaped his worldview in very important ways. We know of course the Ronald Reagan went on an odyssey from a Franklin Delano Roosevelt supporter from a new deal Democrat something that fit his his (00:20:24) background and conditions growing up in the depression in an Irish Catholic Family where virtually all of his friends and neighbors and cohorts were supporters of (00:20:35) Roosevelt and then gradually making an (00:20:38) ideological transition to becoming a hero of the conservatives. (00:20:43) Yet there's a part of Ronald Reagan which we see coming out again and again going back to those early years which ties him to Franklin (00:20:51) Roosevelt. If you (00:20:53) were to ask Ronald Reagan what one president does he admire the (00:20:56) most? The name that would spring up and it has frequently is Roosevelt. (00:21:02) He sees himself as trying to emulate FDR not in what FDR did but rather in how FDR did it the approach the self-confidence the Swagger almost that he can make things happen dealing in Broad brush strokes and motivating a nation that's (00:21:22) important for him. Now. He did of course have a change of philosophical change. What brought about that philosophical (00:21:29) change again things rooted and Reagan's background part of it. No question was growing up or having at an early stage as an actor an enormously High income by the standards of the day and seeing a tax system that was sharply Progressive that at at the peak of his earning power as an actor had the top bracket of about 90% And from Ronald Reagan's perspective as he saw. Incentive taken away as he saw money taken away. He saw government stepping in and removing (00:22:08) his and I use this term loosely hard-earned dollars (00:22:13) and saw it happening to his colleagues. And as he saw many of the prominent actors of the day cutting back on their work actors and directors acting in only four films a year because why do anymore when 90% of it would be taken off the top Ronald Reagan developed a change in attitude towards the federal government first. This was a government that was stepping in in an unreasonable fashion and warding productivity in the society. And secondly, he came to believe that highly graduated tax rates were sapping the productivity (00:22:53) and growth and energy in the society. I might add it's very interesting. If you'll notice that who are the two (00:23:00) prominent figures out there now in the Congressional Arena pushing for tax reform pushing for a dramatically different tax system and for much sharply rower lower tax rates, Jack Kemp and Bill Bradley coming at it from very different philosophical perspectives. But with one thing in common both were professional athletes earning staggering amounts of money early in life both became very well acquainted with the nature of the tax system before most of the rest of us do and both have developed an enormous passion for changing it and reducing those marginal rates as they saw (00:23:39) their marginal dollars taken away in a way. They didn't like That clearly is is analogous and we see that in Ronald Reagan (00:23:51) Reagan's other (00:23:52) experiences that mattered for him came (00:23:54) at a time when he was the president of the Screen Actors Guild and negotiating (00:23:59) contracts in a way very similar. In fact to Hubert Humphreys experiences with the dfl back at a (00:24:06) similar time. The Screen Actors Guild had an enormous (00:24:10) problem and internal problem with Communists just as Democratic Party politics back during that era (00:24:17) had a real a genuine (00:24:19) struggle with Communists. This was not imagine creatures under the (00:24:24) bed back during the 1940s. We had a very different situation we did have people who were dedicated to Moscow who were very definitely actively involved in institutions of government of Labor and elsewhere Reagan saw this it was a deep and bitter (00:24:44) Difficult struggle and (00:24:45) clearly his worldview the anti-communist (00:24:49) nature of his world view just as with Hubert Humphrey just as with scoop Jackson for that matter was shaped during that time. Although I think that while that was (00:25:00) significant and remain significant for him, (00:25:02) it's also the case that that did not (00:25:05) hit nearly as closely to home (00:25:07) as the the issue of taxes and the other life experiences Ronald Reagan's top priority by far has always dealt with the role of government and domestic Society. He has a strong anti-communism he which is clearly expressed. But that's a secondary issue (00:25:24) for him the role of America and the world is important symbolically. It doesn't hit him as deeply to his roots as the nature of American (00:25:33) society and what we're going to do with the nature of American society nevertheless, all of those things have shaped the Reagan philosophy. (00:25:42) And we can see that Reagan philosophy (00:25:44) Express (00:25:44) itself clearly and concisely in Ronald Reagan State of the Union message has (00:25:51) you watch the State of the Union messages, which of course in part and significant part our laundry lists of things that he wants to do and touching a lot of appropriate basis out there in the audience (00:26:02) nevertheless. When you look at those State of the (00:26:04) Union message has the five that have been delivered in Toto (00:26:08) read through them and look at the broad themes that are there consistently you can see Ronald Reagan's philosophy. You can see it in particular in the device that he's used. In each of the years that he delivers State of the Union messages (00:26:23) of having authentic American Heroes up in the balcony in the audience. When I first saw this when he pointed (00:26:32) out Lenny (00:26:33) skutnik, the young Congressional employee who had jumped into the icy waters of the Potomac to rescue a passenger from the air Florida plane that crashed in the middle of winter in Washington. My first thought was what a cheap Applause line. (00:26:54) All he's doing is is trying to get people to focus on this young fellow who had performed a (00:27:00) courageous act it had nothing to do with anything else. But as time went by I came to realize that it wasn't simply a cheap Applause line that it was a reflection of what Ronald Reagan believes about America and his deeply rooted philosophy that has governed his actions as president and his priorities as president. We've seen a whole series of Heroes since then young people and old people people who have performed heroic acts (00:27:28) of Rescue others who in their daily lives of (00:27:31) expressed heroism a woman who runs a home for (00:27:37) drug-addicted infants who have gotten (00:27:39) their addiction through there through their mothers who had it at Birth trying to wean them from from the powers of heroin a young Oriental woman (00:27:50) who came to this country from Cambodia and then went through (00:27:54) a military academy with honors and was about to graduate all of those things. It's a reflection of deep-seated Reagan philosophy that philosophy very simply is we live in America in the greatest country that the world has ever seen a country (00:28:10) that makes heroic acts every day presences because in this (00:28:17) atmosphere Americans (00:28:19) even people who've come as refugees from far away who become infused with the (00:28:25) atmosphere of America (00:28:26) are able to Leash themselves for an Untold promise with no limit on what they can accomplish as individuals (00:28:38) or as a (00:28:38) society who bring with them the strong and fundamental values of family and neighborhood and who work together because this is America and what is it about America that makes this so wonderful freedom. And what is it about Freedom its freedom from having government stick its nose or any other major institution but government in particular stick its nose into the business of Americans shackle people leash them in ways that keep them from fulfilling that promise and from making the country as great as it can and you can see when Reagan not only points to these Heroes but then pursues the theme of what it is about America that makes these people so wonderful, but really common presences it is that they have less government involvement in their lives more (00:29:33) ability to unleash their creative freedoms than anybody else on Earth and from (00:29:38) Ronald Reagan's perspective that means among other things and particularly (00:29:44) in terms of priorities, two (00:29:46) things first. It means getting government out of areas that it has no business being in Secondly, it means reducing (00:29:55) tack. In particular reducing tax rates. (00:30:00) Ronald Reagan is not a natural Supply cider thinking of all of the the (00:30:06) theoretical elements that fit into supply-side economics, (00:30:10) but one key element of the supply side philosophy the notion that you can reduce the tax burden and actually increase revenues because reducing the tax burden is going to make people more productive fits perfectly within his basic core philosophy sure we can get something for nothing in a sense in that fashion because when you reduce marginal rates and reduce the tax burden people are going to have more incentive to get out there and do things work harder be more efficient. And of course that's going to mean more productivity. So (00:30:47) you can in a sense have something for (00:30:48) nothing that fits perfectly within the (00:30:50) philosophy and of course we've seen this in Regan's (00:30:53) priorities when he came in in 1981 he came in with Two basic goals with the third added on the first was to reduce domestic government reduce spending and reduce programs. The second was to reduce taxes and in particular (00:31:11) to reduce marginal rates and you'll remember in 1981 Reagan's (00:31:15) program included not just cutting backs substantially significantly (00:31:20) on domestic spending in the federal (00:31:22) government, but a three-year plan to reduce marginal tax rates by 10% a (00:31:26) year over the three years. That was the core (00:31:29) of it everything else in taxes. (00:31:31) He had a lot of other changes. He wanted to (00:31:32) implement were secondary all of those other things. He said we'll deal with that further down the road right now. I want 10% a year for three years greatly reducing the marginal (00:31:43) rates at that point. Remember the maximum marginal tax rate was 70% on unearned income. Now the third goal was to greatly increase defense and that fit with Reagan sense that we had become weakened. Vis-à-vis the Russians and that we needed a stronger presence out there in the world and it fit with his (00:32:04) anti-communist philosophy that was (00:32:06) important to Ronald Reagan very important to Ronald Reagan. (00:32:09) But first and foremost the things he always (00:32:12) mentioned first cutting domestic government and cutting tax rates. (00:32:17) Now Reagan managed to succeed by American Standards dramatically in 1981 in achieving those goals. He didn't get quite everything he wanted and the end he had to compromise even on the tax rates instead of getting 10 10 and 10 over 3 years. He got five ten and ten postponed for a (00:32:37) year. So in effect, it was not nearly the same tax cut that he wanted at least in its core term. (00:32:45) He didn't get quite (00:32:46) everything. He wanted on the domestic spending Arena though. He came fairly close. (00:32:52) Nevertheless, he got a lot more than anyone would have expected given the incremental nature of American (00:32:56) politics and he got more accomplished in a six-month period (00:33:02) than we had seen at any other times in modern American history with the (00:33:07) exception of the first hundred days of the Roosevelt administration and the first hundred days of Lyndon Johnson's term after the 1964 election dramatic progress by American Standards. Now, why was Ronald Reagan able to achieve this dramatic progress (00:33:30) really several reasons that put (00:33:31) his presidency into an appropriate context? (00:33:34) Ronald Reagan (00:33:35) is besides being optimistic as very lucky (00:33:39) and Ronald Reagan was lucky in a sense that (00:33:41) having his presidency occur at just the right time. It was a time (00:33:44) when first people desired a change it was a strong need feeling of a need for (00:33:52) Change (00:33:53) second, Ronald Reagan got elected at a time and under a set of conditions that gave him the perception uniformly felt across all (00:34:03) political forces (00:34:04) that he had a mandate for (00:34:06) change. And third Ronald Reagan got what he wanted because he happened to (00:34:11) have partly by luck a group of people around him who were able very quickly to implement a specific plan for change that was there to be handed to the Congress while he (00:34:24) still had the momentum that was necessary to make these changes occur. And for that David (00:34:32) Stockman who was the key (00:34:34) to that plan could not have been done without David Stockman. There was nobody around Ronald (00:34:39) Reagan who had a knowledge of the budget and the elements of the budget (00:34:44) who could have put that plan together quickly. It would have been delayed at least for two or three months and a delay for two or three months would have meant a very different package emerging David Stockman is more responsible for what progress Ronald Reagan made towards his Revolution than anybody else and it's ironic now that he blames himself for the revolution having failed now, let me go back just a little Bit (00:35:09) and one of the things I want to suggest here today is that in many respects the ability of Reagan to get done what he did get done was not clear cut and it was close. It could have easily gone. Another way go back for example to the 1980 election. Now, there are three things that we tend to use to define a mandate in American politics and practically speaking you've got to have all of those of those things you have got to have first a sense that there is a change occurring a breach a change a new (00:35:52) movement coming along. That's one reason. For example, why you don't have the same sense of mandate after the 1984 election despite. The greater. Margin of Reagan's Victory. There isn't a sense of change there. It's a sense of continuity. There was a (00:36:04) change we moved from an incumbent president who got defeated to a new (00:36:07) As an incoming in a (00:36:09) sense give this new president a chance (00:36:13) and and of course that theme promoted by Ronald (00:36:15) Reagan secondly, of course, you have to have a significant presidential victory the greater the victory the (00:36:22) more the sense of mandate that alone is not enough to bring about a mandate in (00:36:26) 1972 Richard Nixon won 49 out of 50 states and (00:36:32) up till that point the greatest landslide in American political history 61 percent of the popular vote, but he (00:36:37) didn't have a mandate widely (00:36:41) perceived an accepted by other actors in the (00:36:43) process. Because he was missing that (00:36:46) third element for a (00:36:48) president to have a mandate. The election has to be seen as something that isn't just the election of an individual but an election that Embraces that individuals party and what he stands for and rejects what has been for that to achieve a mandate. You can't just have a victory for president. You have to be able to reach down the ticket and show a movement all along in the political (00:37:13) process. (00:37:15) Ronald Reagan won big in 1980. He won bigger in 1984. He had a much bigger sense of mandate in 1980 because he brought with him not only big (00:37:25) gains in the House of Representatives 33 seats, which was healthy though, not overwhelming (00:37:30) far more significant. He brought with him a Republican Senate. It was the first Republican control of a chamber of Congress in 25 years. It was not expected going into election Eve every single major political observer in both parties believe that the Republicans were going to gain somewhere around five (00:37:50) to seven seats in the Senate which would have left them without a majority behind by about 53 or 54 (00:37:57) 247 or 46 instead. They won 12 seats an earth-shaking change in the Senate. (00:38:04) Stunning (00:38:04) election winning that majority and that more than anything else led to the belief that this was an unusual election. It wasn't just a rejection of Jimmy Carter. It wasn't just people saying he doesn't deserve another four years. It wasn't just we like Ronald Reagan. He seems pretty good. It was the American people are rejecting the Democratic party (00:38:27) the New Deal and the Great Society (00:38:29) and they are embracing the Republican party and giving them a chance for (00:38:33) change. If there had not (00:38:35) been Republican control of the Senate that mandate would have been much less the opportunity to bring about revolutionary or (00:38:42) shaking changes by American Standards would have been much less and much less would have been (00:38:47) accomplished and it was closed in the end the Republicans won control of the senate in 1980 because they won almost every close election. There were more than a dozen toss-ups the Republicans won all but two. And if back in 1980 we had been able to shift only 50,000 (00:39:10) votes in particular places Nationwide far far less than 1/10 of 1% of all the votes cast (00:39:18) we could move seven Senate seats back into the Democratic (00:39:21) camp. We would have had a very different interpretation of that election in a very different outcome further down the road. Now, of course ever since Mayor Daley died, we can't shift votes back and it did happen that way and of such a revolutions made small changes like that, (00:39:40) but that was everything and it was everything not just because of the definition of mandate and the (00:39:44) sense of momentum coming out but because (00:39:46) having a Republican Senate meant that Ronald Reagan had a piece of the agenda and having that Senate which from the beginning was willing to work in lockstep with him and having David Stockman able to come up with a blueprint in a plan. We were able to get a budget through the Senate going against a hundred and fifty years of (00:40:04) In Tradition, these things traditionally have come through the (00:40:07) house first very quickly and force the house still in the control of the Democrats to vote on the budget issues. And then on the tax issues when they didn't want to vote when it worked to his Advantage not to there's have the Senate remained Democratic even with David Stockman there. The president would have (00:40:23) sent down his budget plan and his tax plan and the Democratic Congress would have said you're absolutely right. Mr. President (00:40:29) governments. Grown too big. We've got waste we've got fraud. We've got a tax system. That's out of hand. We are our defenses of become too weak. We've got to do something about it. You've got a pretty good plan here will give it careful consideration. We'll get back to you and months later after that initial sense of honeymoon and momentum had begun to dissipate we would have seen a congressional (00:40:53) alternative that would have been a pale imitation of what the president had (00:40:56) proposed months of lengthy negotiation and the typical modest (00:41:01) incremental changes in American politics that we normally find. Instead he (00:41:05) got far more far less in the end (00:41:07) than a committed revolutionary like David Stockman wanted but (00:41:11) far more than most presidents get (00:41:14) now. It's the nature of the presidency in the nature of America that we get great movements at rare times almost always they come in the first year of a presidency (00:41:24) almost always if a president makes enormous progress in domestic policy in shaping and changing (00:41:29) domestic policy. (00:41:32) It comes in that first year and that is Then followed by a period of time where presidents use (00:41:36) the greatest Powers they have available to them the negative Powers being able to veto things and keep things from happening (00:41:42) to retain as much as possible of what they've achieved up to that point consolidating what they've gained making modest steps (00:41:49) further in that direction, but (00:41:51) not following one big (00:41:52) gulp of territory with another and yet another (00:41:55) that only happens if we have crisis following (00:41:57) crisis, we move incrementally and slowly in American politics. From the Viewpoint of Stockman that hasn't been enough and in fact the opportunity to really make dramatic gains after that simply could not be achieved Stockman is in Reagan Story. The little boy in the room filled with presence. (00:42:17) He is eternally pessimistic and he (00:42:19) believes that the enormous deficits are going (00:42:22) eventually to eat away. Everything that Reagan has been able to achieve (00:42:26) it is my perspective at this point that it's not going to quite be that way. Although deficits. These deficits are terribly destructive and Stockman's prescriptions for policy and 82 83 and (00:42:38) 84 were by and large the (00:42:39) appropriate prescriptions. We have failed to act and I think in a way that we are ultimately going to see as being tragic on a cancer that is going to cause an enormous problem in the society (00:42:53) nevertheless. I believe that there has been a Reagan Revolution (00:42:57) and that over the longer term (00:42:59) that Revolution by and large is going to succeed. It's going to succeed because thanks to changes that took place before Reagan can't became president and (00:43:08) changes that have occurred during his time. The role of (00:43:10) government is altered (00:43:13) and it's going to continue to be altered in a direction that Ronald Reagan likes first and foremost just simply take a look at the budget (00:43:21) right now. Thanks to changes that have occurred over 20 years, but accelerated by Ronald Reagan the federal budget essentially has two large and growing elements defense and direct benefit payments to individuals the so-called entitlement (00:43:38) programs Social Security Medicare veterans pensions in the like (00:43:45) those two components combined make up almost 3/4 of the federal budget. There are two other components interest on the debt, which is also growing and everything else that discretionary area of domestic spending which has been Ronald Ronald Reagan's passion. He's wanted to get rid of it. Well during Reagan's presidency. It's been cut and cut substantially in real terms and most of the areas that he wants to get rid of have been cut and thanks to deficits and the natural and inherent nature of these other (00:44:17) programs. (00:44:18) There will be continued pressure to reduce that element of spending for a very (00:44:23) long time to come (00:44:24) we have committed ourselves to the basic entitlement programs and clearly on into the future at least as far as we can see when it comes to a government budget and government spending Beyond defense, which is going to continue to grow for a variety of built-in reasons. The major role that government will perform in domestic Society is transferring payments. From one sector to another transferring money through checks from one area of the federal government to people in the society. Now that's a substantial role (00:44:59) for government government, but it's not an obtrusive roll. It's not the same as Government stepping in and shaping housing policy or (00:45:06) education policy or arts and culture or legal services in the like and while most of those programs remain intact in the sense of a true Revolution where you wipe the role of government in domestic Society off the face of the Earth those programs have continued to exist and will continue to exist but they're declining in size and importance and there is literally no discretion left in the federal budget for new programs or new ideas to come forward every time now that we think about a problem we want to solve we are going to have to think away from creating a government (00:45:42) bureaucracy and spending money to do it (00:45:45) that is there and it's (00:45:46) fixed and it is going to be Changing for some time to come and there is (00:45:49) literally no opportunity barring another (00:45:53) Revolution a few years down the road for that to (00:45:56) change then let's look at tax rates Ronald Reagan reduced marginal rates from at least 70% to 50% in his first term and in his second term there is still a very real chance greater than 50/50 that will see marginal tax rates reduced to below 40% (00:46:17) The maximum marginal rate (00:46:19) will see other changes in the tax system that will be modest (00:46:21) changes. The final assessment of that tax program is (00:46:27) probably going to be that it wasn't very much. We didn't see a revolution in taxes. But if we see an eight-year period the maximum marginal rate go from 70 percent to (00:46:37) 40 percent or (00:46:39) as Reagan hoped cut it in half (00:46:40) from 70 percent to 35 (00:46:42) percent that from his perspective is accomplishing another (00:46:46) major goal of the Lucien he intended to bring about we'll see if it has the effect that he anticipates if it unleashes productivity if it really makes people work harder and work more because they get to keep more of their marginal dollars nevertheless (00:46:59) almost everything else in the tax system was window dressing to him. This is the important goal and from that perspective. I think already (00:47:07) we can say if that tax bill (00:47:09) passes given what we know about the budget and given the restraints and pressures that deficits will continue to bring forth at least the next several years. Ronald Reagan has done more to achieve his fundamental goals as president than any we've seen any president that we've seen in a long long (00:47:27) time. This has been a (00:47:31) presidency not without its flaws. (00:47:32) A lot of flaws. (00:47:35) This has been a presidency that has been pushed and pulled by staff changes. Ronald Reagan does not take charge. Ronald Reagan does not get immersed in (00:47:44) details all of the (00:47:45) horror stories that you've heard about Reagan being out of Touch about Reagan not understanding a lot of fundamentals about Reagan falling back on anecdotes that he's been told time and time again are false. All of those stories are true. They're not disputed (00:48:01) and it's very interesting. If you look at the criticism of the stockmen book, for example, people are criticizing (00:48:06) Stockman. They aren't contradicting what he said nobody springing up and saying that's absolutely false. Of course. It's only from his perspective. But the stories are basically true and people know that they're true. I think the American public the frustration that people have over this Teflon president this president who does (00:48:26) work nine to five with a two-hour nap in the afternoon who (00:48:29) doesn't pay attention to details (00:48:31) who doesn't want to be woken up unless there's a compelling reason to do so who makes a lot of mistakes. (00:48:40) All of those things are true. I think the public basically sees somebody who has a vision of the society who is approaching it with confidence. (00:48:48) Then since Serenity (00:48:49) who is making things work at least significantly enough towards the way he expected them to that. They don't much care about that. That's immaterial. They know it. They recognize it they conceded they don't much care (00:49:01) and the bottom line I think is that we are going to see this presidency have a very significant impact on American society the next president. Whoever that may be (00:49:09) from whatever party is going to have to operate through the entire presidency under conditions and restraints that were set and shaped and put into (00:49:19) concrete by Ronald Reagan through his presidency. And with that I heard a bell like I assume that's the end of the round and I'll stop. Thank you very (00:49:29) much. Thank you Norm. Dr. Ernst & he's agreed to answer a couple of questions if there are any. (00:49:56) Okay, the question is (00:49:57) what about the level and tone of partisan (00:49:59) politics confronting this Administration as opposed to other administrations? (00:50:05) We have seen I (00:50:06) think sharper partisanship in this Administration than we have in a while. It's been there for a variety of (00:50:13) reasons. One (00:50:14) reason is that we have a very unusual political configuration right now. We have a split Congress when Ronald Reagan came in as I mentioned earlier and brought with him a Republican Senate the house stayed Democratic. It was not only the first time in a quarter Century that we had a republican Chamber of Commerce. It was the first Congress. (00:50:31) It was the first time in 50 years that we had had Congress split (00:50:36) with one house controlled by the Democrats and the other by the Republicans. Now that's lasted for six years. It's the first time in a century that we've had at last for any length of time that alters. Balance it creates a different set of circumstances and among other things. It's meant a much more sharply partisan House of Representatives because they are you have the anomaly of a democratic de jure majority and de facto minority status with the Republicans in the house believing that they are not only in the minority inside the institution and frustrated as a result of that. But (00:51:12) without any of the perks are advantages that (00:51:14) should come to somebody even being in a de facto majority. They're frustrated and we have seen as a result of the Democrats feeling particularly embattled. They no longer have their allies on the Senate they feel in the minority, but they also feel the pressure to do something because they control the agenda and have a majority of people wanting to protect themselves and creating all kinds of safeguards that have rankled the Republicans giving themselves more of a majority on committees and so forth trying to maintain more control over the agenda and the Republicans in the house. (00:51:46) Feeling frustrated because they're the (00:51:49) only ones who aren't sharing in the Bounty of the Reagan presidency on the other side of the Capitol after all they're in the majority in their chairman all kinds of good things are happening and they're shut out and they out of their frustration and desire to try and get closer to a majority have increased the the partisanship there as well. So that's certainly one major factor here. Another major factor is that we are very clearly having been through now six years of Ronald Reagan at a time of enormous political flux the majority from the perspective of everybody in politics. Not just for now, but for the next several decades is up for grabs the Democrats who have had a an effective majority of one sort or another for several decades see it's slipping away. They're concerned and frightened the Republicans see real possibilities now of moving into a majority of supplanting the the Democrats who became a majority party in the Roosevelt era and continued forward. Under those circumstances people see politics in partisan terms (00:52:51) victories and losses aren't just victories and losses. Now, they are victories and losses that have an impact for decades (00:52:58) and it's an impact on the party not just on the individual. So that's meant a sharply increased partisanship and that's certainly the case in rhetorical terms. (00:53:09) Finally though at (00:53:09) the same time. Remember that we're dealing with the pragmatic (00:53:12) President Ronald Reagan tried in 1981. When he (00:53:15) saw a senate where his 53 Republicans at the beginning we're going to work with him no matter what they were going to march in lockstep with him. He saw House of Representatives were the Democrats had a majority but where there was a very real (00:53:27) possibility of building a (00:53:29) coalition on the right (00:53:32) simply luring away the (00:53:33) most conservative Democrats and he went for (00:53:35) that. And heighten the partisan (00:53:38) Stakes after the 1982 election though when he could no longer build that majority on the right he worked with the Democratic Leadership worked with Tip O'Neill and moved to the center (00:53:49) and that in a sense tone (00:53:50) down the partisanship. (00:53:52) I think now however, despite that continued (00:53:55) pragmatism despite the fact that he still needs to move to the center to win a majority. Both parties are looking Beyond Ronald Reagan. (00:54:02) His presidency is beginning (00:54:03) to wind down even though there are two and a half years left. People are already thinking ahead to the succession. The (00:54:13) parties are looking to their own possibilities this coming (00:54:17) November when Ronald Reagan won't be up and looking Beyond (00:54:20) him. We see the (00:54:21) partisan Stakes higher and the partisan battling emerging even stronger now and I think that it's more than we've seen in quite some (00:54:28) time. Yep. (00:54:39) Okay. The question is the foreign policy situation. Particularly Libya and where that fits in I am in general a little bit disturbed on the foreign policy front because for several reasons, this is a presidency which as I suggested earlier involves enormous delegation, the (00:55:00) president sees (00:55:01) himself in (00:55:03) corporate terms fitting the corporate model. He's the chief executive officer. He sets the broad brush. Then you have a staff including an operating officer and (00:55:14) others who work out the details. He's always been that way (00:55:17) in my view. It worked wonderfully (00:55:19) well for him by and large in the first term because he had a team that was (00:55:24) more professional and politically astute than any I've seen (00:55:27) in modern times with Jim Baker. As Chief of Staff dick Darman as his Deputy can do pristine as the chief of congressional Affairs and and so on it (00:55:38) worked well in foreign policy during a time when you had a national security security advisor delegated a lot of authority in Robert McFarlane who had a good astute sense of the limits of American power and the limits of the power of the president within the political process under Donald Regan. (00:55:57) I don't believe it works very, well. (00:55:59) It fits the broad corporate (00:56:02) model that the president likes but it takes it to another degree Donald Regan's concept is that this model Works through a chief executive officer the president down to a chief operating officer the chief of (00:56:13) staff with a whole bunch of subordinates and the Chief Operating Officer makes all the decisions. (00:56:20) And that's the way he tries to work things and more and more (00:56:22) frankly. He is getting himself into foreign policy areas and making foreign policy (00:56:28) decisions. (00:56:29) He has now a national (00:56:32) security advisor after mr. MacFarlane was in essence forced out who (00:56:38) is seen as a subordinate sees himself as a subordinate and is much more willing (00:56:43) to to (00:56:45) play a subordinate role. We have deep and bitter conflicts between the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense (00:56:53) personal conflicts and policy content.